You should not take some analysts word for the market on a drug. Do the math yourself. Just look up the incidence of the indication, take that number and multiply it by the %age of persons you estimate who will take the drug (divide that by 1.5 if you want to be conservative) and multiply that by the cost per year of the drug and then multiply that by 6. The final number will give you the estimated market cap of the company 5 years post approval. That is your conservative estimate. Best of luck with your investment. I'll sit this one out for now.
You are right: I know BAN2401 is not an ADP treatment. ADP is the easier indication for Pima; the real money, however, lies with alzheimers or AD. I am sure you know this. BAN2401 is going to get to the market first for alzheimers. I am sure you know this too. As such it is going to change the whole playing field. What remains is ADP, or what remains of ADP, is not going to be that great of a market. Alzheimers is where the big money resides, and BAN2401 is going to get there first. It will add another $60B of market cap to BIIB post approval. I own no stock in ACAD or BIIB, but would buy the latter on a correction before I would buy the former. ACAD has a gap to fill too. You show me how pima for ADP post BAN2401 approval is going to bring in $400M in annual revenue to ACAD in short order and I will rethink.
ACAD shareholders seemed to have totally missed the good news on this drug. It demonstrated such good performance in P1 for alzheiners, that it has been moved into P3, totally leap frogging Pimavanserin(tm) for ADP. BIIB's BAN2401 thus will likely get FDA approval long before pimavanserin gets into a pivotal trial for alzhiemers. The approval is going to make it much more difficult for pimavanserin to achieve approval and to achieve approval with substantial sales for this indication. The pimavanserin alzheimers pivotal trial may very well be for those persons who have failed BAN2401. The present pimavanserin indication for ADP is not that large in comparison to ADP.
Given the preclinical demonstration of efficacy in mice, the odds may be slightly greater than 50/50 for efficacy of CGF166. The CEO's recent mention of the drug may stem from something he has learned about the product from the present clinical trial. Time will tell.
Novartis' CEO's recent comments on CGF166, particularly in written form, show that CGF166 is very much on his radar. If the P1 trial starts to show promise re efficacy, this would be huge news, which would drive Novartis' stock. Usually in a company the size of Norvartis, one drug in the clinic isn't all that meaningful with respect to the firm's market capitalization. But this drug will be a little different. Why? Because there are so many persons with hearing loss. In the USA, you are looking at almost 30 million persons: nearly one in ten. But the effect any sign of efficacy will have on Novartis will be small in comparison to the effect on Genvec.
The present treatment, a cochlear implant, costs about $40k, isn't that effective, and is more invasive to install. If the drug shows signs of promise in any of these first patients, the move in GNVC will be through the roof. If you take, let's say, 20M patients (USA alone) and multiply that by $100,000 per patient, you get $2 trillion in sales! Even if the price is only $25,000, you'd have $500B! And even if only 2,000,000 ask for the drug, you'd have $50B! If GNVC gets 10%, it gets $5 billion without doing a single thing. All that money goes straight to the bottom line.
Looking at these numbers, if we take the smallest case scenario outlined above (2M patients at $25K), you get a stock price of $1764 at a conservative multiple of 6 times sales. Of course we are looking at outrageous numbers here. Part of the reason for this is the enormous sales potential, but also the small number of shares outstanding for GNVC.
Thus the moment there is a mention of a patient who has improved hearing because of CGF166, you are going to see GNVC stock price move into 3 digits very fast. Thus upside is huge. If the drug fails, the stock goes back to 50 cents. So you trade a gain of hundreds for a loss of $3.5/share.
That is what this company is selling for at the present stock price. You get the wells, land, buildings and equipment for free. This stock is a no-brainer at this price.
Looks like we have reached the bottom in oil on the COMEX. It will hang out around here, that is, in the 45 to $70/B range for the next 6 months. Then when Janet announces QE4, oil prices will move up rather swiftly to their old highs. Silver prices also will no longer be able to be contained in the teens; they will reach new all time highs.
You did not include EU sales, which would bring in another $500M to Pharmacyclics. But then on the other side of the equation, there are all the R&D expenses on future products and trials and the Federal and State taxes. The EU sales add another 100%, and the taxes would almost subtract 45% of the net -- so we end up with your market cap estimate or slightly more .
Profit margins on pharmaceuticals run in excess of 80%. Since Imbruvica(tm) is a pill, it is easy to produce, particularly when compared to monoclonal antibodies. And since the users demand it, there is no need to advertise. When volumes run at max, you can get margins as high as 95%. At a billion plus in sales I'd say 90% is a good estimate, 80% if you want to be conservative.
