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Pharmacyclics Inc. Message Board

hundleyrandy 90 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 23, 2014 12:11 PM Member since: Jan 3, 2011
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  • hundleyrandy hundleyrandy Sep 23, 2014 12:11 PM Flag

    Don't get on my case, go tell Yahoo! and all the other financial news sources. They show he sold 113K each on the 17th and 18th of this month. Only the last 56k was by an option exercise, which he didn't take possession of the shares -- so it too is a sale as far as I am concerned. Frankly I'd believe all those other sources before I'd believe you. And if he still has 300,000 shares, like you say, well then, he just sold about 25% of his position. That is not the kind of act that shows a lot of confidence in the company. Certainly the CEO thinks the company is overvalued or is too risky at these prices and he wants to put his money somewhere else.

  • According to Yahoo! insider transactions, the CEO sold 113,668 shares on 9/17, followed by another 113,668 shares on 9/18. That is a total of 227,336 shares!

    I guess he is on board with Ribozyme, Sirna, Merck, and Novartis. All of these companies dumped RNAi. None of them could get a drug a market, despite spending billions. While the rest of ALNY may be plowing forward with RNAi, the CEO is stepping off the boat.

    Will he buy a condo in Aspen to lend out to his friends at Leerink. Got to pay them back for that $103 price target. Hey, you scratch my back, I'll scratch yours!

  • Reply to

    CEO Cashing OUt

    by hundleyrandy Sep 21, 2014 8:04 PM
    hundleyrandy hundleyrandy Sep 22, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    There is nothing more risky than buying and holding an overvalued, specultaive biotech stock with insider selling and doing so into a FED taper and tightening. When this baby drops, it is going to drop fast!

  • Reply to

    CEO Cashing OUt

    by hundleyrandy Sep 21, 2014 8:04 PM
    hundleyrandy hundleyrandy Sep 22, 2014 9:45 AM Flag

    really? Tell me why. Whatever reason you give, I'll counter it with a better argument. I've been around biotechs for about 24 years. How long have you been investing in biotechs? One thing I can spot is an overvalued biotech stock.

  • hundleyrandy hundleyrandy Sep 21, 2014 9:13 PM Flag

    For once Cramer is not BSing.

  • hundleyrandy by hundleyrandy Sep 21, 2014 8:04 PM Flag

    The ALNY CEO, John Maraganore, sells 113,668 shares at $77.71/share. He made almost $9 million dollars on the transaction. Doesn't look like he has a lot of faith in the technology and the present market capitalization!

    I guess he also doesn't share the Leerwink Swann view of a target price of -- what was it? -- $113?

  • hundleyrandy hundleyrandy Sep 21, 2014 1:19 PM Flag

    I would also add that even if Patisiran makes it to market, the market is not very large. There are not many persons who have ATTR in the USA. And the P2 trial was an open label trial with only 28 patients.

    If you are looking for an orphan drug company that has potential, try NPSP. They already have a few drugs on the market, one being considered by the FDA at present (ruling next month), and a market cap 1/2 that of ALNY. Three of their drugs are blockbusters or near blockbuster. One is licensed out, and all royalties ($120M) will go to straight to the bottom line mid 2015. That drug, Sensipar, will drive $1/share in earnings next year. And NPSP owns all rights to the others, making the company a take out target.

  • Reply to

    ALNY is Fools' Gold

    by hundleyrandy Sep 18, 2014 9:20 PM
    hundleyrandy hundleyrandy Sep 21, 2014 1:08 PM Flag

    Potential is always beyond anyone's imagination. So too are stock losses. When this high flyer goes from $80 to $20 and then to single digits you'll see. What we have now is a bubble in the market, which is causing "investors" to take risks that they would not normally take in sound market. We saw this in the year 2000 with stocks, in 2007 with housing, and now is 2014 with stocks again. Looks like we are in a Fed induced 7 year bubble cycle. QE ends next month. No newly printed dead presidents will be entering circulation like before, and thus the impetus for driving stocks higher will subside. The market will correct just like it did the past few times QE was ended.

  • hundleyrandy hundleyrandy Sep 21, 2014 1:01 PM Flag

    I am making statements based on facts. Ribozyme had good phase 2 data as well. In phase 3 trials against placebo it failed. Sure Genzyme and Sanofi are not fools, but that doesn't mean that they won't make a risky or bad business decision. Look at Merck, they paid $1.1B for Sirna, and then wrote off the investment and dumped what was left on Alnylam for $175M not too long thereafter. Merck certainly had high hopes for RNAi when it paid $1.1B! That is a lot of dough, mind you. They obviously learned something shortly after that purchase, which they didn't know beforehand. I'd suspect what Merck learned is what Genzyme and Sanofi are about to learn, as well as ALNY shareholders: it is very difficult to get a genetic manipulation drug to market. Very difficult.

    And Patisiran is not going to "be in the market very soon." To make such a statement shows you know very little about drug development. First the P3 trial is months if not years away from completion. Once the trial is done, the data needs to be analyzed, not just for efficacy but also for safety. Even if it is effective, there will likely be side effects. Messing around with people's gene's is risky business. After the data is compiled, they'll need to talk to the FDA and make their own decision to see whether a biologics application is warranted or whether more trials need to be conducted (re dosing etc.). To prepare a NDA takes about 6 months. And then the FDA will take at least 6 more months. So you are looking at say a year to complete the trial, 6 months to evaluate data, 6 months to prepare the NDA, and 6 months to wait for the FDA decision. That is 2.5 years and that is in essentially a best case scenario!

  • hundleyrandy hundleyrandy Sep 18, 2014 10:54 PM Flag

    RNAi has produced more drug failures that Carters has pills. Six billion market cap. What a joke.

