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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Message Board

ibdman15 177 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 59 minutes ago Member since: Mar 10, 1999
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  • ibdman15 ibdman15 2 hours 59 minutes ago Flag

    just BTFD! it's not like catching a falling hot sharp knife! or is it? Remember what the AMZN's PE is on trailing and forward earnings.......It can fall from high 400's to 40's and still be wicked expensive. It's just a retailer. and the S & P 500 PE can easily contract into the single digits or below.....

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Under the Hood

    by ibdman15 18 hours ago
    ibdman15 ibdman15 17 hours ago Flag

    R2k/IW and Financials/XLF down 14% YTD while Biotechs IBB down almost 27%! Thanks Hillary on the Biotechs

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • While the S & P 500 is down just 9% YTD, the IBD MF index and NDQ are both down 15%! The MF index is 21% off it's all time summer high. be cautious, Stage 4 declines are profound. AMZN PE still near 400....LOL it's contraction alone can wreck the SPX index.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ......again to just get to where the IWM/R2k already is, the June 2013 levels. So another quick 13% haircut is a given. Plus Carter Worth, the famous technician says 1575 and even 1450 in the not-to-distant future. sell sell sell.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • They are a contrarian Indicator.

    Monday was another ugly session for the stock market, but buyers came in during the last hour of trading, helping the Nasdaq recoup nearly half of a 3% intraday loss. (BUT ISN'T THAT BULLISH IBD? LIKE CNBC ALWAYS POINTS OUT "WELL-OFF THE LOWS"!)

    Make no mistake, though. It was another day of unequivocal distribution — enough to put IBD’ market outlook back into a correction. The Nasdaq undercut its Aug. 24 low, another bearish sign. After an ugly gap down at the open, the Nasdaq ended near its session high but still lost 1.8%. The S&P 500 finished in the top half of its intraday range but fell 1.4%. The Dow gave up 1.1%. Volume rose from Friday’s above-average levels.

    The put/call volume ratio of 1.05 Friday and 1.16 Monday points toward a market where fear is on the rise. As the number rises, it means that more bearish put options are being bought than call options. Excessive fear has been seen at many market bottoms in the past.

    The Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 fell mostly in line with the main indexes, but massive selling continued in several Nasdaq 100 names, including Adobe Systems (ADBE), Cognizant (CTSH) and Tesla (TSLA). Earnings from Tesla are due Wednesday after the close.

    Money continued to flow into bonds as the 10-year Treasury yield caved in 9 basis points to 1.75%. The yield is at its lowest level since January 2015. The precipitous drop in the 10-year yield is the market’s way of saying it has concerns about the health of the U.S. economy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • IBD's current narrative on today...

    "Stocks picked up where they left off Friday with another ugly session Monday.

    The Nasdaq gapped down and took out its Jan. 20 intraday low, officially killing its rally attempt. It lost 2.5%, slightly paring a 3% intraday decline. The S&P 500 fell 2%, hurt by weakness in financial, consumer discretionary and technology stocks. The Dow Jones industrials also dropped 2%.

    The Nasdaq 100 gave up 2.6%, hurt by weakness in Tesla (TSLA) again. Shares lost 9% after crashing 15% last week amid persistent negative analyst chatter.

    Volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq was tracking 15% to 20% higher than Friday’s levels in the stock market today. On the NYSE, declining stocks outnumbered advancers by 5-to-1. On the Nasdaq, losers topped winners by 3-to-1.

    The 10-year Treasury yield slumped 8 basis points to 1.76% as worries about a recession in the U.S. remained on the front burner.

    Gold had another big day, up $35.60, or 3.1%, to $1,193.30 an ounce. That’s the highest level since the summer.

    The put/call ratio was recently at 1.13, indicating some fear in the market. Excessive fear has been seen at many market bottoms in the past."

    Did they just state above that the "rally attempt" is officially dead? They had the market in a confirmed uptrend until Friday when they switched over to Uptrend under pressure after the close Friday. The rally attempt is up thru the "follow thru day (FTD)" which they claim occurred in late January. They need to hire folks that know how Bill O'Neil's system actually works.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    FEAR not here yet just look at the VIX

    by ibdman15 Feb 8, 2016 11:20 AM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Feb 8, 2016 11:47 AM Flag

    equity p/c was only 1.05 at Friday's close. peaked above 1.2 Dec and Jan and several times above 1.2 in August and September. again, this is a calculated orderly selloff that is just getting underway by those BIG ole' institutional Investors.

    and Greek stocks at 1990 levels!!!! down another 8% today. That will be the USA if Bernie or Hillary are elected.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Buckle up folks!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • That's what the narrative was in Fall 2008, the Money markets would fail forcing the retail investor to sell those and buy stocks as the institutions were selling stocks MF's and equity ETF's to them. Don't buy in on that narrative. go to cash or short.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    FEAR not here yet just look at the VIX

    by ibdman15 Feb 8, 2016 11:20 AM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Feb 8, 2016 11:32 AM Flag

    $53.29 on August 20
    They will tell you it doesn't mean anything and the VIX is no longer relevant. Recall it hit $90 during the 2008-2009 drubbing. The Bulls always want to find a glimmer of hope. Its over. DB going out of business like Lehman Bros., Chesapeake Energy, Who's next AMZN, RBS, USB?? or even the GS? remember where there is one cockroach, there are many in the walls and under the floors. Bad news is just beginning....

