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Cytokinetics, Incorporated Message Board

huntw3 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 11, 2014 4:52 PM Member since: Sep 29, 2010
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  • Reply to

    how many flubbed words?

    by checker_soft Jun 11, 2014 4:41 PM
    huntw3 huntw3 Jun 11, 2014 4:52 PM Flag

    We'll have to wait for the transcript, but the news sounded good. Two new SBIR Phase 2 awards, one for $1 million and another for $1.5 (one from Navy for ThZ monitoring of submarine hulls, the other an F-35 Air Force award). SVP and Partners for Growth agree to extend the loan term to 2 years from signing. Expected FY 2015 revenue above the previously forecast level of $31 million necessary to achieve EBITDA break-even. Reiterated the recent 700K HSOR contract in China and the ThZ volume agreement. "The headwinds of last year have become tail winds", he said. 4th quarter and FY2014 earnings to be announced on June 30.

  • Reply to

    Business Update

    by mrwrightaide Jun 6, 2014 10:26 AM
    huntw3 huntw3 Jun 6, 2014 4:58 PM Flag

    Only Kurtz is listed as being on the call. I would be surprised if they have a new sales or business development announcement. It is probably a balance sheet update, i.e. relief from the SVB and Partners for Growth debt covenants, with a promise that the EBITDA and net profit targets will be met anyway.

  • Reply to

    BUY

    by mrwrightaide Jun 2, 2014 10:17 AM
    huntw3 huntw3 Jun 2, 2014 2:57 PM Flag

    The 4th quarter and fiscal year results, which were shown unaudited in the B. Riley presentation, should be announced in the next month. That should give the stock a boost. If there is positive news on ThZ or additional HSOR contracts between now and then, that will help validate the outlook. I could see this at $.80 before the end of summer.

  • Reply to

    Rug Pull

    by mrwrightaide May 30, 2014 3:00 PM
    huntw3 huntw3 May 30, 2014 3:26 PM Flag

    I suspect the stock rise was due to information leaking about the B. Riley underwriting. Except for the fact that Kurtz will not have his feet to the fire, it is good news that API will not be subject to liquidation proceedings at the hands of its lenders. The price of the offering was set before the stock rise began, however, and API is back to its old market level. Unless there is another customer announcement in the next few weeks, we'll have to wait for the audited version of the B.Riley fiscal year numbers for the stock to begin to recover.

  • huntw3 huntw3 May 30, 2014 10:00 AM Flag

    You might try the Hot Copper message board. It looks like a major holder liquidated their position. There are no news catalysts that I am aware of.

  • Reply to

    Sinking like a Rock - wll be a 20% dip today

    by betarich1810 May 30, 2014 9:35 AM
    huntw3 huntw3 May 30, 2014 9:51 AM Flag

    Looks like they are out from under Silicon Valley Bank/Partners for Growth, at least mostly. Now the question is how the market will react to the year-end numbers in the B. Riley presentation when they are audited. API is still on a tightrope and 50% of revenues are from non-strategic products, but the EBITDA trajectory is good.

  • huntw3 huntw3 May 23, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    Amgen will wait for the COSMIC trial results before they consider buying CYTK. That is many months away.

  • huntw3 huntw3 May 23, 2014 9:30 AM Flag

    Mirror World, I agree with your interpretation. Investigator-initiated trials will be the path forward and nothing will happen before 6-9 months. I don't know where Smitty& Co. get the idea that Amgen would be interested in tirasemtiv. No major pharma will touch it at this point.

  • Reply to

    $10.00

    by scanit2008 May 21, 2014 10:23 AM
    huntw3 huntw3 May 21, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    If Amgen decides to buy CTK outright, it will be able to control the price, since only Amgen will know whether or not it has decided to proceed into Phase 3 for the heart drug. If I am Amgen, I look at the COSMIC results, make my decision but do not announce it (thus depriving CYTK of the stock bounce), and make an offer at a discounted price. Unfortunately, I do not see any binary event between now and Amgen's Phase 3 decision that would trigger a major bounce in the stock. There is enough tax loss benefit to Amgen to justify a $10 price. However, the idea that CYTK will somehow get the benefit of Amgen's Phase 3 decision before Amgen makes an buyout offer does not make sense to me. I also do not see any major pharma company, Amgen included, partnering with CYTK for tirasemtiv. It will probably take two or three more small-scale Phase 2 dosing studies to figure out how to manage the toxic effects before tirasemtiv can move into Phase 3. I could see the ALS community partnering on this. Then the question with the FDA would be, what are the endpoints in the Phase 3 trial? We are talking 12-18 months before this is figured out. with $100 million in cash, CYTK could probably fund a lot of this itself, but Blum is a spendthrift and would need additional financing to see it through.

  • Reply to

    $10.00

    by scanit2008 May 21, 2014 10:23 AM
    huntw3 huntw3 May 21, 2014 10:52 AM Flag

    Tell me why you think Amgen is a likely candidate? I'd be interested to know. Is Amgen interested in ALS?

  • Reply to

    $10.00

    by scanit2008 May 21, 2014 10:23 AM
    huntw3 huntw3 May 21, 2014 10:39 AM Flag

    The likelihood that CYTK will be able to fully analyze the Phase 2B results and come up with a Phase 3 plan in less than one month, plus negotiate a partnership for a Phase 3 trial, is remote. Amgen has not even officially committed to Phase 3 for the heart drug. Why do you think it would jump into a Phase 3 partnership for BENEFIT-ALS after the failure in Phase 2B? Amgen would be more likely to buy CYTK outright AFTER it decides to proceed into Phase 3 for the heart drug. The Phase 2B results for tirasemtiv were so bad that no company other than CYTK, perhaps with funding from the ALS community, will see potential in it. That will require a protracted discussion with the FDA about the endpoints of a Phase 3 trial once CYTK has a plan for reducing the toxicity. Blum will blow smoke at the annual meeting today.

  • huntw3 huntw3 May 2, 2014 12:55 PM Flag

    kellerence, can you provide a link to the news article or source for this? As far as I know, ASTM has not released any information on the deal other than this, the press release, and the info. in the 8-K. This sounds like it is by far the most informative of the three

CYTK
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