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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Message Board

ibdman15 161 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 19, 2014 10:43 PM Member since: Mar 10, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Where is IBDman?

    by ravasaur Dec 19, 2014 8:01 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Dec 19, 2014 10:43 PM Flag

    keep holding. Cash is king 70% and 30% short as of today. will be able to go long when S & P is down 30-50% in the next 3-4 months. It's not a matter of if the market crashes its a matter of when, it's going to happen and its likely real soon with all those Alla Ackbars (sp) lurking in our neighborhoods ready to strike the folks. Is Obama going to Hawaii again? He's probably one of them. The press wants tomorrow to be a HUGE shopping day, but it won't be.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • market in correction folks. last three days were good sell points to get to cash once and for all. Baltic Dry Index down 40% since Thanksgiving Day and down 21 straight days. some will say oversupply of ships....but it really means global aggregate demand for stuff is falling off the cliff. These last two trading weeks will be a major crash in US equities. Note IBD MF index was actually down 0.51% today while Dojis on the major indexes albeit up on the day but well off the highs.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Per IBD - Stocks gapped up at the open Thursday and never looked back.

    The S&P 500 sprinted 2.4%, while the Nasdaq tagged along with a 2.2% gain.

    The IBD 50 also added 2.2%.

    Volume fell modestly on both major exchanges. ?????

    The back-to-back days of hefty price gains were the best in months. For the Nasdaq, it was its best three-day rally since Oct. 17-21, when the composite strung together three 1%-or-higher gains. The third of those was the Oct. 21 follow-through day.

    Despite the impressive price pops, investors should delay buying stocks until the market delivers a follow-through, which would confirm that a new uptrend is underway.

    It's also good to keep in mind for now that the past two days of big percentage gains were preceded by three distribution days in a row — the footprints of institutional selling.

    A fight is in process for the soul of this market, and it isn't yet clear who will win.

    All clear signal has not yet been triggered

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Market in Correction - Raise Cash

    by ibdman15 Dec 15, 2014 6:58 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Dec 17, 2014 11:04 PM Flag

    Yes market is in a correction, don't jump the gun until it plays out could stay in a downtrend for a year or more. use this big rips like today to raise cash. market will correct 50% down to 1000. then buy back in. today was simply a dead cat oversold bounce.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Asia likes what Yellen had to say

    by whatamarket Dec 17, 2014 8:50 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Dec 17, 2014 8:59 PM Flag

    things are great that's why home sales down in China 3.7% in November for third consecutive month of wealth evaporation. perhaps all that Chinese money is going into US $'s and US stocks? but probably not. Wall street and CNBC told Yellen and her speech writers exactly what to say!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • a/d's E yesterday improved to D- today. volume declined on the Naddy and NYSE comp. Not much conviction behind the huge advance today. If anything folks were selling into the strength to get out. I suspect the market takes out it's most recent lows by COT Friday.

    There is a Black Swan event lurking......probably before Christmas. Could Castro and his pals in Venezuela be heading over to the WH for dinner, golf and hoop with Hussein Obama?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • They keep saying the consumers will spend their oil/gas savings on other stuff. or they may bank it, wait for the deflation to kick in for a few years then maybe spend it on less expensive stuff. The FED is scared to death of the Deflation/Stagflation. even MCD wages in North Dakota and N. PA set to decline. US Oil boom is over. don't need the Keystone pipeline anymore.

    FDX should have knocked it out of the park with the fuel costs being down so much.

    Attention Hedge funds and Mutual Fund managers If still long the US stock market you gotta get out before your competition does. Remember the US $ is very strong so cash isn't such a bad place to be for a year or two while the stock market declines 50-70%.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • CNBC spent five minutes justifying why the bad news at FED X is actually good news yet the premarket shows large declines on FED X. Are the fund managers not listening to the morning anchors and guests of CNBC?

    If high oil is great for stocks, how can low oil also be great for stocks. Historically when oil collapses it means a global recession is in progress. when market is in correction, 85% of all stocks will decline with it and the high flyers will decline at 2-3 X as fast as the market. better sell your Facebook, Alaibaba, Twitter, SPY, QQQ, IWM, MDY etc.....and your equity mutual funds. this isn't a buy the dip event.

    what if those "lone wolf" Muslim terrorists attack the FED meeting or CNBC headquarters? we probably should not attend the Sony movie, sounds like it ain't worth the "risk off", as CNBC would say. are we at a generational stock market bottom after a two week decline???? These guys need to just report the financial news instead of offering their opinion of what they think the market should do and prodding the FED on what the market expects them to do in their statement.

    I suspect no matter what the FED says the market sells off because the market is in a downtrend and a Bear market has begun verifying that the normal business cycle could simply be playing out.

    watch the 50 and 200 dma's. not looking good on the NYSE Composite or Wilshire 5000 Index. Or the IBD Mutual Fund Index of the best Portfolio Managers in the world.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Market in Correction - Raise Cash

    by ibdman15 Dec 15, 2014 6:58 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Dec 16, 2014 11:26 PM Flag

    another downside reversal on huge volume today. Bear market just getting started. The Bull lasted six years so the Bear could last 1-2 years. March 2000- March 2003, Oct 2007-March 2009, Dec 2014 - ????