Excellent point! In fact, I didn't catch that the first time I scanned the press release. The European market is just as large, if not larger, than the US market. This means total revenues from Imbruvica will be approaching $2 billion next year. Anyone know what the royalty rate is for EU sales?
"For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2014, U.S. net product revenue for IMBRUVICA® (ibrutinib) is expected to be approximately $492 million. For the fourth quarter of 2014, U.S. net product revenue is expected to be approximately $185 million, which would represent an approximately 31% sequential increase compared to the quarter ended September 30, 2014.
As of December 31, 2014, the unaudited balance of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities is anticipated to be in excess of $850 million. Milestone revenue earned from its IMBRUVICA co-development and co-commercialization partner Janssen Biotech, Inc. during the fourth quarter of 2014 was $100 million, and totals $220 million for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2014.
For 2015, we anticipate U.S. net product revenue of approximately $1 billion for IMBRUVICA, representing a 103% increase over the expected 2014 U.S. net product revenue."
SSRI and PAAS have awesome balance sheets. As soon as AG prices move up, these two stocks will make the greatest gains.
Unlike the great balance sheets of SSRI and PAAS, the EU countries and the USA don't have such things to brag about. The trouble in Europe is now only just beginning. Even Germany is in trouble with the stupid Russian boycott. So now you've got Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France, and Germany on the brink. And there is nothing to write home about in the UK either. And then you've got Japan with the greatest debt to GDP ever seen in post WW2 history. The Great Deformation, as David Stockman calls it, is upon us. With the worries of this deformation comes the run to safe havens, of which physical AG is the best. Those who haven't bought now will be fighting for a chair as the music begins to stop.
Another good action by management. You see too many companies doing buybacks when their stocks are at all time highs. PAAS, in contrast, is doing it when their stock is out of favor and silver prices are driven to extraordinary lows. This is the great advantage of having a good balance sheet. The buyback not only creates a floor on the stock price, but it also will drive the share price up faster as silver prices accelerate going into 2015.
Ted Butler, who follows the silver market closer than anyone, believes JPM has amassed the largest physical holdings of silver (they;ve been the major buyer of all those silver eagles) in anticipation of an upcoming AG shortage on the COMEX.
Starting 1-2-15 we return to the move up. Those who lost money buying in the $120 to $145/share range will no longer be selling. The Gilead spill over will be behind us.
That WM indication, which has a PDUFA date a few months out, will be approved in record time. I expect FDA action in February. EU sales are going to be hitting the revenue numbers soon, causing a doubling in the rate of increase in revenues.
When we get more good news on the Multple Myeloma indication, it is basically game over for the shorts; we move to $200/share, if JNJ does not step in to take us there sooner with a tender offer.
Also, the FED is going to keep adding $$ into the money supply, so the markets are going to further melt up. There will be no rate increases in 2015, despite earlier indications of doing the same. That talk will all be put aside with the economy slowing. PCYC is considered to be a "safe haven" as most growing biotechs are viewed when the economy slows.
No it doesn't imply they have no cash flow. It is just that the cash flow has been cut by about 50% with the price drop. If they loose $12 million next quarter they have no cash and have to borrow more. Keep in mind the FED has ended QE; we are therefore going into deflation, which means prices are going to drop and stay low. The drop in oil prices is just the tip of the iceberg, just like subprime was the tip in 2008. I remember all those pundits saying asset prices were not in trouble then. Well those same fools are back saying asset prices, which includes oil, are going to stay above water again. Time will tell. I have taken my loss on this one. I'm not one to keep looking in the rear view mirror. Bye.
Chief business officer resigns. Brings back memories of the CEO of Enron resigning just before the whole company imploded. RNAi has always been a pipedream and always will be one. I also remember when the eariest precursor to ALNY, RZYM, had its CEO resign. That company crashed and was repackaged as another company, which was then taken up by ALNY. There have been so many attempts to make RNAi work by SO many entities, and none of them have succeeded. Why would anyone expect ALNY to be any different. Clearly the head of business operations sees it this way.
The problem with EOX is that the company has little cash on hand ($12.6M). If the oil price stays this low for 6 months, they are in trouble. They go further into debt, provided the revolving facility stays open. If it doesn't they go under, do they not? In any case, they have no hope of being profitable, unless oil prices rise dramatically. It does not appear that such is going to happen anytime soon. At first blush, you'd think these Bakken companies are driven to absurdly cheap levels, but on a deeper look, you can see that the prices are justified and are totally dependent on further cash inputs.