Icahn is old school. He is buying the old media that no one wants anymore. No one buys newspapers or watches TV for their news. The mass media has been lying to the people for so long, and the lies keep getting bigger, that people are tired of paying for propaganda. The smart folks read the internet and buy books. This stock is already at a P/E of 23! And that is for an old school propaganda media enterprise that is has a dying demographic!
While Icahn followed me into Amylin, he got in too early. I was already in and out and then in again once the amended filing was in. I bought in the single digits and lower teens on the second round of buying, while he bought early in the 20s and held throughout the big correcction. I got out before the bad FDA action. Made money both times.
I was also long with him on Herbalife. Didn't hold as long as he did; so, he made a few more bucks than me there. This time, however, he is out of his mind. Buying an over-priced stock, selling a product that no-one wants, into the taper, is no way to make money. He just said that a major correction is in the weather. I wonder if old age is getting to him.
There is not gap at the 108 area. That gap was just filled. Look at a shorter term chart.
Never seen that happen before. It will be announced as soon as the deal is struck with the underwriter. I'll bet they are talking to some firms this week or next.
FB is correcting just like the rest of the overvalued stocks out there. It must because the FED is stopping their inflation, i.e., QE. How far down will the correction go before Janet Baby turns her printing press back to full speed?
yeah, you were seeing "this pattern" as QE was in full force. Well now its being tapered. So the pattern you've been seeing will be tapered too. FB is correcting like the rest of the market as the inflation is being tapered, i.e, QE ending, at least until Janet Baby turns it back on again.
There is no good news that can come out now. The data is already out, and PBYI is partnered with Pfizer, are they not? They also have no other drugs in the pipeline. The only thing for Puma to do now then is to put together the NDA and file it. Without any good news forthcoming and with the NDA and FDA action so far out, you will see a correction in the stock price. There is a gap to fill. But this won't happen until post secondary announcement.
I would definitely bet on a secondary. All they need to sell is 10M shares and they raise $2B. Keep in mind, Wall Street wants a piece of the action, and Puma needs more funds for the next few years to finance the NDA and the market launch. They'll need more than $195M for that alone if they want any margin of safety. A lot can go wrong from now until FDA approval. They also need more shares outstanding now to make the company more accessible to WS and hedgies. Right now there are too few shares to trade. This keeps people away.
My prediction: the secondary will be priced at $170 to $190/share. It will be announced within a month.
At $200/share, it is a $15B company. It is easily worth that price now because sales alone could easily be around $15B in 5 years. All you need is good data in a solid cancer indication or in an autoimmune indication or another ASCO like the most recent and there is no looking back (there really is no looking back now actually). Both of the former are looking very promising at present. Keep your eye on P2 for autoimmune particularly. At 6 x sales you get a $90B market cap, making $200/share look like chump change. It is the lack of side effects that put this drug into a new sales paradigm. You can try it on various off-label indications with little risk to the patient. You can also use it first line with patient approval/awareness and without worrying about destroying other organs.
An oncology pill with great performance and little side effects. This drug is a patient and investor dream come true.
Guidance is not a value added activity for this company. Better to put resources elsewhere. And who gives a rat's behind about guidance? Anyone who follows biotech's knows this thing is going to explode sales-wise. Because some kind people give us the RX numbers, its pretty easy to follow/predict sales.
It would be nice to have an oncologist speak on the subject of off label use for the breast cancer indication. I suppose there are many woman out there who would be willing to try a pill for a few weeks before having their breasts removed.
Pharmacyclics (PCYC). The FDA just expanded the label for Imbruvica. Great performing drug relative to competition with little side effects to speak up. Imbruvica(tm) will be selling in the billions soon. Fastest growing oncology product to enter the market. PBYI's drug is going to take awhile before it get to market.
Who believes these numbers? Of course, we will see the usual revision downward in a few weeks. And, as usual, no one will be listening when that happens. In the interim, the fools will listen to the fools on CNBC talking this number up today. The economy is barely growing, and this is supposed to be the recovery? This means we are going to have the recession from hell when it happens.
and so does UAL. Go figure. All this money printing is giving us higher commodity prices, cutting into the profits of carriers like UAL. You can only inflate so much before travel becomes cost prohibitive to many. Of course, if we were to have the converse, deflation, you'd see travel come to an immediate halt. Thus, it is either watch a slow death to inflation or watch a quick death to deflation. Either way, the economy has to reset to normal prices and interest rates before we have a real recovery. In the end, we'll see bankruptcy again for UAL. It is only a matter of time.
You won't see this stock make any big gains for a long time without money printing courtesy of the FED. Now that the taper is coming to an end, the money flow into the stock market is going to dwindle. Stocks will no products and no earnings are therefore at great risk. This, of course, is the category to which ALNY falls into.
Yes, lots of ifs with this stock. Too many for a stock with a $4B market cap.
If want to buy something that is under priced and has no "ifs" take a look at PCYC. They've got the best blood cancer drug out there, Imbruvica, fresh with an expanded label by the FDA, and it is a pill that has no side effects to write home about! The folks in Europe are ready to approve it too. The FDA acted three months in advance! Never seen from a government agency. Rituxan is the closest thing to it, an intravenously delivered monoclonal antibody, and it sells about $9B a year. PCYC's market cap is only $9B, which is what Imbruvica's annual sales will be with these quick label expansions by the FDA.
I meant to say UAL not Delta in the first sentence. Sorry.
When you have excess debt, that should be the top priority. It looks, however, that the stock price is more of a concern to the execs. Reducing the number of shares outstanding is going to be of no help when sales slow down. Then a souond balance sheet will be the most important.