Nice find by Gdubya1 on twitter. Nice to have Craig McDonald on our side.
Secondly, you're failing to consider what early treatment with eteplirsen will do. I'd wager if treatment starts immediately after diagnosis, it will prolong ambulation by well more than two years.
I can be just as bearish as the next guy when it comes to SRPT (and I hate mindless pumping), but this move is not related to bad news coming. This move is indicative of two things:
1. Tax-loss selling. When someone like Soros sells a huge chunk of shares when the stock is already in a downtrend, that has a dramatic effect on the share price.
2. Current market downturn. SRPT always takes a big beating when the market struggles.
I'm always amazed when people assume the worst is coming when, in fact, the bottom is actually near. All bad news is very close to being baked in right here. Smart money is ignoring the noise. I'm buying, and I haven't accumulated in a looooong time. Even if the NDA submission is delayed again by a few months, 2015 is likely going to be a good year, assuming you believe eteplirsen works.
i will not accept anything else!!!!
The point is to get our drug approved; not worry about RNA/BMRN. What is that going to do other than create ill will? Let it go and focus on the task at hand: Submit an NDA by mid-year. That should be his absolute sole focus. The rest is noise.
Good luck, Christine! We're all hoping for the best. Hope Jett is starting to feel the effects of eteplirsen (or will soon).
With all of this in mind, I doubt we'd see any sort of royalty agreement until it becomes clear that drisa will come to market. There would be no point in settling without that happening first.
Dude, even most shorts at this point realize etep works. They're simply betting on the FDA requiring a full P3.
This is ridiculous speculation that lacks common sense. It's far more likely that BMRN already approached SRPT about a buyout or a partnership, and the company turned them down. So they went to RNA. Even though drisa is junk, BMRN will still make money on their purchase if drisa gets approved. (And BMRN has an out in the contract if drisa's NDA doesn't get filed by the FDA, so their risk is lessened.) Additionally, you can be sure that BMRN looked into the IP issue. They likely calculated potential royalties from etep into their purchase of RNA. This alone would probably net them a profit over the life of etep.
[Will be a bad sign if they decide to raise money before late 2015 FDA decision, as that will indicate that they think that will be the highest stock price they can get for a couple of years.]
Raising after the stock has gone on a substantial run is a good idea if you need the money. Secondly, raising at that time wouldn't be indicative of anything other than recognizing nothing is guaranteed with the FDA. Most small- to mid-cap biotechs do raises after a major run when they need the funding. It's erroneous to think doing so means bad news is imminent. If that were the case, ACAD would be trading under $1 right now. Just before releasing P3 results a couple of years ago, they were raising money through an ATM when the stock was trading in the $2-$3 range. According to your logic, that would mean their P3 should have failed. This is just one of many examples. You raise at least some money after a big run and before any major decision. It's the smart, prudent thing to do. ALWAYS. I'd be annoyed if the company didn't. And I'm definitely not an apologist for management.
I think this is a reasonable guess, berry. I imagine a lot of tax-loss selling actually occurred last month, and we're seeing some of those shares being repurchased this past week.
Given the major hit that the IBB has sustained because of the GILD news and the fact that SRPT has managed to remain stable, I'd say you are correct. Barring the absence of news, we've either reached capitulation or will very soon. Smart folks are accumulating here.
My hunch is that somewhere down the road SRPT will come to terms on royalty payments in the EU. They will not be able to market and sell their drug in the EU until the patent ruling is overturned, and that could take several years. During that time, they'd lose money. Makes more sense to make money and pay a royalty sooner rather than later. BMRN knows this.
Grey, assuming Bionerd is right--and I don't have the legal expertise to suggest otherwise--the problem is that there will have to be a battle in court over this. That battle is likely to last years. During that time, the current ruling will stand: SRPT cannot market and sell eteplirsen in Europe until the dispute is resolved. So does the company decide to wait years in court to hopefully win this legal fight, or do they settle for royalty payments so they can start generating a guaranteed profit immediately, albeit not as large as they'd like? I'd wager the latter. Assuming drisa is approved at or before the same time that etep is, I think we'll see a royalty agreement worked out. Most legal battles like this end in a compromise of some sort.
I'd wager most shorts even believe the drug works at this point. The anecdotal evidence is just too overwhelming at 3.5 years in. The shorts are simply betting that the FDA will require a full P3 trial, which might be the case. Either way, shares are a good deal at this price, in my opinion.
Uh, he's right. The market has been insanely choppy. Most of the market stalwarts have stalled or zig zagged (e.g., AAPL). Very few momos plays right now. Yahoo simply isn't immune to it. No more, no less.
It's amazing when folks sell near the bottom. I actually intend on buying more SRPT after it drops a little further. This is a normal pullback, given the monstrous run the market had. SRPT is being hit harder because of tax-loss selling. The amount of catalysts lining up in 2015 make SRPT worth buying soon.