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Office Depot, Inc. Message Board

hyulpy 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 18, 2015 8:43 PM Member since: Jan 23, 2004
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  • Reply to

    A Halt should be coming anytime

    by mcflyjmu Aug 18, 2015 5:58 PM
    hyulpy hyulpy Aug 18, 2015 8:43 PM Flag

    I have no position in this stock one way or another. However, the stock recently came to my attention, so I did a little research just out of curiosity....and I have to agree. It looks like a fraud. I read the conference call transcript, and they were evasive about their product mix. Furthermore, they announced 15 new distribution facilities.. Good luck trying to find any details of their locations like an address or phone number. They changed auditors last year. Maybe Grant Thornton found something questionable that delayed their audit report. Their website is vague. Yes, the stock looks cheap based on fundamentals, but it looks like the numbers are made up.

  • Google search the title for the full article from August 16th. Here's the excerpt:

    The USDA, which uses New York wholesale egg prices as a benchmark, last week raised its forecast for 2015 and 2016, citing the tight supplies. In the fourth quarter of this year, the USDA sees New York wholesale egg prices averaging $2.38 to $2.52 a dozen, up about a third from its July estimate of $1.79 to $1.91.

    ...so if this is true, why has CALM stock price stagnated since late July? thoughts?

  • Reply to

    Estimates are WAY too low for Q3

    by hyulpy Aug 14, 2015 7:41 AM
    hyulpy hyulpy Aug 14, 2015 10:22 AM Flag

    Can you provide a link to that webcast?

  • The latest analyst estimates are CALM will earn 2.54/share for Q1 (ending 8/29/2015). Based on the USDA egg price charts, the average price of eggs for Q4 (5/27/2015) was about $1.50/dz. The runup in egg prices started in mid-May, and this quarter, the average price looks to be about $2.20/dz. So, while sales will go up 45+% this quarter, cost of goods sold should not go up. If anything it should go down because because 13% of US flocks have been destroyed and there's lower demand for feed.

    Doing the math: based on the average selling prices, take last Q sales $403,011 x 2.20/1.45 = $611,465. Cost of goods is same as last quarter. Assuming a 35% tax rate, Q1 net income should be above $3.40/share. CALM should be swimming in cash this quarter, some of which can be used to expand operations or buy competitors, increasing EPS for years to come. The stock should not be trading for $52.52/share which was yesterday's closing price. Once the public figures this out, (maybe after the next earnings release) the stock price will go up a lot, certainly well over 60, but probably a lot higher.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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