the past 40 years have taught us that "cycles" can be far longer than anyone ever thought ..
US bonds interest ... falling for 32 years
Gold prices .. .after the run to 800 in 1980 , 23 years of falling
Oil , after almost touching 40 bucks in early 80's , fell to below 10 ... i have been expecting this to
happen again .. recent high of 140+ could very well fall into the 40's before a real turn around ...
i wouldn't hold my breath for the next up cycle .. gold is confirming the end of high oil prices ... g
there is also far too much supply to drive drillers to the deep water ... fracking old wells for
crude is adding to supply and causing a stall with deep water , also add to that , the BP debacle
and the execs see far more risk drilling in any water vs land drilling .. the situation will
eventually change , but who knows when ?
3.) Major oil companies are focusing on returning money to shareholders, cost control, and less costly exploration areas.
This is heinous , it's not just the energy sector , but nearly every major company in the US has been
stingy beyond belief with capex ... too busy buying shares and micro management of supply chains and
labor .. something has to break soon ..
Look at the retail stores and banks .. relying on outdated computer systems to prevent fraud , across the
nation , infrastructure is falling apart ... real money needs to be spent , if this economy is to survive ...
What a joke , with all of the criticism focused on the FED and threats of inflation .. a red herring if
i ever smelled one ... of course there is no inflation , just look at how little capital is being spent to
replace , refurbish and buy new plants/equipment .. prices are falling everywhere .. it's almost as
cheap to eat out as to eat home , real estate might be active , but very few locations where prices are
we are in a deflationary period .. that only changes with SPENDING !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
if business don't start spending soon , we'll have a real problem on out hands .. garce
and then there are the reports of millions of gallons of Mexican oil
being siphoned off ... are those being sold below market prices also ??
I wholly agree with your gold target , though downward momentum
could very well see it sell down to 700 ... g
not sure if anyone knows , but i just listened to an analyst who feels that the economy will
really pick up when rates start to move up .. his thinking is that for past few years and
currently , there is no need to take action(like capex) because rates will be the same in
6 months and there will be more data , however , if rates are actually rising , then
decisions will be made quicker and get the metabolism to rise ...
facts are that these guys keep touting that there's a "new normal" , then expect things
to react in a traditional manner ...
i believe ,that rates at this time , are similar to the position of oil a few years back ,
when oil prices rose , the traditional thinking was inflation , but actually it was
a signal that demand was returning and growth was not far behind ,, same for
rates , for some time , rising rates will be a reflection of a strengthening economy ..
what we don't know , is how will higher int. rates mean for div stocks .. ?? could it be
that rising int rates will spur div payers to accelerate div increase ? it does make
some sense .. in the wake of massive buybacks supposedly returning capital to
investors , quite the buy backs an increase dive to hold investors .. .
why not use options for same ... sell some covered calls
on VZ and use that to parlay into the other that you expect
to rise ? that way you can keep the VZ .. i highly doubt it's
going to come of the range for a couple of more quarters ..
absolutely no reason why they cannot grow their own grains outside of the Sahara ... they could also
grow coffee and sugar can for export and graze livestock ... nearly all nations in Africa have their
own internal problems with culture, i have to believe that with such a tribal structure that they cannot
mount cohesive efforts to solve some of their dilemmas .. i also have to wonder how commerce is
handled between nations .. do they practice free trade ?
i don't think that you have to worry ... i expect the range to last for 2 more quarters .... next year the
balance sheet should look a whole lot better and FCF should continue to increase ... not that either
bother me at the moment , but it's the insts. who move the price and right now , there are way
too many choices ... let some of them get singed a bit from the likes of Alibaba and such , then
they will value conservative issues a bit more .. garce
also , IF , some the talking heads are correct , and the bond bond market starts to go down , there
is supposed to be massive selling .. that money will have to go somewhere ... for a very long time , it
has been unusual to see bonds and stocks coupled like they have been the past years .. a lot of money
is going to have to work somewhere until the bond market corrects itself .... so much talk about a
stock market correction being overdue , what about the bond market ??? all markets correct from time
to time ... g
already picked ... all i can do now , is wait for the earnings date to be released ..
