RNAi has produced more drug failures that Carters has pills. Six billion market cap. What a joke.
Did you read the first sentence "Alnylam ALNY intends to file a clinical trial application". Oh boy, they INTEND to do it! When don't they just put out a press release saying that they intend to get a drug to market or that they intend to make some money some day or that they intend to control their burn rate carefully.
Good lord, now the whole world knows this company is run by idiots! This has to be a first. Every other company I know only puts out a press release when something actually happens or they actually accomplish something. Not ALNY!
I can only surmise that they did this stupid release to get the stock price up a couple more points on Friday by getting a few more fools to buy this snake oil. The technology has had so many failures that the company loses no opportunity to pump itself. And I thought I saw it all. You can't make this stuff up.
I am not saying this because I am short. I am short for the reasons I expressed. You should go short too because this company will never make any money. That's my opinion.
This company is on track to lose $200M a year. In three years, they'll be broke and not have a single drug on the market.
Oh they'll keep touting their "pipeline" to keep this thing afloat in a further secondary, but I doubt they'll ever finish P3 successfully in any clinical trial. If they do, people will learn of the failed technology first hand rather than through earlier precedent.
In the 90s, Ribozyme Pharmaceuticals (used to trade as RZYM) tried to make a go of this technology and failed. Zero Drugs.
In the 00s, Sirna Therapuetics gave it a go and they failed. Zero drugs.
in the 10s, Merck tried and they failed. Zero drugs.
Merck then sold Sirna to a sucker for $175 million. That sucker was ALNY.
All ALNY will do with this technology is separate a fool from his money. The money will go to the ALNY employees and to the firms on Wall Street and the hedgies. They've driven this stock up to an extraordinary valuation. And as they make wild price predictions, like Leerink Swann did the other day, they'll get the retail fools to buy while they unload. And then they'll short it and will make money on the downside. It is just like the dotcom bubble.
Alnylam says on its website that RNAi therapeutics is "breakthrough technology". Who are these people kidding?
This so-called breakthrough technology was developed by Ribozyme Pharmaceuticals in the early 90s. I know because I was there as a shareholder. Ribozyme NEVER got a drug to market. Back then it was also touted as a new breakthrough technology. And after it went NOWHERE, after years of trying, the company operated under a new name, Sirna Pharmacueticals, which too touted it as breakthrough. Merck then acquired Sirna, hoping they could make something of it, which they evidently couldn't since Merck sold Sirna to Alnylam for a fraction of what Merck paid. In fact the purchase of Sirna is written about on Alnylam's website.
In short, this so called "breakthrough technology" has been around for decades. The early patents have now expired. No drug has ever come to market from it by Rybozyme, Sirna or Alnylam. And if Alnylam ever did get a drug to market, it would be years from now. The only thing this company has going for it are a bunch of foolish funds, banks, and retail investors who put their money here, thinking that they are buying a "breakthrough technology". ALNY has a market cap of $6B with no drug near approval, and I'd bet that they never get a drug to market. Now PCYC, on the other hand, has one of the greatest oncology drugs ever produced, and it recently entered the market: Imbruvica. Imbruvica has years of patent protection to go. It will generate billions in sales, and PCYC has a market cap of only $9B. IMHO ALNY is the best bio short out there, and PCYC is the greatest bio long.
yes, it means 320,000 shares were traded. That is nothing compared to what will be traded on Monday.
Keep in mind the shorts were taking positions into the takedown pre-adcom. Then when the adcom brief came out, they got caught with their pants down. The smart ones covered as it climbed into 32.7 post brief release. But there are many more who held out hoping Natpara would get voted down. Well it didn't. Now those shorts have to cover first thing Monday morning because the FDA is going to issue its formal decision within a month. From the brief, the attitude at the adcom meeting, and the close working relationship with NPS, you can tell the FDA wants to approve.
You can also tell from all the wacky posters who just arrived on this board, that the shorts are desperate and that they did not do much homework before shorting this one.
Just so you know, after hours activity is meaningless. It only take a few shares to paint the tape.
Plus over $100M in royalties from Amgen going straight to the bottom line in a few months. The Sensipar royalties alone will contribute to earnings of over $1/share, which would give NPSP a P/E of only 33. That is not much for a company that will have two approved drugs in the marketplace and that owns all rights to them!
They are discussing how to handle data/minimize risk post approval. Looks like it is going to get approved. They still need to hear from NPS before voting.