  • Did you read the first sentence "Alnylam ALNY intends to file a clinical trial application". Oh boy, they INTEND to do it! When don't they just put out a press release saying that they intend to get a drug to market or that they intend to make some money some day or that they intend to control their burn rate carefully.

    Good lord, now the whole world knows this company is run by idiots! This has to be a first. Every other company I know only puts out a press release when something actually happens or they actually accomplish something. Not ALNY!

    I can only surmise that they did this stupid release to get the stock price up a couple more points on Friday by getting a few more fools to buy this snake oil. The technology has had so many failures that the company loses no opportunity to pump itself. And I thought I saw it all. You can't make this stuff up.

  • Reply to

    ALNY is Fools' Gold

    by hundleyrandy Sep 18, 2014 9:20 PM
    hundleyrandy hundleyrandy Sep 18, 2014 9:58 PM Flag

    Sometime before Monday, I will try to take some time out to tell you all about the conversation I once had with Ribozyme's CEO.

  • hundleyrandy hundleyrandy Sep 18, 2014 9:29 PM Flag

    I am not saying this because I am short. I am short for the reasons I expressed. You should go short too because this company will never make any money. That's my opinion.

    This company is on track to lose $200M a year. In three years, they'll be broke and not have a single drug on the market.

    Oh they'll keep touting their "pipeline" to keep this thing afloat in a further secondary, but I doubt they'll ever finish P3 successfully in any clinical trial. If they do, people will learn of the failed technology first hand rather than through earlier precedent.

  • hundleyrandy by hundleyrandy Sep 18, 2014 9:20 PM Flag

    In the 90s, Ribozyme Pharmaceuticals (used to trade as RZYM) tried to make a go of this technology and failed. Zero Drugs.

    In the 00s, Sirna Therapuetics gave it a go and they failed. Zero drugs.

    in the 10s, Merck tried and they failed. Zero drugs.

    Merck then sold Sirna to a sucker for $175 million. That sucker was ALNY.

    All ALNY will do with this technology is separate a fool from his money. The money will go to the ALNY employees and to the firms on Wall Street and the hedgies. They've driven this stock up to an extraordinary valuation. And as they make wild price predictions, like Leerink Swann did the other day, they'll get the retail fools to buy while they unload. And then they'll short it and will make money on the downside. It is just like the dotcom bubble.

  • Alnylam says on its website that RNAi therapeutics is "breakthrough technology". Who are these people kidding?

    This so-called breakthrough technology was developed by Ribozyme Pharmaceuticals in the early 90s. I know because I was there as a shareholder. Ribozyme NEVER got a drug to market. Back then it was also touted as a new breakthrough technology. And after it went NOWHERE, after years of trying, the company operated under a new name, Sirna Pharmacueticals, which too touted it as breakthrough. Merck then acquired Sirna, hoping they could make something of it, which they evidently couldn't since Merck sold Sirna to Alnylam for a fraction of what Merck paid. In fact the purchase of Sirna is written about on Alnylam's website.

    In short, this so called "breakthrough technology" has been around for decades. The early patents have now expired. No drug has ever come to market from it by Rybozyme, Sirna or Alnylam. And if Alnylam ever did get a drug to market, it would be years from now. The only thing this company has going for it are a bunch of foolish funds, banks, and retail investors who put their money here, thinking that they are buying a "breakthrough technology". ALNY has a market cap of $6B with no drug near approval, and I'd bet that they never get a drug to market. Now PCYC, on the other hand, has one of the greatest oncology drugs ever produced, and it recently entered the market: Imbruvica. Imbruvica has years of patent protection to go. It will generate billions in sales, and PCYC has a market cap of only $9B. IMHO ALNY is the best bio short out there, and PCYC is the greatest bio long.

  • Reply to

    Anyone who thinks this should go up on news

    by in4thedeal Sep 12, 2014 7:52 PM
    hundleyrandy hundleyrandy Sep 12, 2014 8:36 PM Flag

    yes, it means 320,000 shares were traded. That is nothing compared to what will be traded on Monday.

    Keep in mind the shorts were taking positions into the takedown pre-adcom. Then when the adcom brief came out, they got caught with their pants down. The smart ones covered as it climbed into 32.7 post brief release. But there are many more who held out hoping Natpara would get voted down. Well it didn't. Now those shorts have to cover first thing Monday morning because the FDA is going to issue its formal decision within a month. From the brief, the attitude at the adcom meeting, and the close working relationship with NPS, you can tell the FDA wants to approve.

    You can also tell from all the wacky posters who just arrived on this board, that the shorts are desperate and that they did not do much homework before shorting this one.

  • Reply to

    Anyone who thinks this should go up on news

    by in4thedeal Sep 12, 2014 7:52 PM
    hundleyrandy hundleyrandy Sep 12, 2014 7:55 PM Flag

    Just so you know, after hours activity is meaningless. It only take a few shares to paint the tape.

  • hundleyrandy hundleyrandy Sep 12, 2014 7:54 PM Flag

    Plus over $100M in royalties from Amgen going straight to the bottom line in a few months. The Sensipar royalties alone will contribute to earnings of over $1/share, which would give NPSP a P/E of only 33. That is not much for a company that will have two approved drugs in the marketplace and that owns all rights to them!

  • Reply to

    updates from twitter

    by faosto Sep 12, 2014 3:22 PM
    hundleyrandy hundleyrandy Sep 12, 2014 3:51 PM Flag

    REMS (risk evalutation and mitigation) is the topic. FDA is asking if they should recommend a REMS.

  • Reply to

    updates from twitter

    by faosto Sep 12, 2014 3:22 PM
    hundleyrandy hundleyrandy Sep 12, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    They are discussing how to handle data/minimize risk post approval. Looks like it is going to get approved. They still need to hear from NPS before voting.

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