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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Message Board

ibdman15 133 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 19, 2014 10:14 PM Member since: Mar 10, 1999
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  • ibdman15 ibdman15 Oct 19, 2014 10:14 PM Flag

    and SPY ultimately below $110 by end of 2015. MARGIN CALLS GALORE!!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • R2K down 7% YTD, IBD MF index down 4.55% YTD. all a/d's on E. Yes R2K up this week but note the declining volume on the NYSE and Naddy Exchanges and Options X day too. beware of rallies on declining volume that close well off the intraday highs or even close lower. Bottom won't occur for about a year after the longs that hold on or even average down are exhausted. Bear Markets last 9-12 months on average and we are in the early innings no matter what CNBC tells us.

    I heard the reason the Russell 2000 may have advanced so strongly this past week was because Institutions needed more float so they can short the living daylights out of the Small and Mid caps. and need more ETF shares to borrow for the ride down below IWM $80.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Is IBDMAN15 still alive

    by sizman Oct 16, 2014 9:50 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Oct 16, 2014 11:18 PM Flag

    alive, well and killing it. Get to cash or short on any rip. It will simply be a dead cat bounce. outlooks being downgraded all over. Major depression ahead. just look at oil tank. everyone is cutting spending, sales and earning taking a hit this and next quarters.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Then a 10-15% crash on Monday and Tuesday. This FED officials should be tried for collusion/treason on trying to manipulate the stock market with their cute little comments. The stock market is going to crash no matter what these turkeys say or do. Market in correction raise cash. There is no floor. Get out now! tomorrow the market opens strong and closes weak as Bear markets usually do. The last two days were not bottoming tails. The VIX will sour to 65-80 real soon and the P/c could surpass 2.0. Nothing is normal anymore. The options traders could actually be correct this time. Major rough patch ahead, probably worse than the 2008 financial crisis. Ask Abigail Dolittle and Carter Worth. Even the other Abigail/owner of Fidelity Investments knows what is imminent. She's already cashing out.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • VIX will head to 50 then 90 S & P to be down 30-60% so ya'll better get out before its too late and your $1 M 401 k becomes a 201 k worth just $500 k. Margin calls galore! They have no idea how bad it is no idea....people are losing their jobs, They're nuts They're nuts! They know nothing!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 ibdman15 Oct 14, 2014 8:28 AM Flag

    right....Bears open strong and crash before the close.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • forced selling - 1/3 retracement of yesterdays move premarket
    IWM will plunge to $84 for possible support. and SPY to $150 near term. Look at the Volume at price weekly charts. the put/call was 1.41 yesterday but what if the option traders are actually correct this time and a 25% crash occurs in the next week? You mutual and hedge fund managers take note, you gotta sell or you will lose your job. Remember many of you have never even seen a Bear market and your expensive MBA from Northwestern or Harvard mean nothing. its all about supply-demand. Bull markets last an average of five years and its over. Ebola will wreck the US and world economy. Folks will not gout and spend.

    and the margin calls are already ramping up right now!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Vix needs to hit 60 for a bottom. Ignore p/c at 1.41 today as that's too obvious. IWM to 84 before thanksgiving.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Sell off was on well above average volume today even on a bank holiday! Yes p/c was 1.41 indicating a s-t bottom for those that follow IBD. However VIX was mid 30's in sept 2008 only to hit 90 before the bear ended in March 2008. Record margin calls tomorrow Tuesday 10-14 and a crash. Note IBD MF index down 10.4% off its highs and DOWN 6.5% ytd so average investor getting destroyed. Fed buys stocks and stock indexes tomorrow but the Goldman Sachs, THE morgan Stanley and THE JPM are all leveraged short and will wreck the fed and all other investors this week with a 20% haircut likely. Buckle up for the plunge. GET TO CASH NOW!!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Oversold

    by nelsonjedi1958 Oct 12, 2014 10:53 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Oct 12, 2014 11:20 PM Flag

    market was oversold in late September 2008 only to crash in oct 2008

  • ibdman15 ibdman15 Oct 11, 2014 11:57 PM Flag

    wrong Dow down 700-1000 Monday! it's all over. stagflation/deflation with zero rates. neva has happened in history so market could crash 50% or more.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Snapshot of market Correction

