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Apollo Global Management, LLC Message Board

iamasimpleguy6180 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 19, 2014 8:04 AM Member since: Jan 30, 2013
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  • iamasimpleguy6180 by iamasimpleguy6180 Aug 19, 2014 8:04 AM Flag

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2429155-apollo-had-a-rough-quarter

    Sentiment: Buy

  • iamasimpleguy6180 by iamasimpleguy6180 Aug 15, 2014 7:20 AM Flag

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2422965-apollo-an-undervalued-10-percent-yielder

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Compensation

    by mchlr963 Aug 14, 2014 8:45 AM
    iamasimpleguy6180 iamasimpleguy6180 Aug 14, 2014 11:09 AM Flag

    The comp is certainly something to watch. One caveat about comp this quarter is that they changed their Carry Plans (incentive comp) from cash-payout to equity with vesting for many of the senior PE guys and they restructured James Zelter's comp plan (head of Credit). In addition, they said that the comp ratio was high for the Q and that it would normalize. Your points are good though, these guys are definitely going to get theirs yet they should be given credit for building a promising business. I really believe they will be at 300bn in AUM in a few years and will get this stock up to the mid 40s. Thanks for the intelligent post.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Dividend

    by sancal777 Aug 8, 2014 12:03 PM
    iamasimpleguy6180 iamasimpleguy6180 Aug 11, 2014 6:35 AM Flag

    I feel your pain. Stay with it though because its a good investment. On their earnings call management stated that it already had .31 in distributable earnings from realizations (sales of holdings). So if you had this to the .15, the company pays our of its Management Company, the Q3 dividend is already @.46. There is almost 2 months to go in the quarter so I am projecting they will sell more investments and pick-up another .20 or so. I am also disappointed that the stock has not held-up better but these MLPs are hard to understand and I don't think the Analysts following it understand their strategy. Listen to an earnings call sometime and you will hear what I am saying. When I started buying this stock the Assets under management were about a third of where they are today. When the market wakes up to this company's business model, it should trade much higher. I project dividends of $3 per share in a steady state in about 2-3 years which implies a stock price of about $45 using a yield of say 7.5% and a 15x PE. Watch their investments into energy. They are betting that as the world restructures its infrastructure will require massive amounts of energy (and its starting) and Apollo is positioning excellent investments at great values. These guys are super bright and super motivated and don't overpay for anything. I would bet on Leon Black any day, and Josh Harris and Marc Rowan and as bright as they come. I study this company very carefully and know the numbers pretty well. I don't like some of the erratic expense (compensation) and personnel moves but these may be just minor blips. I would be buying more of this if it slips further. Good luck and keep the faith. Assuming the markets don't fall into another 2008 type crisis, I see 30 by YE14, 40 by YE15 and 50 by YE16.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Dividend

    by sancal777 Aug 8, 2014 12:03 PM
    iamasimpleguy6180 iamasimpleguy6180 Aug 8, 2014 6:02 PM Flag

    Company is growing nicely. Assets under management up and a very good pipeline of investments they will harvest over the next several quarters. The Q3 dividend is already .46 and will probably be somewhere in the .60-.70 range. Long term accumulate and hold. This company will have 300bn in AUM in two years and will be trading in the mid-40s. Its is volatile but has come well of its high of 36. Good luck.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Apo

    by dloeffler92264 May 19, 2014 11:55 AM
    iamasimpleguy6180 iamasimpleguy6180 May 20, 2014 7:51 AM Flag

    Its going through a period of consolidation. They are developing a solid track record on dividend pay-outs so I am adding at these levels. There has been some selling pressure driven I think by executives who have left the firm. Don't think its dead money. It can run right back into the 30's by year end. I view this stock as a core part of my portfolio. I have owned it since it went public and have been handsomely rewarded.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • iamasimpleguy6180 by iamasimpleguy6180 May 8, 2014 1:11 PM Flag

    Leon Black spoke for the first time and was joined by Josh Harris. They described a very robust, multi-faceted alternative management investment platform that should grow well into the future. I recommend you listen to it, especially the piece about Athene which is one of their key strategic initiatives. If I heard them right, they are only managing/sub-advising 17% of the 100bn? Athene platform. So there is significant growth to come from this entity, excluding the eventual IPO of it could pay-off handsomely. Don't forget that they also have an interesting mix of other companies (Sprouts, Hostess, to name two) to fuel future realizations. A few analysts recently commented that APO is 50% undervalued. From what I heard on this call, they may be right.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Apollo declares a distribution of $0.84 per Class A share for the first quarter of 2014
    • Total economic net income (“ENI”) after taxes of $219 million for the first quarter ended March 31, 2014, compared to $764 million for the comparable period in 2013
    • ENI after taxes per share of $0.55 for the first quarter ended March 31, 2014, compared to $1.95 per share for the comparable period in 2013
    • Total assets under management (“AUM”) of $159.3 billion as of March 31, 2014, compared to $114.3 billion as of March 31, 2013
    • U.S. GAAP net income attributable to Apollo Global Management, LLC of $72 million for the first quarter ended March 31, 2014, compared to $249 million for the same period in 2013
    • Apollo returned $4.4 billion and $23.6 billion of capital and realized profits to limited partner investors during the first quarter and last twelve months ended March 31, 2014, respectively

