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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Message Board

ibdman15 107 posts  |  Last Activity: May 18, 2015 4:49 PM Member since: Mar 10, 1999
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  • ibdman15 ibdman15 May 18, 2015 4:49 PM Flag

    no everything is awesome. Think of all those $15/hour jobs out there that are unfilled for teenagers and 20 somethings that have 6 year college degrees and still can't get a job at even $10/hour. So the teenagers are upgrading to A/F and Banana Republic (at Urban Outfitters expense) and the weather was too nice to shop and amazon is gaining all kinds of M.S. while losing money every quarter and every year! LOL

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Red Flag per IBD
    Market is about to enter a long Bear phase
    Bears every 3 years on average and this Bull is over 6 years old
    Tobin Q highest since 2000 and 1929
    US market 80% overvalued
    BOA say twilight zone and a cleansing drop in US equity prices is likely
    Record highs again while equity fund outflows in 2015 are $100 B so far.
    Carl Ichan says AAPL to $240....so he can sell all his shares on the way up and yes it has a huge impact on the indexes
    If macro improves, FED increases rates
    if macro stays steady or deteriorates further, EPS/ Sales and GDP continue their steep decent and equities eventually follow. If SPX Sales and earnings drop 10% in next year while the multiple contracts from 19 to 10, the market corrects at least 50% to SPX 1050.
    If AAPL wasn't in the SPX, where would the level be?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Is the U.S. economy flashing a warning sign? Industrial production sank in April, defying low expectations of a flat reading. It was the fifth monthly contraction in a row.

    The last two times that the U.S. saw at least three straight months of declining output — in late 2000 and early 2008 — the economy was in recession or about to be.

    Q1 GDP, first reported as a 0.2% annualized gain, likely will be revised to show a contraction.

    Energy Sector Sputters

    Industrial production fell due to its other main components. Utility output fell 1.3% after diving 5.4% in March. Mining slid 0.8%, the sixth monthly drop in seven, due to energy sector woes.

    The plunge in oil prices that began in June has jolted the economy as energy companies have slashed capital spending and activity. They also cut 15,000 mining jobs in April, Labor Dept. data show.

    Many economists, including Fed policymakers, had assumed that oil's boosting consumers' purchasing power would more than offset its negative impact.

    But consumers don't buy it. Retail sales continue to disappoint, while the University of Michigan

    Q1 is expected to be revised to -1.2% and Q2 to -2.5%!!!!! That is Recession folks.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 by ibdman15 May 14, 2015 11:21 PM Flag

    per IBD with today's FTD on the Naddy. But be careful. IWM still below 50 DMA and greatly volume declined today versus the past several days. The market will crash soon. there is an event lurking that is unexpected. it will roil world markets and 20-30% haircut will occur in a week or two.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 by ibdman15 May 14, 2015 7:58 AM Flag

    and by the way, in addition to the Russell 2000 being below its 50 DMA for the past 11 sessions so have the IBD 50, IBD 85/85 and IBD New America Indexes. This is a major warning sign that the major indexes are about to CRASH. You have been warned. Take equity exposure off the table before the next flash crash that keeps crashing. Bull is over six years old and we are headed for a second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth. And the Transports also are looking extremely shaky.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Market in Correction raise cash

    by ibdman15 May 11, 2015 10:03 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 May 13, 2015 10:01 PM Flag

    And again today, market opened strong and we closed well-off the highs to a flattish finish indicative of a BEAR market. The small caps have been mired below the 50 DMA for 11 sessions. Not good. and now HSBC says the world equity markets are royally wrecked because we are entering a Global Recession, lead by Texas and the USA and the FED is 100% out of ammunition because they can't cut rates by 5%. so in effect.......uncharted waters.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Market in Correction raise cash

    by ibdman15 May 11, 2015 10:03 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 May 12, 2015 5:22 PM Flag

    another distribution day on higher volume than the day before indicating more institutional selling of the US stock market today. Yes we closed well-off the lows folks. but the fact remains the US stock market is in correction and it could stay in a correction/downtrend for many months. just because it has quickly had FTD's in the past seven years on every slight pull back doesn't mean it will happen this time. GDP will be revised down, Q2 to also be negative, FED is in panic mode since Labor participation rate at 1977 Jimmy carter levels and no wage inflation. Heck look at Gap sales and zero in on same store sales. are they losing market share to WalMart. Kohls or Abercrombie n Fitch? Or is the consumer hunkering down for the cliff the US is falling off? And remember the GOP will not let the Obama administration be rated as "the best president" ever for the stock market. Cause even if we go sideways for the next two years it will be the best 8 year stock market run EVER in US History....ands under a loser's leadership. How about that you rich people? so do yourself a favor and dump stocks. it rest with you rich conservatives that watch the stock market advance each and every year.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Market in Correction raise cash

    by ibdman15 May 11, 2015 10:03 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 May 11, 2015 10:06 PM Flag

    note the IBD indexes such as the new America, IBD 50 and IBD 85/85 indexes are currently 5-7% off their 52 week highs. and the R2K is mired below its 50 dma. appears to be acting as a ceiling as it turns downward toward the 200 dma with a death cross by June 1.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Could be the start of an 18 month Bear market cutting 40-60% off the major indexes and more off the high flyers.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 by ibdman15 Apr 30, 2015 7:20 PM Flag

