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Apollo Global Management, LLC Message Board

iamasimpleguy6180 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 13, 2014 8:35 AM Member since: Jan 30, 2013
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  • iamasimpleguy6180 iamasimpleguy6180 Oct 13, 2014 8:35 AM Flag

    I think Q4 dividend should be in the .70-.85 range. Q3 looks like .55-.65 based on Analyst estimates. My number are slightly higher but not by much.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Worth your time reading this piece. Written from an "investors" point of view, not traders.

    http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=667816&SR=Yahoo&part=1

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Who?

    by ehpb1 Oct 10, 2014 12:49 PM
    iamasimpleguy6180 iamasimpleguy6180 Oct 10, 2014 3:43 PM Flag

    Agree with GG. Someone is pushing this down and will turn around and buy for a quick 20%. Earnings will be important this quarter and could put a floor under this at around 22. My read on this has been completely wrong as I thought it would hold at 26. I am adding at these levels because the dividend at no less than $2 per year is attractive. Someone on this board posted long ago that this was going to 18. Hat's off to them as it is closer to 18 today tan the 32 it was at when they posted. While still bullish on the sector and this name, its been very tough to watch.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • iamasimpleguy6180 by iamasimpleguy6180 Aug 19, 2014 8:04 AM Flag

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2429155-apollo-had-a-rough-quarter

    Sentiment: Buy

  • iamasimpleguy6180 by iamasimpleguy6180 Aug 15, 2014 7:20 AM Flag

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2422965-apollo-an-undervalued-10-percent-yielder

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Compensation

    by mchlr963 Aug 14, 2014 8:45 AM
    iamasimpleguy6180 iamasimpleguy6180 Aug 14, 2014 11:09 AM Flag

    The comp is certainly something to watch. One caveat about comp this quarter is that they changed their Carry Plans (incentive comp) from cash-payout to equity with vesting for many of the senior PE guys and they restructured James Zelter's comp plan (head of Credit). In addition, they said that the comp ratio was high for the Q and that it would normalize. Your points are good though, these guys are definitely going to get theirs yet they should be given credit for building a promising business. I really believe they will be at 300bn in AUM in a few years and will get this stock up to the mid 40s. Thanks for the intelligent post.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Dividend

    by sancal777 Aug 8, 2014 12:03 PM
    iamasimpleguy6180 iamasimpleguy6180 Aug 11, 2014 6:35 AM Flag

    I feel your pain. Stay with it though because its a good investment. On their earnings call management stated that it already had .31 in distributable earnings from realizations (sales of holdings). So if you had this to the .15, the company pays our of its Management Company, the Q3 dividend is already @.46. There is almost 2 months to go in the quarter so I am projecting they will sell more investments and pick-up another .20 or so. I am also disappointed that the stock has not held-up better but these MLPs are hard to understand and I don't think the Analysts following it understand their strategy. Listen to an earnings call sometime and you will hear what I am saying. When I started buying this stock the Assets under management were about a third of where they are today. When the market wakes up to this company's business model, it should trade much higher. I project dividends of $3 per share in a steady state in about 2-3 years which implies a stock price of about $45 using a yield of say 7.5% and a 15x PE. Watch their investments into energy. They are betting that as the world restructures its infrastructure will require massive amounts of energy (and its starting) and Apollo is positioning excellent investments at great values. These guys are super bright and super motivated and don't overpay for anything. I would bet on Leon Black any day, and Josh Harris and Marc Rowan and as bright as they come. I study this company very carefully and know the numbers pretty well. I don't like some of the erratic expense (compensation) and personnel moves but these may be just minor blips. I would be buying more of this if it slips further. Good luck and keep the faith. Assuming the markets don't fall into another 2008 type crisis, I see 30 by YE14, 40 by YE15 and 50 by YE16.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Dividend

    by sancal777 Aug 8, 2014 12:03 PM
    iamasimpleguy6180 iamasimpleguy6180 Aug 8, 2014 6:02 PM Flag

    Company is growing nicely. Assets under management up and a very good pipeline of investments they will harvest over the next several quarters. The Q3 dividend is already .46 and will probably be somewhere in the .60-.70 range. Long term accumulate and hold. This company will have 300bn in AUM in two years and will be trading in the mid-40s. Its is volatile but has come well of its high of 36. Good luck.

    Sentiment: Buy

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