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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Message Board

ibdman15 256 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Mar 10, 1999
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  • Things to consider
    two consecutive down months
    bulls are born on pessimism (feb -march 2009), grow on skepticism (09-10), mature on optimism (11-12) and die on euphoria (2013-2014) hockey curve turned distribution.
    Is the bull 6 years old or 3.5 years old factoring in the 20-26% corrections that ended in October 2011. Most Bulls run 2-4 years so either way this Bull is long in the tooth. largest correction since 2011 has been just 13%.
    Share buybacks - corporations have for the past four years had nothing better to do with their excess cash flow than repurchase shares so if the economy improves and they buy back less shares and increase capital spending, markets could really crash since they and the FED have been the underlying Put.

    when oil prices rebound the consumer is Totally screwed, and the high paying oil and gas jobs in the US will already be gone. be careful what you wish for.

    In a nutshell, now is the time to get out of equities, mutual funds, retirement target funds and sit in cash. then buy back in when the SPX is down 50% or more from the 2100 high so around 1050 would be a good entry point. and don't forget about the earnings and sales downgrades that are occurring each and every day.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    NYSE Death Cross

    by ibdman15 Jan 28, 2015 10:21 AM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 21 hours ago Flag

    yes and so it goes. even Carter Worth was looking a bit worn out with his "presumption" charts on Fast Money tonight. he knows the US market is about to crash and burn. Winter will last about 9-18 months or so. Trillions of wealth will evaporate. do not be left holding the bag as the music stops.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 ibdman15 Jan 30, 2015 7:57 PM Flag

    January Performance down across the board
    SPX 3%
    NDQ 2.1%
    Dow 3.6%
    Financials (XLF) 7%
    R2k (IWM) 3.2%
    Semiconductors (SMH) 3.5%
    Oil (USO) 12.3%
    IBD MF Index 2.53%
    But TLT up almost 10%!!!!!

    Per Bespoke and The Ben Bernank, 94.3% of the time when these key indexes are down by these %'s in January after a six year Bull market and near zero interest rates, the year ends down 25% or more. and it's even more prevalent when the financials are down 7%! so much for the January effect???

    Now IBD still has the Uptrend Under Pressure but they will shift to Mkt in Correction after the Super Bowl. what if there is a Measles outbreak in Phoenix....or something way worse????

    I know, I'm an Idiot and should buy the dip to keep the Ponzi scheme going. but it will be better to buy the dip when the indexes are down 50-70% several months out and the LONGSare jumping out of windows and the number of folks with $1 M in their 401 k plan drops from 72 k down to 10 k.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • today's action on accelerating volume has shifted the market outlook to Correction. with the impending Death Cross on the NYSE Composite likely to occur Monday or Tuesday and the financials down almost 7% since January 2, it is time to be extremely cautious as this Bull Market is approaching the 6-year mark. The US market indexes continue to print lower highs and lower lows, the definition of a primary downtrend. this negative equity and equity index action, coupled with the broad based NYSE Composite now trading below its declining 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages means the average individual and Institutional investor should be back to 100% cash, in bonds or short equities and equity indexes. Raise cash. King US dollar is strong

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • on flattish to slightly declining volume. and look at VIsa and Amazon after hours better than expected. AMZN doesn't even make a profit. GOOG not so much. Tomorrow the Dow could drop 1,000 or so and SPX down 200. Market almost in Correction raise cash

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Okay let me make sure I have this correct. The Big Banks and the FED don't want Congressional oversight of the partisan FED yet its okay for CNBC and the WSJ to tell them exactly what "the market" expects them to do every second. as Cramer once said "they're nuts they know nothing, people are losing their jobs!!!" (August 2007), I think, "people" meant his friends on Wall Street.

    BTW market is in a Correction and this correction is the beginning of a devastating bear market and recession that will go down in the record books even if everything is just peachy over at Starbucks, Boeing, GE and Costco. If things were so awesome why have Interest rates been zero for 6 years and college grads with huge student loan debt can't find well paying jobs with benefits?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 ibdman15 Jan 28, 2015 9:45 PM Flag

    good one! LOL

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 ibdman15 Jan 28, 2015 9:35 PM Flag

    Dude, I'm doing just fine. I am Bullish occasionally too and make money then and make my when bearish. can't buy and hold. doesn't work. will easily lose 50% when the big one hits. and as Fred Sanford would say, "this is the BIG One Elizabeth, I'm coming to see ya honey!!!"

