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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Message Board

ibdman15 97 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 9, 2015 5:12 PM Member since: Mar 10, 1999
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  • and well below declining 200 dma. get out!!

    Market about to reverse to a new lower low undercutting August 24 then tank toward 1800 and 1500

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • IBD tonight

    The Nasdaq rubbed out a 1.1% loss and finished up 0.4%. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones industrial rose 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively. Small caps outperformed as the S&P 600 sprinted ahead 1.2%.

    The IBD 50 added 0.7%.

    Volume fell across the board.

    The market found traction after the Fed minutes were released. The minutes didn't reveal anything new, but apparently hearing things twice reassured the skeptics.

    From a technical standpoint, the day was constructive. The S&P 500 closed above its 50-day line, a position it hasn't been in since mid-August.

    The Nasdaq is only 1% below its 50-day line but it hasn't made a serious run at it yet.

    Also, the 50-day lines for both are curving south and are below the 200-day lines, which isn't an ideal setup.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Coast is clear - smooth sailing go all in STOCKS!

    by ibdman15 Oct 8, 2015 4:23 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Oct 8, 2015 4:32 PM Flag

    2015 and 2016 will be terrible years for the US stock market. today was an excellent day to raise cash before the close and initiate more shorts and inverse ETF's notice the volume declined across the board so no Institutional follow-up to the recent rally. The Goldman Sachs knows.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 ibdman15 Oct 8, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    the AA miss wasn't as bad as "the market" expected. so AA tanking and SPY advancing. great news for the broad market.

    the presumption is the market will keep advancing but it won't. the dead cat bounce is long in the tooth as the next leg down is near and the August 24 th low has yet to be undercut so the double bottom can' play out.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • MDY, SPY NYSE, SPX and Dow all above declining 50 dma's, SMH is above flattening 50 DMA....leading after lagging

    NDQ, IWM, Q's and XLF all below declining 50 ma's still.

    Too many folks know the market should drop so it won't. Unreal. Santa Claus rally is here although retail sales were down 9% at brick and Mortar for September. and Alcoa was a disaster but okay since they are just #3 and low aluminum prices great for the consumer of aluminum!! they will blame retail sales carnage on the Labor day Holiday falling on a Monday or something like back to school shopping was mostly done in august and there are less kids in school now because many are home schooled and don't need fancy cloths. Kudlow, Yellen and Cramer will save the market.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Bear Market Considerations

    by ibdman15 Oct 4, 2015 11:02 AM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Oct 7, 2015 9:29 PM Flag

    it ain't over folks. sales are coming to a grinding halt all over the place here in the good ole' USA. It's the reality of this RECESSION that is just starting. Obviously that translates to earnings decreases and losses. Buckle up for a long cold fall and winter. Raise cash on this dead cat bounce. below the declining 50 and 200 dma's.

  • ibdman15 ibdman15 Oct 7, 2015 5:10 PM Flag

    its all over. the declining 50 day is a ceiling and this is not a double bottom. The second low never undercut the august 24 low to shake out the weak hands. and well below declining 200 dma.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Mother of short squeezes soon or complete collapse. Higher than summer 2008. IBD today;

    NDQ suffered a DD yesterday and IBD 50 got crushed (down 1.5%) versus the NDQ and the broad FED manipulated market with the SPX down just 0.4%.

    "Tuesday's distribution day for the Nasdaq shows that sellers are still around in this market. The market remains in a confirmed uptrend, thanks to Friday's follow-through for the S&P 500, but it's still a risky environment.

    The Nasdaq's 50-day moving average is a potential resistance level. The S&P 500 closed just below its 50-day moving average Tuesday. Even if it climbs above the line, it still has its 200-day line to contend with at around 2,060.

    There is one main difference between the Nasdaq's Sept. 8 follow-through, which failed quickly, and the one that the S&P 500 flashed on Friday: The latter is working better — at least for now. In September, a bearish reversal in higher volume right after the follow-through raised immediate doubts."

    will know the outcome in 1-4 weeks! Cash is safest place in case we get complete carnage of the markets.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 by ibdman15 Oct 5, 2015 10:14 PM Flag

    did I hear down 4.3% is consensus EPS growth for this quarter? what if its down 15% with negative guidance and everything from sals to sales outlooks re worse than expected? not smooth sailing yet. could we be in for a 1929 or 2008 type crash?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Stage 4 Decline
    sellers are in control lower highs and lower lows are prevailing
    in a downtrend the sum of the declines will be greater than the sum of the rallies
    lower lows below declining longer-term moving averages (100, 150 and 200)
    low volume dead cat bounces will fail as more frustrated buyers realize that a bottom hasn't been found
    don't trust gaps higher and upside reversals like we had Friday on the pathetic jobs report/massive miss of expectations. Was simply a short squeeze and some short profit taking off the gap down at the open.
    watch those declining longer term moving averages.
    remember the decline didn't really get going until early august after a year or so of market distribution. Bear Markets usually last 9 months to a year or year and a half.
    It ain't over just b, its just beginning. don't get trapped thinking that Friday's action marked the end of the Correction because this time it is the early innings of a nasty prolonged Bear Market. The FED can do nothing at this stage.... and what difference does it make!
    The normal business cycle will eventually play out and the Recession has already begun
    Finally, how many jobs (in the pathetic jobs report) are going to native born Americans versus foreign born? Your head will spin when you see the answer by digging thru the government's employment report.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I say sell the rip and IBD sort of confirms that. in their Big Picture column tonight:

    The report, though, was ugly. The September payrolls figure was 30% below the consensus view and 21% below the most pessimistic estimate in the range.

