Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Message Board

ibdman15 34 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: Mar 10, 1999
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • DD's 7 and 5 with 3 SPX and 2 NDQ set to expire this week due to time unless more DD occurs starting Monday on the Greek collapse. Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland, France next shoes to drop. then the US derivative implosion. US stock and Bond market collapse is imminent. a/d ratings are D+ D+ D + just because the p/c was 1.0 or greater for 3/4 trading days last week doesn't mean we hit a short term bottom. remember in 2008--2009? the VIX advanced all the way up to 90 when in the old days a VIX of 25-30 indicated a bottom. The P/c may go to 1.8 or 1.9 before a bottom is hit a year or two from now. SPY could drop 50- 70% before that occurs no matter what all those strategists at GS and JPM hope or say. PE about to collapse along with sales, earnings and profit margins. look for SPY to bottom below $90 perhaps as low as $67.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 ibdman15 Jul 1, 2015 10:11 PM Flag

    Greece exit, imminent terror attack...not in NY but somewhere that is not expected. perhaps a Big bank's corporate HQ's or at a very important global leader like Apple?

    Best way for those nut case Muslim Extremist aka ISIL, ISIS etc to hurt us greedy American Christian and Jewish infidels is not by killing a bunch of us in Time Square with a Nuke on Independence Day (it's too obvious) but doing something that crashes the stock and bond market before the holiday weekend even starts and that would make the folks feel poorer in effect hurting us far worse psychologically. and thinking about what's going to happen Monday for the three day weekend. because having a million bucks drop to $600 k in a week or two is a far worse psychological feeling than a few pressure cookers going off in a rowdy crowd of fireworks partiers.

    probably a good time to be in cash or short US stock markets.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • first two quarter consecutive loss since the 2007-2009 Bear market. More to come. SPY and Wilshire 5 k to follow the trannies into the abyss. buckle up folks. the #$%$ hits the fan the next few days with the terror attacks, Greece, PR, Portugal, POS France, bank runs, lower GDP, lower sales and earnings, the traders in the Hamptons and won't be engaged as a few big money holders dump stocks and indexes. Blood in streets. folks will panic sell Wednesday, Thursday and Monday. get out if still in equities.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • plus volume way up versus the heavy rebalancing volume from Friday.

    get out market ripe for a huge downdraft. remember sept-oct 2008 how fast the market crashed over a 2 week period?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Bear market is beginning

    by ibdman15 Jun 24, 2015 4:43 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Jun 29, 2015 11:49 AM Flag

    BUSTED SPY, XLF, Dow all below declining 50 dma with lower highs and lower lows printing. NYSE Comp right at 200 DMA reasdy to bust thru. overlay 1987 charts watch out when 200 DMA breaches! long time without a significant correction. Are Diamon and Blakfein short US equities?

    Warren Buffet could simply write a check to Greece so they could pay the IMF but they, Spain Portugal, Italy and Ireland all need to be taught a lesson. Germany won't tolerate their BS. Chicago is next, murder capital of world with the strictest gun laws, stupid unsustainable pension commitments (like Greece)

    Get to Cash. think about buying back in at SPX 1,200.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Bear market is beginning

    by ibdman15 Jun 24, 2015 4:43 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Jun 26, 2015 10:48 PM Flag

    " IBD headline Monday June 29 th. "US Stock Market shifts to Uptrend Under pressure as leaders take beating" wasn't China down 7% last night too? Think of all the newly minted MBA's that that are managing money and have never experienced a bear market like 1929-1932, 1937-1939, 1973-1974, 1987, 1990, 2000-2003 or 2007-2009. They are so screwed with the impending 50% US stock market haircut. Next thing ya know will be the small % of Chinese trading on heavy margin in China market will start trading here, then you will know the end game is near. Perhaps China, Russia, Iran, N Korea, or ISIS/ISIL/USIS Nuke DC first. That would cause a US market decline too.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Bear market is beginning

    by ibdman15 Jun 24, 2015 4:43 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Jun 24, 2015 6:24 PM Flag

    yep you got that right. More often than not a huge stock split (7:1 is huge) of a high flyer's announcement and eventual spilt marks the ALL-TIME high for that stock. In reality the spilt means nothing other than the Institutions are typically bailing while the amateurs are buying. AAPL was an exception since a blue chip that is not over-valued like Netflix and QCOM was in 1999.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Bear market is beginning

    by ibdman15 Jun 24, 2015 4:43 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Jun 24, 2015 6:20 PM Flag

    did ya'll notice that the VIX closed below it's lower Bollinger band yesterday. Could be time for the 20% correction. Last time that occurred was prior to the Sept-Oct 2014 drawdown to SPX 1820 before the FED started commenting to the media that they will do whatever it takes to juice the stock market!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • NFLX 7:1 split....just like QCOM on Dec 31 1999. Facebook surges with higher market Cap higher than WalMart....LOL. Icahn exits NFLX favoring AAPL, Transports plunge over 1.5% to new multi month lows over 10% off 52 week highs, volume accelerates, selloff blamed on Greek worries....how about stock market plunges because more folks are selling than buying stocks, indexes and futures. Ya know Jamie Diamon and Lloyd Blankfein are both heavily short equities and indexes now,