    Russell 2000 breached its 50 yesterday and plunged well below the 50 on a 149% increase in volume today. The Dow Transports (IYT) have been mired below its 50 since mid March while the NDQ closed decisively below it's 50 dma today on heavy volume as well. It appears that the IWM/R2K could sometime in 2015 test the $60 level from 2012 and that would be a 50% haircut from the current level. You have been warned. It will happen quite fast when the professionals panic and the derivative trade breaks down. A large US Bank will likely go under. Uptrend back under pressure after today's downside reversal and IBD will likely shift to correction when another distribution day occurs even if it has justhalf the intensity of today's action. SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • in Europe is like the 1963 stock market investigation by the Kennedy administration. and AAPL is the world stock market. Therefore, when AAPL is cut in half the Q's and SPY will be cut in half.

    Plus we are at nosebleed levels like 2000 when looking at the shiller PE's. and no Bull market EVER in US history has latest more than 7 years. NEVER distribution count is very high too.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Better buckle up. will be a wild ride but it will not stop there. crash will follow once October 2014 lows are taken out. BTW if the FED funds rate increases even 1.5%, the USA will not be able to service its $18 T in debt. Thanks Obama and Congress. all are Losers!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 by ibdman15 Apr 14, 2015 11:55 PM Flag

    Uptrend Continues Under Pressure. NDQ suffered a DD today elevating its count to 7. IBD 50 lost 0.4%

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • a significant Distribution Day is setting up. In fact, they may need to shut the markets down early. Time to be afraid, really afraid. Bear markets open strong and close weak. 8 DD's. downside reversal on volume today pushes it to 9 DD's with significant index closes below the 50 dma's. GET OUT NOW BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE. some weird stuff to happen this afternoon that could crank the US markets into a tailspin after Europe closes for the day. it's a not a matter of if the market CRATERS 50% it's a matter of when. don't be caught in the downdraft. It will be too late. Funny how the FED officials when answering reporter questions are watching the ticker and the market impact on each and every word they mutter. They are so scared of the stock market's imminent collapse.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • per IBD tonight:

    The stock market reversed lower Tuesday as it continued its enigmatic behavior.

    The Nasdaq and S&P 500 opened higher, rising as much as 0.6%. But they started rolling over around midday and continued falling into the close.

    The Nasdaq dropped 0.1%; the S&P 500 lost 0.2%. The small-cap Russell 2000 slipped 0.6%. Small caps have outperformed big caps so far this year, but this week they've lagged.

    DD count 8 and 8! 6 year Bull market is OVER. Better cash out before we lose 25% in a two week period.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Bull market in us stocks is over no matter what the fed does! Or what cnbc, hildenwrath the Goldman Sachs and bloomberg tell them to do. Today is simply a minor shirt squeeze since it's so apparent that earnings sales are crashing.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 ibdman15 Apr 3, 2015 1:00 PM Flag

    Major stock Market wreck coming on Easter Monday. Bear Market is in force with lower highs and lower lows printed each day, extremely elevated distribution days at 9 as of Thursday, Monday market collapse on high volume will usher market into official correction to the IBD readers, and the major players are currently all in and need to get all out. Be prepared. Easter Dinner may be a tad unnerving for folks when the futures re-open at 6PM ET Sunday. FED may need to have an emergency meeting or at least a conference call Sunday night with the Treasury, Lloyd and Jamie. Good Luck Longs.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • sell now. get out! C- C C- 9 and 9 DD's on major indexes yet IBD still has market uptrend under pressure" rather than "Market in Correction" citing that the R2K and S&P 600 are doing just fine. They have it wrong as US stock market is going to collapse very soon. The underlying strength of the broad market as measured by the NYSE Comp is horrendous. The NYSE, SPX....and XLF will lead the crash. when the dust settles, those broad mega cap indexes will be down 40% but small and Mid Caps will be down 60%. Don't chase the false narrative by the Main Stream financial media. There is no way the stock market will have a record eight year advance on Obama's leadership or he will go down as the single best President of all time. They will not allow that to happen.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 ibdman15 Apr 1, 2015 6:18 PM Flag

    same pattern before the 87 crash,2000 tech wreck and 2007 financial crisis. Bull over six years old. Q1 GDP negative -3.2%!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • 9 and 9. market in serious correction. feeling like sept/oct 1987. Market will crash

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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