The company hasn't even submitted the new data yet. The FDA will then likely take at least a few weeks to review it and discuss amongst themselves. Where do you come up with this stuff?
Unfortunately, a lot of the shorts are probably naked and will never unwind their positions. Then they'll get nothing more than a slap on the wrist for failing to do so.
No offense, but if you've been investing in biotech for the past three years, you should know that such a highly volatile stock has good odds of tanking before such a major event. I'm dumbfounded as to why you didn't seek counsel before investing in this stock.
Also, I do not intend to be mean when I say this, but you are an absolute fool if this is your largest holding. How are you going to feel if the FDA shoots down eteplirsen and the stock ends up at $5? Just not worth it man. In the very least, I suggest you hedge with puts.
For the record, I think it's a 50/50 coin toss on the FDA's decision, which is why I haven't played SRPT in quite some time. I've been biotech investing for 7 years, and that experience has taught me to stay away. There are so many better opportunities. (Most of which are not in biotech.)
I doubt winter is short. I think he just likes to consider all sides of an argument. Which in my opinion is wise. Just saying.
Yes, they would have released the PR regardless because THEY WERE LEGALLY OBLIGATED TO. It's material info. Nothing can be gleaned solely based on its release.
That's a fair question, but one could also argue why would the FDA ask for the new data if they are beholden to 10%? They know that isn't going to happen. So does the company and so do the parents. So why prolong the CRL in that case? I mean, I wouldn't put it past the FDA to simply stick to their bureaucracy, but that seems unnecessarily cruel given all of the letdowns up to this point.
I'm not convinced AA is in the cards, but I do believe odds have substantially increased.
If not, no way eteplirsen is approved.
If yes, eteplirsen odds of approval are exponentially higher. The FDA isn't going to ask to see P3 dystrophin data somehow expecting it will greatly exceed P2. That's common sense. If they were going to deny because 0.9% is too low, they'd have already CRL'ed eteplirsen.
Place your bets. I say odds now favor approval.
So the boys will be effed regardless if etep isn't approved. I'm not implying that means the FDA will suddenly approve etep, but this doesn't really help boys with DMD. How many families can afford the $100k/year at cost price tag for eteplirsen?
This is absolutely true. The FDA knows what it's doing, and you can be sure it despises SRPT investors given all the hate mail so many of sent in the past few years.
20-day moving average and 50% Fib retrace from March lows. Either one of these by itself is good support, but together much better.
So you want management to play the role of a pumper?
Also, dropping from $26-$17 in a week isn't a slow bleed.
Lastly, you should have added today. $17 is major support and will probably not be breached.
Historically, the answer to your question is no, at least if you are thinking in terms of bullish bets. However, there were some bullish options bets at the beginning of 2015 that did foretell the future. But those are the only ones I can recall in the past few years.