    Sentiment: Buy

  • iamasimpleguy6180 by iamasimpleguy6180 May 4, 2014 10:47 PM Flag

    I saw an article that disclosed that APO would pay-out incentive compensation in APO stock with a 3-year vest to eligible investment professionals who earn a share of realized incentive fees that APO generates from this new fund. This is noteworthy because if you assume a 2.5x multiple on invested capital on Fund 7, a 17.5% incentive fee and a 40% pay-out rate to the investment professionals, this move could increase distributable net income by roughly 1bn over the next 7 years. Shareholders would pick up this amount in dividends (after dilution for the shares issued to pay the incentives. In the past, they paid these amounts out in cash so distributable net income would be lower historically than what it will be on this fund prospectively. Unless this somewhat novel approach to compensation creates turnover, it is a shareholder friendly move that should increase their $.15 stated quarterly dividend.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Apollo:Blackstones Earnings Oveview

    by iamasimpleguy6180 Apr 22, 2014 8:09 AM
    iamasimpleguy6180 iamasimpleguy6180 Apr 24, 2014 3:36 PM Flag

    The markets don't understand these stocks which creates buying opportunities for investors. If you are a trader then you should worry a bit about the volatility. If you are an investor keep adding to positions at these levels. Q1 DNI will be somewhere between .66-.76. Not a bad yield on the stock. If you look at the companies they have in the pipeline and assume they sell them over the next 24-36 months, I project a regular annual dividend over this time frame of between $3-$4 per share. Not bad if you buy at $29.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • iamasimpleguy6180 by iamasimpleguy6180 Apr 22, 2014 8:09 AM Flag

    My very quick read of the BX report suggests APO remains significantly undervalued relative to BX. BX trades at about 19x LTM (last twelve months) DNI (distributable net income) while APO trades at about 8. If the market recognizes this I suspect that APO can trade up to the low 40s before consolidating back at around 36. APO earnings are coming out in a few weeks and Analysts are predicting a dividend of about 62 cents per share. The issue facing APO is restocking their pipeline of deals. Their recent deal activity indicates they favor energy, insurance and consumer. BX has 260 bn in AUM (assets under management) to APO 161bn but APO has a better investment track record in PE than BX so their realization revenue (incentive fees) is richer than BX.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    30

    by ehpb1 Apr 11, 2014 1:17 PM
    iamasimpleguy6180 iamasimpleguy6180 Apr 11, 2014 4:07 PM Flag

    Can't really look at the DOW in isolation and certainly not as a risk barometer for the ALTS. Look at BIOTECH, TECH and FINANCIALS. They have all been smoked. The stock closed very strong today so I suspect we are close to a real solid bottom. A 50% reversal of the 19 point sun-up is not all uncommon. I know it doesn't make anyone feel better who got into it late (30+) but for investors who owe this in the mid-high teens are looking at a dividend return of 14%. So I think you will see a recovery into the low 30's again and then a 6 month consolidation before it retests its highs of 36 and change. PE firms are more diversified than ever before so look at the traditional managers as something they will eventually resemble. The traditionals are trading at 1-2x the Alts.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    30

    by ehpb1 Apr 11, 2014 1:17 PM
    iamasimpleguy6180 iamasimpleguy6180 Apr 11, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    The entire market is a real mess. Remember that this stock ran up from the high teens to mid 30s over a very short period of time so it had to correct and set up for its next move higher. The dividend projections on this remain in the 2.40-2.60 range for this and next year so it presents a great yield play. I remain convinced that over the long-tem, this stock can give investors a mid-teens total return. At these levels, I would slowly add to exiting positions, especially if you entry was above 30. Good luck to all!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • iamasimpleguy6180 by iamasimpleguy6180 Mar 20, 2014 5:23 PM Flag

    Interesting move to watch. APO President has done a nice job taking the company public and guiding it toward greater growth and dividend stability. The founders are PE guys so if I had to guess I would say that they might not be too pleased with the growth in company expenses. Not sure if Spilker was an operator or investor type so hard to say. If it is along the lines of what I am speculating upon then it is bullish for the company.

    Sentiment: Buy

APO
23.78-0.20(-0.83%)Aug 22 4:00 PMEDT

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