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 ibdman15 Jan 28, 2015 9:18 PM Flag

    it means it's all over. sell your 401k's, IRA's margin accounts etc., because JPM, MS and GS are all selling short. don't be a sheep left holding the BAG that no one else wants.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    NYSE Death Cross

    by ibdman15 Jan 28, 2015 10:21 AM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Jan 28, 2015 8:56 PM Flag

    and this too, the ultimate DEATH CROSS on the NYSE Comp will be occurring soon and this one will stay in play for 9-18 months during a primary market downtrend as US economy experiences a devastating RECESSION that NO ONE saw coming. better get to CASH or short........................LOL

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • what does this mean other than another day of distribution by the Institutional Investors? one day we wake up and futures are down 2000 Dow points and all of the sudden a few days later, the Dow is under 10,000 and CNBC will be out of ammo. Bloomberg too. Better raise CASH before it's toooooooo late.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 by ibdman15 Jan 28, 2015 10:21 AM Flag

    Jan 6, golden cross Jan 23, new and final DEATH Cross Feb 3. It's all over. Oil to $20 SPX to 1300 then 1000 i.e. 130 and 100 SPY. get ready. earnings estimates declining yet forward PE is huge strong dollar wrecking international sales and margin but everything perfect at starbucks until its not.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • some AAPL and BA rally though! Perhaps AAPL can just buy SPX futures for the FED with all their cash and own the world.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 ibdman15 Jan 27, 2015 9:33 PM Flag

    1300 B4 2100

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 ibdman15 Jan 27, 2015 7:26 PM Flag

    AAPL should take their CASH holdings (that can buy out 480 of the S & P 500 companies) and make a tiny dent in the US National debt of $18 T. or wait until rates rise and the USA goes into turmoil when the treasury defaults on the debt payments. all federal pensions cease. get ready its coming.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    YTD Performance and Mr Odey

    by ibdman15 Jan 27, 2015 7:11 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Jan 27, 2015 7:16 PM Flag

    "I think equity markets will get devastated," warns famed $12bn AUM hedge fund manager Crispin Odey in his latest letter to investors. Having been one of the biggest bulls of this particular central bank artificial-bull cycle, his dramatic bearish tilt (as we discussed what he thinks are the biggest risks underpriced by the market previously), is notable. Finally, Odey fears major economies are entering a recession that will be "remembered in a hundred years," adding that the "bearish opportunity" to short stocks looks as great as it was in 2007-2009.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • down 1.4 spx 1.2 NDQ 2.4 Dow 1.04 MF index. The key indexes in IBD. Now Odey from Great Britain who manages $12 B Euros comes out and says the equity markets in Europe and US will crash (worst in 100 years on serious generational recession). and he has quadrupled his peers performance since starting his fund in 2001. He's probably correct and AAPL after being up 6% AH's will close down 5% tomorrow as the Institutions Ring the register at the top for AAPL and a lower high for the indexes. watch and learn. The CAT outlook and government data for Nov and Dec today are very. Who cares that Boeing has 7 years of backlog? airlines can always cancel those massive plane orders if the folks stop flying because they have no money to squander to the airlines.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    wow aapl crushed

    by adam_legrande Jan 27, 2015 4:41 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Jan 27, 2015 5:41 PM Flag

    but aapl will not prevent the broad market from crashing and a BEAR market from taking hold. companies always have record sales and earnings at the top just like Q4 1999 and Q3 2007. Top is in. remember Qualcomm in 1999? Recession already began. won't be announced for 6-9 months.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    AAPL Earnings leak

    by ibdman15 Jan 27, 2015 2:47 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Jan 27, 2015 4:21 PM Flag

    you got 9 minutes to sell Apple stock after hours before the 12% drop on the reduced outlook

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Death Cross Imminent on NYSE Comp

    by ibdman15 Jan 27, 2015 2:56 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Jan 27, 2015 3:26 PM Flag

    seriously folks, consider the Bull market is almost 6 years long in the tooth. the low interest rates and endless QE prop stocks until one day they don't. Don't assume that the market will advance or even stay flattish. Much distribution taking place. HUGE crash is imminent. don't get caught with pants down. It's difficult to recover from a 50% decline that occurs over a few months. could lose 20% in a week or two at these inflated nosebleed PE's and P/S ratios. looks like we are heading for the lows of the day for the close.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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