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ibdman15 100 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 17, 2014 11:50 PM Member since: Mar 10, 1999
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  • Reply to

    at least Janet is not a "target" for ISIS....

    by nogwabd Sep 17, 2014 11:41 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Sep 17, 2014 11:50 PM Flag

    she could be an ISIL target along with all the Fed presidents since all are mostly of Jewish decent and Muslims hate Jewish folks along with Americans in general so what better way to hurt the US then a terror attack that crashes the stock market wrecking the wealth of upper middle class and higher. They are already here and ready to pounce on us.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • all closed low in the day's range. current DD count 4 and 3. Uptrend Under Pressure. I think Bill O'Reilly nailed it tonight when he said the Dow could drop 600 points in 10 seconds when the terror attack occurs on US soil. BTW 75% of the 10 M jobs created since BHO took office are low wage PT jobs. and labor participation rate at 1978 levels dropping from 65% to 62% under this Numb Nut's tenure. and the record stock market that the FED so desperately wants to keep inflated only affects 20% of citizens. Time to short with everything. Mortgage the farm, the house the boat and the first, second and third born. The equity market bubble is about to pop. Why not short on margin since record low interest rates. stocks go up and stocks go down. and we are due for a massive Bear market and the Fed can do nothing to prevent it.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • IWM below declining 5, 10 and 50 dma's 50 about to breach the 200 dma. Last ditch bounce before the cliff.

    DEATH CROSS

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • CNBC just showed the NYSE trading floor....all middle aged white men. they need to have a protest and storm the floor during trading. Hire the homeless and local welfare folks to participate in the demonstration like they do during the fast food minimum wage protests.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Better sell before it occurs. The last 7 times since 1963 that a Fed statement came out in September after a new FED Chairmen was installed, the S & P 500 dropped an average of 1.67% on that day. SELL SELL SELL, they know nothing and market is in correction. Just look at the Death Cross on the Russell 2000! Get to Cash. and now CNBC's Joey Kernan is whispering Aliboba in the background like he was doing at the QUALCOMM blowoff top in late 1999. The IPO will be a HUGE letdown and is coinciding with a multi-year stock market top. Better sell.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 ibdman15 Sep 16, 2014 8:42 PM Flag

    yes WSJ's Hildenswrath and CNBC's Liseman already know what it says and actually help the FED write the statement. Then they let all their friends know what to do ahead of the official release.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • death cross occurs tomorrow, accelerating volume today and a candle of indecision. A/D on IWM mired at E.
    It appears the R2k is headed for $900 quite quickly. Don't forget the Scotland succession from the UK and that potential impact to world stock and Bond markets. Couple that with the Ebola and domestic terror attack threat that will send the economy into a deeper recession than 2007-2009. Remember although the Dow is near new highs the Russell is now 5.5% off it's June 30 high.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    DEATH Cross imminent on Russell 2000

    by ibdman15 Sep 12, 2014 9:01 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Sep 15, 2014 8:21 PM Flag

    As I stated last week Small AND MID CAPS are in a world of hurt and will lead the CRASH. You have been warned. Two consecutive days of institutional selling of the Russell 2000 on accelerating volume means the uptrend is now under pressure per IBD. The big concern is the imminent DEATH CROSS on both the R2K and the IBD MF index. Dow up today in flight to quality. However there will be no where in the stock market
    To hide during the crash that has begun. Sell sell sell! And remember they know nothing!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    DEATH Cross imminent on Russell 2000

    by ibdman15 Sep 12, 2014 9:01 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Sep 14, 2014 9:43 PM Flag

    It's over. the Bull has died. R2K DEATH Cross occurs this week and primary downtrend has begun. Market in Correction raise cash. Uncharted waters, zero Interest rates and a new deep Recession has begun. What will the stock market do? and don't forget about the UK falling apart. Perhaps that money leaves the UK and ends up in the SPY? or the SPXU?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Look at IWM chart. a/d = E, the 50 DMA declining and about to cross below the flattened 200 dma. pattern target is 121- (121-107.4) = 93.5. currently 115. don't hold that fall from grace. After that plummet it will likely hit $65 as the recession gains traction over the next two months. Recession?? Oil and Gold could be telling us something the USA could be just one ISIS dude shooting up Mall of America or other huge shopping venue to tip US into a ye a Recession. and now we are at WAR with ISIS although not all Muslims are terrorists but........all "modern day" terrorists are Muslims. Note we said "Modern day terrorists" so folks won't point out Mr. McVey.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • looks just like last two days. note huge volume on IWM's 1.2% decline yesterday and declining volume on today's slight bounce. 10% haircut on IWM/R2K is imminent. Could a 911 type event be the catalyst? Probably a good for for individual investors be 100% cash and let the institutional investors panic sell.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    RUT will make a big move higher tomorrow

    by shawnsmith5100 Sep 8, 2014 9:56 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Sep 9, 2014 11:09 PM Flag

