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NPS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

hundleyrandy 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 13, 2015 8:00 PM Member since: Jan 3, 2011
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  • hundleyrandy by hundleyrandy Jan 13, 2015 8:00 PM Flag

    That is what this company is selling for at the present stock price. You get the wells, land, buildings and equipment for free. This stock is a no-brainer at this price.

    Looks like we have reached the bottom in oil on the COMEX. It will hang out around here, that is, in the 45 to $70/B range for the next 6 months. Then when Janet announces QE4, oil prices will move up rather swiftly to their old highs. Silver prices also will no longer be able to be contained in the teens; they will reach new all time highs.

  • Reply to

    Notice what information they did not release

    by jackmormon10 Jan 12, 2015 10:45 PM
    hundleyrandy hundleyrandy Jan 13, 2015 7:53 PM Flag

    You did not include EU sales, which would bring in another $500M to Pharmacyclics. But then on the other side of the equation, there are all the R&D expenses on future products and trials and the Federal and State taxes. The EU sales add another 100%, and the taxes would almost subtract 45% of the net -- so we end up with your market cap estimate or slightly more .

  • Reply to

    Notice what information they did not release

    by jackmormon10 Jan 12, 2015 10:45 PM
    hundleyrandy hundleyrandy Jan 13, 2015 6:02 PM Flag

    dalglish,

    Profit margins on pharmaceuticals run in excess of 80%. Since Imbruvica(tm) is a pill, it is easy to produce, particularly when compared to monoclonal antibodies. And since the users demand it, there is no need to advertise. When volumes run at max, you can get margins as high as 95%. At a billion plus in sales I'd say 90% is a good estimate, 80% if you want to be conservative.

  • Reply to

    Notice what information they did not release

    by jackmormon10 Jan 12, 2015 10:45 PM
    hundleyrandy hundleyrandy Jan 13, 2015 9:23 AM Flag

    Excellent point! In fact, I didn't catch that the first time I scanned the press release. The European market is just as large, if not larger, than the US market. This means total revenues from Imbruvica will be approaching $2 billion next year. Anyone know what the royalty rate is for EU sales?

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------

    "For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2014, U.S. net product revenue for IMBRUVICA® (ibrutinib) is expected to be approximately $492 million. For the fourth quarter of 2014, U.S. net product revenue is expected to be approximately $185 million, which would represent an approximately 31% sequential increase compared to the quarter ended September 30, 2014.

    As of December 31, 2014, the unaudited balance of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities is anticipated to be in excess of $850 million. Milestone revenue earned from its IMBRUVICA co-development and co-commercialization partner Janssen Biotech, Inc. during the fourth quarter of 2014 was $100 million, and totals $220 million for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2014.

    For 2015, we anticipate U.S. net product revenue of approximately $1 billion for IMBRUVICA, representing a 103% increase over the expected 2014 U.S. net product revenue."

  • hundleyrandy by hundleyrandy Dec 31, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    SSRI and PAAS have awesome balance sheets. As soon as AG prices move up, these two stocks will make the greatest gains.

    Unlike the great balance sheets of SSRI and PAAS, the EU countries and the USA don't have such things to brag about. The trouble in Europe is now only just beginning. Even Germany is in trouble with the stupid Russian boycott. So now you've got Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France, and Germany on the brink. And there is nothing to write home about in the UK either. And then you've got Japan with the greatest debt to GDP ever seen in post WW2 history. The Great Deformation, as David Stockman calls it, is upon us. With the worries of this deformation comes the run to safe havens, of which physical AG is the best. Those who haven't bought now will be fighting for a chair as the music begins to stop.

  • hundleyrandy by hundleyrandy Dec 31, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    Another good action by management. You see too many companies doing buybacks when their stocks are at all time highs. PAAS, in contrast, is doing it when their stock is out of favor and silver prices are driven to extraordinary lows. This is the great advantage of having a good balance sheet. The buyback not only creates a floor on the stock price, but it also will drive the share price up faster as silver prices accelerate going into 2015.