    Factory orders for August also soundly missed the Street's consensus estimate.

    Although the market is now in a confirmed uptrend, conditions aren't ideal. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are about 3% to 5% under their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This means the rally could face early tests.

    As discussed in Friday's Big Picture, markets that showed sharp and quick sell-offs — such as August 2011 and May 2010 — took about four months to recover. (This market had a sharp and fast sell-off in late August.)

    However in the 2010 and 2011 cases, follow-through days of varying quality occurred during the four months of chopping around.

    For the week, the Nasdaq inched up 0.4%, while the S&P 500 added 1%. The IBD 50 lost 0.3%. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 2.2%.

    SPY could be back below 185 next week. Buckle up ya'll!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • at 10:15 am Eastern and has been ramping the market all day on declining volume. they have also signaled that due to the recessionary environment, the first interest rate hike will not occur until march 2016 at the earliest and they will likely hold off until the recession ends sometime in 2017-2018 time period. smooth sailing hold and buy more stocks and Junk bonds since zero yield anywhere else. Hopefully someone else will be holding these instruments when the music stops. remember the current stock levels are still under the pre jobs report futures values. the jobs report was horrendous yet they will call it an aberration now that the Fed had stepped in to buy s & P futures. the FED members are simply puppets to help save the Obama administration

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • no idea....people are losing their jobs. they know nothing they know nothing!!!!

    Fed will step in and buy SPX futures this morning. They can't afford for the market to decline another 30% in Q4

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Liberals and the NFP

    by ibdman15 Oct 2, 2015 8:36 AM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Oct 2, 2015 8:51 AM Flag

    what has the LPR done under 7 years of Obama, hint 67% to 62%. has nothing to do with Bush. Remember the entire financial crisis was created by liberals who required banks to lend to folks with bad credit.
    BTW don't pay attention to those that equate what the stock market does to the Fed's artificial interest manipulate low forever interest rates. this time is unlike no other time ever where we have had near zero rates for 7 years. will be a different result. probably time to sell all stocks bonds and mutual funds

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Liberals and the NFP

    by ibdman15 Oct 2, 2015 8:36 AM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Oct 2, 2015 8:39 AM Flag

    62.4% Labor participation rate - lowest since Jimmy Carter.....way to go Obama and your Liberal friends! 5.1% Unemployment, what a joke! How many college grads are 26-32 without real jobs??? wait until their parents stop funding them.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • but the spin democrat machine will say," but at no other time in the history of the US have so many people be employed.....LOL we are already in Recession heading for depression. New measure should be how many folks with master degrees don't work or are working in the service sector such as subway , bartending, Outback steakhouse etc....
    the real unemployment rate is over 12%. stock market has another 50% down to go!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Good point from IBD about the current downtrend. the newsletter writers are still not very bearish at only 35% and Bullish ones down to 25%. recall the bearish ones have been in the teens for the past two years so ticking up only slightly, "The weekly newsletter editor survey by Investors Intelligence now shows that nearly 1 out of every 4 pundits is bullish about the market going forward. However, just 35% of the crowd is outright bearish. It may take more market bloodshed before bearishness gets to high-enough levels that it can become an effective contrarian indicator.

    The Nasdaq composite finished the third quarter down 7.4%. Sharp sell-offs that began in late-July — when IBD's Market Pulse shifted its outlook to "uptrend under pressure" from "confirmed uptrend" — led to the Nasdaq losing all of its gains for 2015.

    The S&P 500 dropped 6.9% during the July-to-September period and is down 6.7% since Jan. 1."

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Monthly Chart

    by ibdman15 Sep 29, 2015 7:53 AM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Sep 30, 2015 10:39 AM Flag

    read and heed! time to be afraid, very afraid. Carl Icahn is correct.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • See below from a widely read financial advisor. What they don't point out is these are not ordinary times with fabricated panicked zero rates by the FED for 6 years and no rate hike for almost 10 years.
    "Six-plus years have passed since the bull began—the longest ever without a rate hike. People
    focus on this, assuming near-zero interest rates fueled stocks, but this is like driving forward
    while looking backward. Few mention the length of time between the first hike and a bull’s end.
    (Exhibit 11) The six bull markets since 1970 have all lasted over a year after the Fed’s first
    move. The average length after an initial hike is 3.3 years, with returns through the peak ranging
    from 21% to 225%. Initial rate hikes don’t kill bull markets."

    they will be wrong. We are in a Bear market and 50% drop on the S& P is imminent by the end of 2015. and we are 74 months into a Bull, so long in the tooth!!! Just simply go to CASH on today's rip.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • p/c was 1.37 Monday
    held up yesterday, futures rocketing today
    Bear might be over! buy buy buy!
    unless, of course, more folks start throwing in the towel on today's possible dead cat bounce. seems like there was similar fear and greed in the last week of Sept 2008/ first week of October and things continued south Big Time until early March 2009. to the tune of another 40% drop!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

201.52-0.99(-0.49%)Oct 12 4:24 PMEDT