    IWM down 7% this week after the dust settles. a/d is E. been stuck on E for quite awhile. Major institutional dump and retail is left holding the damaged goods.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    market drops 5-7% this week

    by ibdman15 Sep 7, 2014 8:16 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Sep 9, 2014 9:43 PM Flag

    yep.......and so it goes. a/d's horrendous indicating Institutional selling E, D D-, p/c just 0.78 on today's Ugly Distribution day across all indexes. Big correction turned Bear market Imminent. get out before you are down 20% and don't buy the dip because a free fall is coming for 12-18 months. Study the casualties by country in WW2 and % of populations killed. What if we had WW3? Or ISIS is successful on an attack in the US or Great Britan? would it be a good time to be in the stock market? What if we have the Deflation/Stagflation with zero Interest rates? ........is that uncharted waters?? I stand by my prediction of down 5-7% this week across the board. Only utilities will escape the carnage.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    market drops 5-7% this week

    by ibdman15 Sep 7, 2014 8:16 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Sep 8, 2014 2:19 PM Flag

    here we go on higher volume distribution day shaping up. after much stalling/churning action. Note r2K is down 4% from its 52 week high and will lead the entire market lower on this next Bear phase of the megaphone pattern. 60% down is ambitious but 30-40% seems very likely. will see how many institutions fold em' on this next leg lower. Huge DEFALATION coming and the Russia/China turmoil not to mention the Muslims will wreck havoc on the world equity market with a massive re-pricing lower imminent. The FED is out of ammo.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • get ready. the folks that buy the dip will be wrong this time. and down 20% by end of the month. be very concerned and pray if you are still long.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • "Profit margins are going to fully revert to the pre-1990s average. On this assumption, the market is outrageously expensive. If, at a profit margin of 9% to 10%, EPS comes in at $103.5, and if profit margins are headed to the pre-1990s average of 5% or 6%, then the implication is that EPS is headed to around $55 (a number that will be adjusted upward in the presence of sales growth and inflation–but only as time gradually passes). Instead of a historically elevated TTM P/E of 19, the market would be sitting at a true, normalized TTM P/E of around 36.

    Obviously, if margins and earnings were to suddenly come apart, such that the S&P at 2000 shifts from being valued at 19 times earnings to being valued at 36 times earnings, as opposed to the “15 times forward” that investors think they are buying into, prices would suffer a huge adjustment. If the shift were to happen quickly, over a short number of months or quarters, the market would almost certainly crash.

    But even if the shift were to happen very slowly, such that EPS simply stagnates in place, without falling precipitously, real returns over the next decade, and maybe even the next two or three decades, would still end up being very low–zero or even negative. The profit margin contraction would eat away at real EPS growth, as it did from the 1960s until the 1990s. Even nominal returns over various relevant horizons might end up being zero or negative."

    and the catalyst will be the next recession that could be a few years out but no one knows just like in 2007.....and an external unexpected event will cause that similar to what 9-11 did in 2001-2002. Market Bubble/tech wreck began 17 months before that horrific event. This FED bubble could burst before the new jihadists event and by the time it becomes apparent that the Recession has begun, the market could be down 40% just the beginning of an 80-90% peak to trough. SPX 666 could happen again and possibly even lower. PS, watch the asteroid too.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • NYSE Comp Dist days Tuesday and Thursday. NDQ DD yesterday. IWM/R2K chart is very ominous to a downside break. perfect short set up with three rallies above 50 dma after the initial break down in early April on high volume. re-read "How to make money selling stocks short" by Wm J O'neil

    plus record Bull vs Bear spread on newsletter writers at investors intelligence. lowest % bears since just before 1987 market crash indicating EXTREME COMPLACENCY. it just needs a spark. perhaps White House Down or a multiple simultaneous shopping Mall Incident by ISIS in the US? or all those missing jets start exploding over European cities? Or the Arabs Nuke Israel.....or the Bed Bugs in the NY Subway get infected with Ebola.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Deflation

    by ibdman15 Sep 2, 2014 12:38 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Sep 3, 2014 10:40 PM Flag

    it's all over!!!! TOP is in for 2014 and 2015.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Deflation

    by ibdman15 Sep 2, 2014 12:38 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Sep 2, 2014 9:58 PM Flag

    September closes below 1850 and October below 1600 on the SPX. then we either crash or go sideways for a few months after republicans take control of senate. go to 100% cash or short now.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Deflation

    by ibdman15 Sep 2, 2014 12:38 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Sep 2, 2014 1:04 PM Flag

    okay then, we get hyper inflation and rates skyrocket. NYSE Short Interest at multi Year High of 5.32 Days as of Friday. and that's well above other market peaks in the past 20 years. Some say it's a contrarian indicator but what if the experts are correct for a change and this is a multi year generational type top? Why not sell and go to cash for a few months and see how it all plays out? I heard the FED is near bankruptcy with just $56 B in assets but $4.5 T in debt. Not that it matters but worth noting. Jackson Hole may have been their last party like its 1929 and 1999 before the FED collapses.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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