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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Message Board

ibdman15 50 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 30, 2015 8:28 AM Member since: Mar 10, 1999
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  • Reply to

    sales and earnings Q2?

    by ibdman15 Jul 30, 2015 8:11 AM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Jul 30, 2015 8:28 AM Flag

    and the analysts didn't know the dollar was strong in Q2 when they formulated and continually revised their sales and earnings estimates same on GDP when it misses the expectations either way. well it snowed in the Midwest or it was hot in phoenix!

  • really, SPX sales down 4% and earnings up just 0.8% for Q2? That should make the stock market rise cause it's better than EXPECTED!! gotta luv THE ANALYSIS. there must be an explanation, the dollar was stronger than EXPECTED so sales would really be up if the dollar were in decline. LOL

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Just a few observations:
    Governor Christie mentioned in a Town Hall meeting the other day that Obama will go down as the worst president of all time and Obama thinks he is always smarter than anyone else no matter how much experience or how smart the other leader or experts is.
    I was later drinking with a "moon bat left" wing liberal friend and we were discussing that comment and he said, "if Obama and the liberal leadership was so bad, then why has the US stock market more than tripled in 6 years under their amazing leadership and still near all time highs?. He went on, obviously anyone with money in the market or any business must love Obama and his policies! Trump and the rest of them are bad for business."
    In my opinion, the only possibility for any Republican to win is if the stock market and economy to crash and burn well before the election (like now, a 2- year BEAR market). Instead of spending billions on campaign ads the GOP should pool all that cash together and figure out how to make the US stock market decline 40-60%. Or the folks that must have a Republican in the oval office need to 100% exit the stock market.
    Tech stocks actually bottomed in Oct 2008 before the election, and the rest of the market bottomed in early March 2009 after Obama was in. I think the IWM was around 35 in March 2009 (when Obama stated don't pay attention to the daily gyrations of the stock market, it means nothing) and recently peaked at 129 so small caps up 3.7 fold under Obama's leadership so he's awesome for small business! The Moonbats entire campaign could be run on the record expansion of the EBT and Welfare program and record stock market.
    Then they would get all the votes because the middle class that lives pay check to pay check is getting squeezed. The low end is doing ok, high end is doing great! middle class poor to just ok
    and think of the performance of the "liberal friendly" companies like Apple, Netflix, Facebook Google, Costco and Starbucks

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • the rate of decent of the 50 is crazy steep. the 200 rolling over. death cross by 8-6. NYSE S-T target 9950 or Oct lows, that is 8% off today's dead cat bounce close. IWM target is $111 for its H & S pattern in daily timeframe. Note laggards fueled most of today' bounce. another lower high on the comp's a/d line today. breath is pathetic. FANG is over! US markets to be down on the year by 20% by Dec 31. better sell. and most definitely get off margin!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 ibdman15 Jul 27, 2015 12:24 PM Flag

    most major crashes begin on anemic volume for a few days. Look at charts form Sept/Oct 1987, Oct 2007 June 2008, Sept 2008 and of course March- April 2000 & Sept- Oct 2000

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • first off don't listen to Thomas Lee. he needs the market to advance. Same as everyone else CNBC parades on TV.
    Let's look back at Sept 2008
    Everyone thought and said the VIX at 35 was a generational bottom for the stock market yet the market declined another 40% after that level was hit and the VIX ultimately ran over 90!!!
    IBD will state that the p/c is over 1.0 for a few days indicating a S-T bottom. They will be wrong. market is now in multi-month correction, downtrend, etc. the sideways distribution phase is over. It is full blown downtrend.

    remember GS's Abby Joseph Cohen in Sept 2008? what was her SPX year end 2008 target?

    I believe oil was starting it's long decent from $150/bb to $30 then too.

    and the FED will be unable to do anything about it! GET OUT of US Stocks Stock ETF's and Mutual funds!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • NYSE Comp, Semiconductors, biotechs and small caps to lead the way into this Bear market. Look at those charts on NYSE Comp, IBB, SMH and IWM. better sell if fully invested in equities. Could crash next week. look at current NYSE Comp chart versus Dow and SPX chart in sept/oct 1987.

    NDQ and Q chart looked like blow off top two weeks back. 6 consecutive gap ups. not unlike March 2000. everything below declining 5 dma and death cross about to occur on NYSE Comp. look at IWM action in Sept 2008 and how fast that cratered.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    NYSE Comp resistence and NDQ top

    by ibdman15 Jul 17, 2015 1:02 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Jul 22, 2015 10:30 AM Flag

    NYSE Comp about to breach the 200 dma and death cross late next week.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • The FED decided to have an outright buy of AAPL. they can't afford to have aapl tank and bring down the NDQ and SPX. too big an influence on those indexes. Not much influence on Dow since a lower priced Dow stock on a price weighted average.