    Ted Butler, who follows the silver market closer than anyone, believes JPM has amassed the largest physical holdings of silver (they;ve been the major buyer of all those silver eagles) in anticipation of an upcoming AG shortage on the COMEX.

  • hundleyrandy by hundleyrandy Dec 31, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    Starting 1-2-15 we return to the move up. Those who lost money buying in the $120 to $145/share range will no longer be selling. The Gilead spill over will be behind us.

    That WM indication, which has a PDUFA date a few months out, will be approved in record time. I expect FDA action in February. EU sales are going to be hitting the revenue numbers soon, causing a doubling in the rate of increase in revenues.

    When we get more good news on the Multple Myeloma indication, it is basically game over for the shorts; we move to $200/share, if JNJ does not step in to take us there sooner with a tender offer.

    Also, the FED is going to keep adding $$ into the money supply, so the markets are going to further melt up. There will be no rate increases in 2015, despite earlier indications of doing the same. That talk will all be put aside with the economy slowing. PCYC is considered to be a "safe haven" as most growing biotechs are viewed when the economy slows.

  • Reply to

    Little Cash on Hand

    by hundleyrandy Dec 19, 2014 12:00 PM
    hundleyrandy hundleyrandy Dec 19, 2014 2:50 PM Flag

    No it doesn't imply they have no cash flow. It is just that the cash flow has been cut by about 50% with the price drop. If they loose $12 million next quarter they have no cash and have to borrow more. Keep in mind the FED has ended QE; we are therefore going into deflation, which means prices are going to drop and stay low. The drop in oil prices is just the tip of the iceberg, just like subprime was the tip in 2008. I remember all those pundits saying asset prices were not in trouble then. Well those same fools are back saying asset prices, which includes oil, are going to stay above water again. Time will tell. I have taken my loss on this one. I'm not one to keep looking in the rear view mirror. Bye.

  • Chief business officer resigns. Brings back memories of the CEO of Enron resigning just before the whole company imploded. RNAi has always been a pipedream and always will be one. I also remember when the eariest precursor to ALNY, RZYM, had its CEO resign. That company crashed and was repackaged as another company, which was then taken up by ALNY. There have been so many attempts to make RNAi work by SO many entities, and none of them have succeeded. Why would anyone expect ALNY to be any different. Clearly the head of business operations sees it this way.

  • hundleyrandy by hundleyrandy Dec 19, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    The problem with EOX is that the company has little cash on hand ($12.6M). If the oil price stays this low for 6 months, they are in trouble. They go further into debt, provided the revolving facility stays open. If it doesn't they go under, do they not? In any case, they have no hope of being profitable, unless oil prices rise dramatically. It does not appear that such is going to happen anytime soon. At first blush, you'd think these Bakken companies are driven to absurdly cheap levels, but on a deeper look, you can see that the prices are justified and are totally dependent on further cash inputs.

  • Reply to

    Now AstraZeneca Collaboration

    by rightinvest02 Nov 4, 2014 7:04 AM
    hundleyrandy hundleyrandy Nov 4, 2014 8:27 PM Flag

    Notice that they are moving Imbruvica(tm) into solid tumors. Any good data In solid tumors will send the stock to the moon.

  • Reply to

    I smell a buy out...................

    by schmuchatelly Nov 4, 2014 11:27 AM
    hundleyrandy hundleyrandy Nov 4, 2014 8:21 PM Flag

    If JNJ offered $250/share, they'd get the company. Shareholders would vote to tender. Management doesn't own enough to stop a tender offer of that size.

  • hundleyrandy by hundleyrandy Nov 4, 2014 8:13 PM Flag

    Earnings and revenues blew away estimates. All those poor analysts, none of whom could figure this company out, are going to have to make major revisions to next quarter and next year earnings and revenues. By the end of 2015, we'll be trending towards $2B in annual sales and earnings of about $8/share. I expect company to report about $4/share for 2015. A P/E of 50 gets us $200/share in just a few months. But if autoimmune results or MM results come in good, you can throw all that out the window. Those indications would keep us in PE 100 territory or $400/share. I sure would like to see them start a breast cancer trial. Good results there get us to $1000/share.

NPSP
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