    by ibdman15 Oct 11, 2014 12:03 AM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Oct 11, 2014 6:12 PM Flag

    broad equity market in SEVERE Correction so raise cash. Equity market is headed much, much lower over the next several months! sell and get to cash.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Russell 2 k now down 13.4% from 52 week highs and all IBD Indexes down 11.5-12.5%. The IBD MF Index of the best and brightest fund managers in the USA is down 5.6% YTD, and well off its highs. It will be incorrect to use p/c of 1.16 to try and call a bottom. its different this time. market in long-tern down-trend. raise cash before S & P and Dow are down 50%.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Bloomberg - Futures down 173 points

    by olderdud Oct 10, 2014 6:25 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Oct 10, 2014 6:31 PM Flag

    Russell 2000 futures just breached Sept 2013 lows!!! Widespread Panic! and what about St Louis and the mass racial riots across the USA this weekend? don't go into an inner city.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Nice call by ibdman an a few others

    by vagitarian_kid Oct 10, 2014 5:58 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Oct 10, 2014 6:25 PM Flag

    thanks Brotha! CNBC's ratings will quickly decline as the folks turn off the tube.

    Cramer may have a heart attack on the set. Let's try to pick the bottom! with p/c over 1.2. Or should we wait for the 12 month Bear market to end. remember when everyone thought the VIX at 30 formerly called a Bear bottom yet it went to 90 in 2008-2009? The p/c could go to 2 in 2015 before the margin calls and carnage end. Don't tap your HELOC to buy the SPY. could drop to $100 or lower.

    Thank God for the deflation. But the problem is Zero interest rates and Deflation is a death cocktail. Uncharted waters. Sell sell sell.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 ibdman15 Oct 10, 2014 6:18 PM Flag

    Market in Correction hope ya'll got out. Looks like a 1987 type crash could occur on Tuesday with today's SPX close right on 200 dma and LOD today.. R2K and S & P 600 both in defined downtrends below their death crosses of both their simple and Exp DMA's. NYSE Comp and NDQ mired below their 200 DMA's already and IBD MF index, 85/85 index, new America Index and the top rated IBD 50 got clocked again today. the Dow's 115 point drop was minor compared to the broad market devastation. Get out. market order, there may not be a pop. air pockets abound when studying the VWAP's and Volume by Price weekly charts. IW easily to $84 in a few days. Hardly any Volume traded from $108 down to $84 during the advance relatively speaking.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 ibdman15 Oct 9, 2014 11:26 PM Flag

    yep market still in correction. R2K/IWM back below November 2013 lows heading for Oct 2013 lows next with air pocket to $84 or $840 on r2k.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Not because the overall pie is growing, Alcoa is simply taking market share from other aluminum competitors and alternate materials. They have been able to drive up price and that creates the inflation so rates will increase to curb the inflation. Double edged sword. Also Alcoa not a market leader and really means nothing. Need to watch the IBD 59 and IBD NF index along with the Russell 2 k for clues. Market in a defined downtrend of lower highs and lower lows. Plus the strong US dollar actually helps AA but hurts most of the s & p 500 COMPANIES Great day to take chips off and reduce your margin.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Remember the day in October 2008 when dow advanced 900 only to fall another 3000 points by end of November 2008 ? Today was just day one of a rally attempt since last Thursdays low was undercut this morning and yesterday. Market still in correction so raise cash. I cashed in 7 % before the close leaving only 15% in long positions. The rest short and cash. Don't pay attention to MSM. Fed minutes did not really cause the huge advance today. Just more buyers than sellers.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 ibdman15 Oct 7, 2014 10:00 PM Flag

    R2K and S & P 600 down over 11 % off highs and down over 7.3% YTD. IBD MF Index down 2.5% YTD. not good. The US consumer I done. It's all over. Correction deepens. Also take note that the NYSE is now smartly below its 200 dma joining the small caps as the corrections takes hold and the market is now in a primary downtrend making lower highs and lower lows. The bulls are still in the early "stages of "disbelief".. Desperation will hit about 9 months from now when the S & P 500 is down 50% and small caps are down 65-70% off their highs. Then the sheep will capitulate . remember Market in Correction raise cash. Uptrend doesn't have to resume just because it has the past 5.5 years every time there was a small correction. This is likely the Big One. D- E D- on the major indexes and E on the IWM

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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