Looks like there were 12 speakers. Try this too to read about testimonials:
You can feel the heartfelt sentiments of persons who's lives were changed dramatically because of Natpara. There were so many of them who testified too. I would be very difficult for the FDA to deny all these people a normal lifestyle. Such an act would be a tragedy.
The dramatic improvement in lifestyle shows that extraordinary value added by Natpara. And it will justify the drug price and drive the sales. It is easy for the shortest of the shorts to see the value of Natpara and its impact on NPSP market cap.
The stock was 5 bucks in late 2011. Go back to that time frame and you should see my post. I have been on this message board actually since its creation, albeit under other handles. There was neblo, pharmainvestor, drugseller (or something to that effect; he was a pharmacist who the WSJ did an article on). I was here when Immunogen had its great run and crashed and when Imclone too had its great run as well. I also was a sizeable (for an individual) shareholder of Amylin and for Icos. Made enough money in these stocks to buy second homes, classic cars, airplanes, and to travel the world. After this stock, however, I really don't have any other biotechs to invest in. They are all getting way too pricey. Other than NPSP, the only other biotech of which I am aware, which has some room to run is PCYC. My strategy is to hold these two stocks until they are fully valued, then buy a few gold and silver mining companies (these are the only cheap stocks out there). I will then sit back and wait for the market to correct big time as the Fed stops printing and starts raising rates. Actually, I don't think they'll ever do the latter. As soon as the market starts to tank, Janet baby will go into QE4 or 5 (whatever number we are on now). The next round of QE will make precious metals rally, as the whole world will see that the US economy is fully dependent on inflation to keep the house of cards from falling. It is amazing they don't see it now. All those fools buying US treasuries.
Today we should all reflect on those who lost their lives thirteen years ago to some traitors in our government who would stop at nothing in destroying our freedoms to build an empire not simply for Washington. I'd tell you who's behind the traitors in DC, but you wouldn't believe me. But I'll give you a hint: just find out where the one conspirator who helped kill Lincoln (and who escaped) took refuge. That place is where the answer lies. You can start at the Treaty of Verona.
Well if you agree with their $100 price target, then go ahead and short the stock. In the meantime, I'll sit back and await the European approval for Imbruvica. This approval will double the market for the drug, which is your book will make the stock drop about 30%. Good luck with that one. I hope you don't have to sell your place in Naples Tony to cover your losses.
That is about 7% of the float. All these shares will need to be bought back.
All advanced NPSP drugs are now coming to market. The hedged shorts therefore have no reason to hedge anymore, and the fully exposed shorts have to cover or risk losing their behinds big time. They can cover now or wait until more bad news is given to them on Friday. After that, they'll be waiting for yet more bad news re the FDA approval. This bad news (for them) will then be followed by a drug launch, a payout of the loan on Sensipar royalties, and all Senispar royalties going to the NPS bottom line. And on top of all this good news (for us longs), a tender offer could be announced anyday. I sure am glad I am not short on any of the 7M shares.
A few years ago when NPSP was around $5 a share, I published a valuation on the company. It got a lots of thumbs up on this board. Thus far, everything I predicted in the valuation has come to fruition.
Actually, my estimation of Natpara was on the conservative side. But let's take a look again.
What have we got, 60,000 potential patients in the USA?
A cost of $50,000 per patient?
60,000 x 50,000 = $3B
For Gattex, we've got 3,000 patients in the USA
at $395,000 per patient per year
3000 x 395,000 = $1B
For Sensipar, we've got $100,000,000 going to the bottom line beginning mid next year.
Then there is Europe, which we'll just leave out of the valuation to be conservative.
So by 2016, we can easily have incoming revenues of $1B. At 6 times revenues, we get a market cap of $6B or about $60 per share, which is a price increase of about $1/month. If you own 10,000 shares, you'll make $10,000 a month. Not too bad.
Keep in mind, NPSP owns all the rights to Gattex and Natpara and will get all the royalties on Sensipar soon. There will be no debt whatsoever when all the Sensipar royalties go to the bottom line mid 2015.
This company therefore has one big buyout target tattooed to its back. It is very rare to see a small biotech owning all right to two blockbuster drugs.
when Fuerstein puts out messages with hidden meanings, we bought at the orchestrated price take down. All you had to do was take a look at the Natpara clinical trial data. It was nothing short of phenomenal. This has been known for years. It sure is nice making some big dough in a three days. I would thank A.F for improving my balance sheet if I didn't think he was nothing but a two-bit mouthpiece for some hedge funds. But that's his problem, not mine.
The adcom panel will be positive, and FDA approval will be forthcoming this fall. The cake is being baked right now.