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • its nowhere near the $52 level of the August sell-off. Just under $27 today. Seems like an orderly and calculated Bear Market that is just getting underway.
    then there is IBD looking in the rear-view mirror once again on their market calls. Their subscribers are getting wrecked. They were only at Uptrend under Pressure after Friday's drubbing. Then they discuss IWM incorrectly, The R2K close Friday was actually well below the close on January 20. It's well below even the Jan 20 intraday low.

    "Stocks staggered lower at Monday’s open, with the Nasdaq breaking below key technical levels of support.

    The Nasdaq dropped 2.2%, cutting below prior lows from both January and August to leave it at its lowest level since October 2014. The S&P 500 fell 2% and the Dow slipped 1.9%, though both were holding above their lows from January. The small cap Russell 2000 faltered 2%, testing — but not breaking below — its Jan. 20 low.

    Volume rose in the stock market today, jumping 38% on the Nasdaq and up 27% on the NYSE relative to action at the same time Friday.

    The dollar remained mixed, up slightly on the euro and down vs. the yen. Bonds slid lower. Oil trimmed its early losses, putting West Texas Intermediate down less than 2% at $30.28 a barrel.

    CNBC will need to have a big layoff since their ad revenue will plunge with this Bear Market.

    JPMorgan (JPM), Microsoft (MSFT) and Home Depot (HD) slipped 3% to the bottom of the Dow

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Standard and Poors 500 Revised targets

    by ibdman15 Feb 8, 2016 8:11 AM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Feb 8, 2016 8:31 AM Flag

    could happen. Especially if there is a chance that Bernie Sanderswitz could win in November.
    Fact is The Goldman Sachs says likely no Recession, but what is happening is most folks fully invested in the stock market and living off their nest egg will hunker down big time if they haven't gone to cash yet helping to wreck GDP. The stock market LEADS the economy, not the other way around no matter what the liberals hope or want. Read the Bloomberg article on what the Guggenheim Partners folks say....1650 in Q1 and NDQ has another 13% to crater this year to 3,800. could be sooner than expected. They also say no Recession just a 1987 variety crash. remember, the market always declines during an election year after a 2-term president. The MSM hasn't told us that.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Just downgraded year end targets by 7 out of 21 analysts. First time this early in a year downgrade with a 325 point range since 2003. However, 2003 turned out to be a great year with start of Iraq war. But that was after a long 3 year Bear market. Look folks, the R2K is back at June 2013 levels now. When the S & P 500 hits its June 2013 levels it will be 1600, the November 2012 levels 1,400 and the Sept 2011 level 1,100. so that is a fall from Friday's close of 12.5%, 26.3% and 42.2%! Better batten down the hatches! Market in Correction raise Cash.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • although "For the week, the IBD 50 plunged 6.5%; the Nasdaq, 5.4%; and the S&P 500, 3.1%." and the NDQ closed at Oct 2014 levels and the Russell 2000 closed at June 2013 lows. IBD forget that the Dow and S & P 500 aren't the entire stock market. should be all cash with short exposure by now.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • PE still 401!!
    300 takeoff, to 693 to 500. will drop back below 300 soon then down to 100. It's garbage, complete junk. AMZN worse than most any Internet highflyer in 99-00 period

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • But, The Russell 2000 at Lowest Level since June 2013 simply more important for the folks to know. Better keep the IWM action on your radar along with the manipulated Q's.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 ibdman15 Feb 5, 2016 4:32 PM Flag

    Correct June 28, 2013 levels on the IWM/R2k. took out the January 20 closing low by a bunch

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Turn off CNBC - Losers - Targets on SPY and IWM

    by ibdman15 Feb 5, 2016 2:38 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Feb 5, 2016 3:52 PM Flag

    Lowest closing low on R2K since June 28 2013!! and volume is accelerating into the close. sell now next week could be an unmitigated disaster. FANG has died, sorry all you liberals that want Obama to go out on all time stock market highs!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • IWM at levels not seen since July 2013's liftoff. looking at the volume at price it could quickly crater to $81 area
    SPY took out august, October and January lows today and its Volume at price analysis points to $165 just to remind the computers and the Harvard nerds that program them
    SPXU, TZA, QID, SDS all could be good buys for this pending crash.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Had to do speech today touting 4.9% UE rate? what is the labor participation rate Barry? Folks dropping out of available labor force artificially lower the headline rate. You and your advisors know nothing! low paying service sector jobs only. and the January jobs report was a huge miss coupled with a 30 k downward revision for December. Things might be just ducky in DC but no where else. Remember the stock market is a leading indicator. negative years in stock market since 1950 during an election year after a 2 term president! Market in correction raise cash.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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