SGY is significantly undervalued when it is compared to peers. All data is from Yahoo finance.
I list Market cap, Revenue, total cash, Debt, all in $million
SGY: 19, 466, 367, 1520
BCEI: 104, 263, 216, 1090
WRES: 12, 88, 26, 476
HK: 29, 495, 8, 2880
BBEP: 33, 610, 81, 2960
WRES, HK, BBEP will go BK because they have too much debt with too little cash.
SGY and BCEI should survive. They have large amount of cash with reasonable debt.
SGY should be compared to BCEI. Both companies have similar debt ratio. SGY revenue is twice of BCEI, but BCEI has 5 times of market cap of SGY. BCEI is trading at $2.10 as of today, and SGY is only $0.33
BTW, XCO gained 60% today, BBEP gained 21% today. They both are small oil companies. They have much worse balance sheet than SGY.
Don’t mean to predict the trend for oil price, but even as oil price of today, comparing to its peers, SGY fair market value should be $1.5 today.
For $0.33, and with no imminent risk of BK, SGY looks like a screaming buy to me. EVEN if SGY will file BK one day(highly doubt it though), you will not lose a lot of money, you still have chance to bail out. Check out UPLMQ. It filed BK, and now is trading at $76. However, if SGY takes off, we will see it over $1.00 easily. If oil price goes up, it will go back over $5.00.
sold LEU with loss. Don't understand it, but can't fight against the tape.
• Gross profit of $69 million, compared to losses in 2014 and 2013
• Net loss of $187.4 million following non-cash charge of $137.2 million for the impairment of excess reorganization value
• Positive cash flow from operations increases year-end cash balance to $234 million “
Non-cash charge is only 137 million, why did they have 187.4 million net loss? They stated the gross profit of 69 million, and positive cash flow.
UPL, EXXI, SDRL, everyone else has at least doubled, but why KEG?
Thanks for the explanation. This helps!
IPI debt now is $150M, is not so big considering its revenue and cash. If the lender is reasonable, they should reach an agreement. Lot of small oil companies have few millions of cash but billions of debt now, I can list many of them and they are still trading above a dollar.
1. “Average net realized sales price per ton in the fourth quarter was $277, a 20% decrease year over year, and was $339 for 2015, up slightly from full-year 2014.”
That means potash price has not tanked much, at least much better than oil and natural gas. From this point of view, the environment is not too bad for any potash companies. In 2014, IPI was a $14 stock.
2. “The company sold 89,000 tons of potash in the fourth quarter for a full-year total of 587,000 tons, which is down 36% from 2014”
Why has this number been down so much? IPI lost market share? This does not make senses. Typically for most commodity companies, their output is stable year over year, unless they run of mines.
3. “The company had a net loss of $0.26 per share on $42.8 million in revenue, versus consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters of a net loss of $0.11 per share on revenue of $61.67 million.”
Why did they miss revenue so much? Again, this was because they sold much less tons of potash. Why?
4. Insiders bought lot of shares at the end of 2015, at the price of few dollars. Why? The stock purchases were fairly recent. Those executives could not see that they were selling much less tons of potash?
5. According to the conference call, they still have $63.6 million cash in hand, they have also reduced expenses a lot. Bankruptcy does seem an imminent concern, but why is the stock trading like a bankruptcy stock?
Looks like IPI is a good gamble play. If it does not go bankruptcy(they still have lot of cash for a small company), oil price is up, other commodity prices are up, probably potash price will be up as well. We should see IPI to few dollars by the year end.