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Market in Correction - Raise Cash

    by ibdman15 Dec 15, 2014 6:58 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Dec 16, 2014 7:50 AM Flag

    stage is set for SPX close below 1940 /SPY 194 today. buckle up.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Market in Correction - Raise Cash

    by ibdman15 Dec 15, 2014 6:58 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Dec 16, 2014 7:21 AM Flag

    remember, along with your last minute shopping to juice consumption, sell you stocks and mutual funds now or you will be shocked when your year end/ Q4 statement arrives in early January. and wonder 'what happened to my IRA/401 K ? Five-six quarters of gains completely wiped out in one quarter.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Bear Markets Open Strong and Close Weak

    by ibdman15 Dec 16, 2014 6:07 AM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Dec 16, 2014 7:15 AM Flag

    Also Bear markets can "open weak and close weaker"........LOL

    Better sell you loser pension and MF managers. get out before your competition does.

    downtrend of lower highs and lower lows is firmly in place. market in Correction raise cash.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • This will be the worst December for USA Stock Market Indexes EVER............

    Better sell today if still in equities, ETF's or Mutual Funds and get to cash. The US $ is strong.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 by ibdman15 Dec 16, 2014 6:01 AM Flag

    what a buffoon! His staff must all be idiots too. Why wouldn't he agree to an interview on Fox news the number one cable news network? Let's see how he handles the next Terror event in NY now that the NY City Police department hates him after he threw them under the bus. Check out Jesse Waters questions to him yesterday and his arrogant elitist response. Such a left wing liberal moon bat!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • NYSE flat
    R2K down
    IBD MF index down 0.28%
    Dow up 3.6%
    Naddy up 10.3%
    SPX up 7.6%
    but the later three will be down to zero or below by year end.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Psychology of the Long Holder -
    Euphoria stage ended in July 2014, Complacency stage just ended after the rebound off the Oct lows (market always rebounds, right?), Anxiety stage kicking in now until the end of 2014, Denial stage by mid January 2015, Panic stage by Summer 15, Capitulation stage Fall 2015, Anger stage late fall 2015, Depression stage January 2016 then the Disbelief stage and finally Hope stage begin to appear in spring 2016 after the 50% or more blood bath on the S & P 500 and 65% carnage on the small and mid caps.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Market in Correction - Raise Cash

    by ibdman15 Dec 15, 2014 6:58 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Dec 15, 2014 8:30 PM Flag

    It really stinks being long with huge profits in a taxable account....... just waiting and watching the market tank another 20% between now and January 2, 2015 just because you don't want to to pay 2014 capital gains. If in a retirement account, no ifs ands or buts, simply sell now. and if in a taxable account most definitely gotta sell too because a 20% drop from here just to avoid the tax man makes zero sense. and ya'll know the US market will plunge because of what the US/Saudi Arabia consortium is doing to Russia. and they will retaliate. Look at the plunge in the German DAX. Recession is coming to America. and now folks in the USA won't even buy chocolates after Australia. and those JV Islamic Extremists can obtain 100 X the fire power in the USA than in Australia. Be vigilant, stay home and don't holiday shop. and the pundits say the market never declines in December because of Santa. Looks like the Grinch is running the show this December. and SPX drops to at least 1200 (SPY 120) if not lower.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Market in Correction - Raise Cash

    by ibdman15 Dec 15, 2014 6:58 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Dec 15, 2014 7:21 PM Flag

    and it's official per IBD Tuesday edition - they followed my lead:

    "Mounting distribution puts market in correction mode"
    There's been a consistent pattern of strong opens and weak closes in the market lately, and it was more of the same Monday as early gains faded, sparked by another drop in oil prices.

    The Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose 0.8% early, but sellers quickly regained control. The Nasdaq fell 1%, ending just above its 50-day moving average. The S&P 500 wasn't so lucky. It gave up the key support level, dropping 0.6%. The Dow Jones industrial average also lost 0.6%.

    Volume rose across the board, resulting in another distribution day for the Nasdaq and S&P 500. The S&P flashed its fourth distribution day in six trading sessions.

    The weak action was enough to put the market in a correction (see the change in the Market Pulse). Headed into Monday, the market was already teetering, with five distribution days on the Nasdaq and four on the S&P 500.

    Market risk was elevated after last week's bearish action that saw the S&P 500 slump 3.5% for the week in higher volume. On Wednesday, the current outlook was downgraded to "uptrend under pressure."

    For growth investors, the best strategy is to get out of the market's way and don't try to make money when sellers have the upper hand. Losses can accelerate; big gains in winners can disappear in no time, especially when institutions are unwinding positions and taking profits.

    The market generally does a good job telling investors when to be in the market and when to be out. The message is clear now: Raise cash if you haven't done so already. At this point, the market's main focus is on plunging oil prices and the Fed.

    January WTI crude oil lost just over 3% to around $55.91 a barrel. Lower oil prices are good for the U.S. consumer, but not so good on a macro level. Fears are growing that a financial crisis could be brewing for big oil exporters like Russia and Venezuela.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • The stock market declined once again on heavy volume today marking a distribution day across the board. The NYSE Comp, a widely followed index by Professional Investors that better represents the overall health of the US stock market than the S & P 500 or Dow, fell another 0.86% mired further below its 200 dma and the Russell 2000, a proxy of 2000 small cap growth stocks breached its 200 DMA today on a 44% increase in volume versus Friday. This negative action has switched our outlook to Market in Correction. All new buys should be avoided and cash should be raised. There is no telling how deep this latest correction will be or how long it will last. One thing is for certain, the astute investor has been raising cash these last few weeks after the parabolic run off the Oct 15 th market lows.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    the Early Denial Phase of a Massive Correction...

    by nogwabd Dec 15, 2014 11:22 AM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Dec 15, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    Psychology of the Long Holder -
    Euphoria ended in July 2014, Complacency just ended after the rebound off the Oct lows (market always rebounds, right?), Anxiety kicking in now until the end of 2014, Denial by mid January 2015, Panic by Summer 15, Capitulation Fall 2015, Anger late fall 2015 Depression January 2016 then the Disbelief and Hope begin to appear in spring 2016 after a 50% or more blood bath on the S & P 500.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

SPY
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