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    this just in folks - well off the highs

    by ibdman15 Jun 22, 2015 3:57 PM
    ibdman15 ibdman15 Jun 22, 2015 4:02 PM Flag

    and bearish daily candles on SPY and NYSE Comp on the greatly diminishing volume. we could gap down 500 at tomorrow's open on the Dow and 60 on the SPX. Be prepared.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • volume way down albeit ops ex on Friday but key is we are below daily VWAP now into the close so average buyer today sitting on a loss.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I'm calling a multi-year equity top today. The financial system is about to come unglued. anyone wonder how the stock market can be at new ALL-TIME highs yet US interest rates remain FIXED at 0% for 7 years with the FED scared to death to raise at all?
    Janet Yellan looks like a Deer in headlights when she speaks. She knows about the multi trillion dollar interest rate backed derivative implosion that is about to occur. The MSFM all have the same narrative on exactly what they are allowed to say on TV, radio or print. The money, hedge fund and mutual fund managers will trip over themselves getting out of this manipulated cluster F'd market.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • sel sell sell, its all over!!!

    But we closed well-off the lows folks. eventually we will be in a 40-50% downtrend. It takes just one or two "Unexpected" events. Like FED raising 1/2 point this week. But John Hilsenwrath over at WSJ already has been told what they are doing and he told Janet and crew what Steve Liseman and the Market expects them to do! You know Jamie Diamon and Lloyd Blankfein are both short the SPY, Q's and IWM right now. they know the market is about to drop 20% or more over a few weeks. .

    The most manipulated equity market ever in the history of the earth. This is unreal.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • But aren't stocks "cheap relative to bonds"? Unfortunately, the evidence suggests exactly the opposite. Indeed, despite a yield to maturity of hardly more than 2% annually, Treasury bonds are still likely to outperform the total return of the S&P 500 over the coming decade. The following chart presents the difference between the estimated 10-year total return of the S&P 500 and the yield-to-maturity on 10-year Treasury bonds, compared with the actual subsequent return of the S&P 500 in excess of 10-year bond yields. We estimate that from current valuations, the S&P 500 will underperform Treasury bonds by more than 2% annually over the coming decade. We've never observed a similar level of stock vs. bond valuations without stocks actually underperforming bonds over the subsequent 10-year period. Next, look at bear market lows such as 2009, 2002, 1990, 1987, 1982, 1978, and 1974, and recognize that the completion of every market cycle in history has provided better investment opportunities, both in absolute terms, and relative to bonds, than are presently available. Frankly, history suggests that a rather ordinary completion to the present market cycle would involve the S&P 500 losing more than half of its value."

    what if there were a "US"IS (as the TX Reverend refers to) or ISIS attack on AAPL HQ's? With AAPL representing the largest component of most every stock market index, that would be devastating. or if they hit at the GS and JPM? Best way for those nuts at USIS/ISIS to attack America is to cause a stock market to crash rather than killing random folks on subways since the Americans and developed world are greedy and only care if the stock market hits news highs every day, month and quarter. Fact is, the stock market is about to crash and burn.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 by ibdman15 Jun 8, 2015 8:40 PM Flag

    Transports, NYSE Comp and Mid Cap 400 looking bad below 50 dma's. Dow theory? Lower highs and lower lows define a downtrend

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I have a question. anyone notice the death cross on the Dow transports and impending death cross on the small caps? could this be the start of a 50% correction/Bear Mkt across the board?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • head 152 neckline 138, target 124 which is the October Lows. Be cautious. CNBC, Federal reserve and ECB are trying so hard to keep the global markets on this sugar high. It will end badly. wait until China shoots down a US Spy plane. notice the declining NYSE volume on today's dead cat bounce.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 by ibdman15 May 26, 2015 6:20 PM Flag

    on IWM, MDY, IBD 50, New America, IBD 85/85, NYSE Comp etc....

    and on volume. Could be THE END of the generational Bull Market and the start of a Generational Bear market with a 75% decline taking the PE's back into the mid to high single digits.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ibdman15 ibdman15 May 18, 2015 4:49 PM Flag

    no everything is awesome. Think of all those $15/hour jobs out there that are unfilled for teenagers and 20 somethings that have 6 year college degrees and still can't get a job at even $10/hour. So the teenagers are upgrading to A/F and Banana Republic (at Urban Outfitters expense) and the weather was too nice to shop and amazon is gaining all kinds of M.S. while losing money every quarter and every year! LOL

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Red Flag per IBD
    Market is about to enter a long Bear phase
    Bears every 3 years on average and this Bull is over 6 years old
    Tobin Q highest since 2000 and 1929
    US market 80% overvalued
    BOA say twilight zone and a cleansing drop in US equity prices is likely
    Record highs again while equity fund outflows in 2015 are $100 B so far.
    Carl Ichan says AAPL to $240....so he can sell all his shares on the way up and yes it has a huge impact on the indexes
    If macro improves, FED increases rates
    if macro stays steady or deteriorates further, EPS/ Sales and GDP continue their steep decent and equities eventually follow. If SPX Sales and earnings drop 10% in next year while the multiple contracts from 19 to 10, the market corrects at least 50% to SPX 1050.
    If AAPL wasn't in the SPX, where would the level be?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

SPY
207.31-0.19(-0.09%)Jul 2 5:04 PMEDT