would be nice to get in Oct ...
from every angle , it makes sense for us to limit negative contributions to
the environment ... a good starting point would be to mandate a national
fresh water grid , both for irrigation and human consumption ... it might
also be a good idea for municipalities to invest infrastructure , such that
those demands that do not require potable water to have a source to
fight fires with ... NYC over the years , has had it's share of water problems ,
yet the water to fight fires comes from the same pristine reservoirs that
supply homes and businesses , instead of just taking it from the Hudson
River .... g ...
better, more complete recycling won't hurt anyone either .. massive amounts
of food are thrown out every day by the restaurant industry ... all of that
should be hauled to a facility to create methane(captured for use , some of
that already exists , but we need more ) and also to compost for farmers ...
solutions are there , but the impetus is not ... g
these cycles are part of reality .. to simplify the cure for low prices is lower prices and
for high prices , higher prices ... especially in commodities ...
in the past 10 years , just reflect on the massive amount of new drilling around the world ..
1/2 of Africa .. Russia , Mideast , US , now south America beginning to join the fray ... we will
now be in a cycle where prices continue to drop ... drill rigs decline , mines get mothballed ,
until shrinking supplies get less than demand and the cycle goes 'round again .. yup , even
gold goes through these cycles .... NES(formerly HEK) was founded and flourished during
a boom period that was not bound to last ... tough sledding ahead ... g
after the peak of 800/oz gold embarked on a downward spiral to 250 ... i would expect about the
same ratio on this go 'round . .thanks , but i'll wait for bargains in the 800 range .. g
methane gas is worse than C02 .. and every day , there are thousands of tons of it release to
the atmosphere .. in Siberia , the permafrost in the tundra is disappearing and massive amounts
of methane is escaping .... take ride to the reservoirs in the Catskills and watch all the bubbles
coming to the surface .. methane .... maybe if we allow more shale fracking , we could get
this stuff out of the ground and burn it before it shrouds the earth ..
one more point ... volcanoes spew untold million of tons of reflective ash into the atmosphere ,
which reflects sunlight .. of course this would have a cooling effect , but it's still pollution , far beyond what humans can add ...
of course , it is absolutely essential that we pay attention to our own use of the Earth , but
we cannot compete with Mother Nature .... instead of chasing after minor things , the focus
needs to change ... g
a couple of pipe/transport/gathers ... getting slammed .. MWE and APL .. there are others and with
oil/gas prices tanking , this is going to be a tough sector for a while .. not sure if NES will survive ...
take it all in , then figure out what you are seeing ... g
that's probably why somebody "planted" a man infected with Ebola in the US ... politics always
attempt to create a situation that the players can resolve , while ignoring the important things ...
sorry , meant to say etf's ... if money leaves them it will affect all the stocks in them ,
the money should come back into those companies that will prevail ... so we should
see some serious dips followed by sharp rises on some issues ....
i'm going to guess that large investors(insts) are starting to back out of mlp's and index funds to pick
individual companies ....
it's that word , PROJECTED ... investors do not like unknowns ... and it's not like there is no competition that
could crimp the projection ..
here's a kicker ... Ford keeps look ahead to 2020 .... fair enough , but the upcoming generations are
not salivating for new cars/trucks ...(same for home ownership) .. these kids want to travel light , they
don't want same headaches their parents put up with ... the whole industry is looking at a paradigm
shift , the likes of which have never been seen ...
why own a car when you can call Uber ? ....
Ford looks like a great story , but the insts. that dictate terms , are not al that exuberant ... g
thanks Don , looks like the world is waking up to what Mr.Sculley has known for a long time (maybe Gary
Jones had the right idea ? ) ...garce