Agreed. But they aren't the only ones on the prowl. So are AGN and HZNP. Quite a few others are hunting as well, but not as aggressively.
This guy was bearish before as well. He's clearly a paid hack working for a fund. I highly doubt he's even a doctor. I mean, he's bullish on MNKD for goodness sake.
The likelihood of either of these things happening is virtually non-existent. Calm down, Nancy.
I hate to say it, but I more or less agree with you. But you have it backwards--Gary is actually a very good indicator. When he starts posting incessantly about near-term price movement, that's usually a good indicator that the stock is going to struggle. So we should all encourage him to stop posting so much.
Gary, you're overdoing it. Every time you overdo it, the stock drops. It's like you're a contra indicator. Silent mode, please.
Yes, even then. If you are buying calls--regardless of the price--based on material information that is not publicly available, that is insider trading.
Your theory would hold water if these "hedges" hadn't been occurring for the past three years. But the high short interested has been consistent during that time. You don't hedge for three years. A large chunk of shorts are betting on failure. As for the price upon approval, if you are talking about FDA approval of eteplirsen (and not just a positive Adcom), I think you're wrong about the amount of pop that will come, unless the share price has already climbed considerably up to that point.
If counting pre-market, SRPT's all-time high is around $67 if I recall correctly. There's no reason to believe an eteplirsen approval won't cause a pop to at least that level.
Gary, this data is NOT GOING TO BE RELEASED by the company because 24 weeks is not the final endpoint. I have no idea why you fail to understand this. We'll likely see a glimpse of this data in the Adcom briefing docs, but it will never be officially released until topline data from the end of the trial is collected, and that is end of 2016 in all likelihood.
Nothing is up. It's not uncommon for stocks to trade at a small discount to their buyout price prior to the deal closing. No way would CELG ever be turned down for money.
Good grief. You're clueless. You think today's market rout has nothing to do with China's 8% drop. Every world index is getting crushed. BECAUSE OF CHINA. It's a global economy, genius.
This week is historically also the worst week of the year for the stock market. So this shouldn't be a huge surprise, especially given the V shaped run that occurred last week.
The stock is strong because of many things. I don't think Marburg is among them. Dismissing this isn't arrogant. It's simply my opinion. We're allowed to disagree, and call me crazy, but you seem to feel just as right about your opinion as I feel about mine. So if you're going to call my opinion arrogant, objectively you need to do the same for yours. I believe the main reasons for the stock's strengths are:
1. Growing optimism about eteplirsen, which is causing more people and institutions to buy and more shorts to exit.
2. Strong technical chart. SRPT's chart has been beautiful since mid-May. This has attracted many swing traders.
3. Defined catalysts. Defined catalysts bring a lot of people into a stock, particularly when the catalysts are monumental to a stock's future price. Biotech traders love these plays, even more so when the chart looks good.
These, in my opinion, are the things that are on most investors/traders minds when they consider SRPT. Not Marburg. We can agree to disagree, but there's nothing arrogant about having a strong opinion.
The stock isn't being supported based on the Marburg publication. I'm sorry, but that's not arrogant; it's objective. The market hasn't cared about Marburg in a long time. It didn't care months back when the stock was tanking and other positive news related to Marburg was released, and it's not going to suddenly care now.
I'm not suggesting that it isn't newsworthy. It is, and it's nice to see. But Wall Street is solely focused on eteplirsen right now. If it cared about Marburg, the stock would have had a at least a 5% pop yesterday. It didn't. That's all the evidence you need.
Oh, misunderstood. Share price on the day of the filing. No clue, honestly. I think the FDA leak the other day unfortunately has probably put a damper on an otherwise nice pop because the tension of the moment is now missing. Although I do think there will be some kind of pop because it will be officially risk on at that point. How great that pop is, I don't know. I'd guess 5-10%. Hopefully more.
I think it depends on how the BMRN vote goes. My hunch is that it is going to be overwhelmingly positive, and I attribute this to the advocacy groups and political pressure. But even with a largely positive vote, if they recommend black box warnings, that will be very good for SRPT. If that's the case, we test all-time highs. If the review board sees no need for a safety label or it is very benign, I honestly have no idea what SRPT's share price will do. Given how persistent and pervasive shorts have been, it might not pop like everyone hopes. This is me simply trying to be as objective as I can.
Well, that dead period is going to bring in a boatload of catalyst traders once the Adcom becomes offical, especially in a stock as volatile as SRPT. I expect a minimum of $40 by the time Adcom rolls around. So even if news doesn't show up between NDA filing and Adcom, shorts are still screwed. But if big news does arrive, well, I will feel no sympathy for shorts.