    It's unreal how the FED can buy stock and stock futures but they do. Janet Yellen is like a deer in headlights.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    No Idea how bad it is ,,,,no idea

    by ibdman15 Jul 21, 2015 10:06 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Jul 21, 2015 10:14 PM Flag

    how about the Q's and SPY plunge tomorrow down 2% and 1.5% each? folks underestimate how much influence AAPL has on those two indexes. plus all the public businesses that feed off the aapl machine. will be similar to China crash. just today CNBC was discussing how record call options on aapl going into the report and low ratio of puts. markets hurt the majority of participants. hedge and MF's to lose billions on that incorrect assumption. then no one upgrades to the I-Phone 6 even though Cook hopes they do. I know hundreds of folks that are switching from I-Phones to android phones.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • people are losing their jobs! and the NYSE a/d line has been declining for a year while a death cross looks imminent on the NYSE composite. broader gauge than the SPX.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    NYSE Comp resistence and NDQ top

    by ibdman15 Jul 17, 2015 1:02 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Jul 17, 2015 4:45 PM Flag

    gap and trap on NDQ and Q's. NYSE Target of its H & S is 10,000 and IWM target around $113. get short. Parabolic looking top on the Tech stocks. declining a/d lines all over too

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • NDQ last week of trading looks lie Sept 2008 on the R2K. Notice how the NYSE Comp has hit resistance at its declining 50 dma. Death cross still possible in July. likely early August. Google is masking underlying broad market weakness and distribution today. Could be a huge plunge lurking.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • biggest down week of 2014 or 2015 ahead. market in correction leaders breaking down, lower highs all over, mired below 50 dma's headed below 200 with impending death crosses. watch out below. could be largest summer swoon ever. the Hamptons will not be a happy place as Pa will need to head back to Manhattan.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Greek getting a temporary hall pass, we must turn our attention to the strong possibility of an ISIS attack on the FED Reserve Banks, NYSE, DC and larger US companies that's action drives the US stock market like Apple, GE, GS and JPM. Institutional Investors could be selling into today's premarket strength while retail thinks the coast is clear. Charts are horrendous. look for a lower high to set up this morning.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Market in Correction Raise Cash

    by ibdman15 Jul 7, 2015 10:33 AM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Jul 8, 2015 5:19 PM Flag

    Oh Darn, Market in correction although today wasn't officially a DD since NYSE pretty much closed. NYSE at lowest level since 2-2 and down 1.6% YTD.. However, the leaders and the indexes all got wrecked. SPX first close below its 200 dma since October. The top is likely in and a death cross on the NYSE Comp could occur by lte July. overlay Sept/Oct 1987 charts with current charts. huge 25% plus weekly correction looking very likely. Lots of folks in US on margin too. it's not just China retail investors.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Upside reversal Buy Buy Buy

    by ibdman15 Jul 7, 2015 3:23 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Jul 7, 2015 3:28 PM Flag

    for the Bears out there- it's better to open strong and close weak than open weak and close strong like today. Bullish upsaide reversal. Dow to close up 200 min today as short covering and panic buying sets in.

    wait until the HUGE earnings misses and outlook downgrades. Heck 95% of kids graduating from college if they can get a job are waiting tables or bartending. The Obama economy is awesome with the labor force participation rate at 40 year lows. Austin Goodsbee has it all figured out, just Fix Chicago you liberal idiots.

  • correction is over. market FTD. SPX clear sailing to 2,500 now. ECB and IMF must be bailing out Greece. The international PPT. Thank you God! go all in on margin. ISIS is destroyed too.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Market in Correction Raise Cash

    by ibdman15 Jul 7, 2015 10:33 AM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Jul 7, 2015 10:36 AM Flag

    and look at oil's plunge! Biggest two day drop in how long? world economy heading into the abyss. no one is spending except those tied to the Federal Government machine. Wait for the worse than expected sales and earnings reports and lowered outlooks just around the corner.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Had a distribution day across the indexes yesterday, leaders breaking down too, dropped one day because of time and we are well on the way to another DD today on higher volume. NYSE below 200 SPX likely to breach 200 dma today. small and mid caps in free fall along with transports. Bear market has begun. don't wait until the SPX is down 20% to sell everything. Get out of US Stocks now. remember, they will not allow the biggest 8 year stock market run ever under a democratic President that is far from business friendly. If they do, that would mean OBAMA is a business friendly dude and he is not. I suspect we see a broad 50% market haircut between now and the next bottom sometime in late 2016. That puts SPY near $100 or lower. do not hold it for the small dividend. raise cash. can always buy back in later. sell your mutual funds and hedge funds too. don't worry about the trading costs or frequent trader fees. 50% drop is 50% capital evaporation. Cash is a position.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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