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idbtc 90 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 24, 2015 12:41 PM Member since: Dec 5, 2007
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  • when to a tile store, manager gave me a list of 30 contractor names on a list that he dealt with who was reasonable. Seems like he was use to coming in here with that sort of request. I wonder how many stores give out names like this. I have no idea why people would pay for this information.

  • Reply to

    Thoughs (an I would like yours)

    by neaghanmester Jul 20, 2015 6:01 PM
    idbtc idbtc Jul 20, 2015 7:53 PM Flag

    Typically, the buyer's pricing would sound out a few big shareholders to gauge their approval for the deal at a certain level before finalizing the deal. I think the big players holding receptos stock, also hold celgene as it is the case with biotech focused funds and for them it is a win win situation as their portfolio in Celgene did really well for the steal that they did in buying Receptos at such a low premium. Perhaps that is why we don't hear any big shareholders complaining, at least not publicly.As I had mentioned before, the loser is really the small investors who only hold Receptos stock and whose voice is not represented. The BOD at Receptos is really to blame as they should be held accountable for accepting low ball offer and not representing all minority shareholders.

  • Reply to

    Most companies try very hard to pump their stocks.

    by jefferyon8 Jul 29, 2015 11:35 PM
    idbtc idbtc Jul 29, 2015 11:52 PM Flag

    it is not unusual for the new comer CEO to throw out as much bad news as possible knowing he probably will have some breathing room as someone who just stepped in, so to wipe the slate clean and set the bar low then make it easier to exceed expectations. Or maybe he is also sinking the stock so it looks more attractive to potential suitors so he can just get out of there.

  • was the CFO essentially the man running the company? don't really get this one. Usually CEO shakeup is the position that makes waves with the stock price, but CFO leaving? for better opportunity 9not like there was fraud in the company) and 6.5% drop over that? doesn't seem right, must be some other stuff going on.

  • idbtc idbtc Aug 22, 2015 12:40 PM Flag

    China is over built to the tilt, they don't need any more commodities and that is why the commodities market are trashed. There are empty cities in China waiting for buyers. Commodity prices will stay low for a long time. The US data is very misleading IMHO, part time jobs, low paying jobs, interim non-benefit paying jobs are what is creating these headline numbers that jobs are coming back. These are low quality jobs. And I find it funny that the Fed keep insisting that low energy prices are a temporary phenomenon and they've saying it for the last 6 months, and still price of oil/commodities are getting lower. So the two main triggers for Fed to raise rates simply aren't there unless they spin it to look like it is rosy out there which is not. Most of the retail stores are getting crushed, except a few places where people constantly flock to, so there are a few winners and a bunch of losers. Net net, retailers are not doing that well. Auto numbers are high because of lower gas, think people can buy a new car every year? and keep those numbers up? no way. The Fed put themselves in the box by saying how well things are and now with the market crashing, they are boxed in and reputation at risk for not doing anything. Yellen Fed doesn't have a handle on things.

  • that is indicative that if this price goes through, celgene got a steal. Celgene moved up like $6 to $7 billion in mkt cap, essentially the whole buyout price of receptos. Celgene got a monster deal for little premium is what the market is saying.

  • Angie's list is just that. A list of contractor names...whoopie doo.. and somehow it is still worth $200 million mkt cap. Their website is nothing more than a glorified message board and any programmer could put up in a few weeks time.

  • Reply to

    Most companies try very hard to pump their stocks.

    by jefferyon8 Jul 29, 2015 11:35 PM
    idbtc idbtc Jul 30, 2015 3:04 AM Flag

    that wouldn't surprise me at all if that is the case as well, with Twitter being known for splashing around shares for compensation, and in this land of IPO galore, these early investors and mgmt holding tons of shares probably got in a $5 bucks and could care less at these levels. Look at Dorsey, he's got Square to IPO and create another billion or two in wealth, so what if Twitter flattens out. But that argument can go for many social media IPOs, and I think Yelp is classic example - CEO holding less than 100,000 shares in that company, he cashed out already and now Yelp is tanking, like he cares?

  • Reply to

    CELG purchase price ...

    by gmrowe Jul 30, 2015 4:41 PM
    idbtc idbtc Jul 30, 2015 7:42 PM Flag

    the headline of article is misleading. The article simply summarizes the info on the public filings - that is all. If you read the filings on the events of celegene pursuing receptos, then the article is fairly useless. They pretty much say that Celgene could've offered a lot less to buy receptos a year ago when receptos was much cheaper. So celgene hesitation costed them to pay this high price. Personally, I think this whole piece is misleading in the sense it is trying to bolster the contention receptos shareholders got a good deal by saying celgene paid a lot more.

  • Reply to

    OPINIONS? Wedbush/Barrons article of today

    by gmrowe Aug 3, 2015 1:00 PM
    idbtc idbtc Aug 3, 2015 3:52 PM Flag

    I find it interesting that Webush's research and target price was ignored by Centerview (Receptos' advisor) when they evaluated the research reports as part of their due diligence on valuing Receptos stock. If anything, the filings suggest what Receptos think of themselves if they considered Webush target price as an outlier (and presumably unrealistic) and other suitors might not feel compelled to overbid if Receptos own advisor is capping the valuation that is no where near 340's. That doesn't mean another suitor won't step in, just unlikely IMHO although the December 240 call open interest is pretty high so maybe...

  • this thing run up 200% based on future fantastic global growth and valuation pie in the sky. Now what with global growth down the toilet? and a PE of 300? this is crazy.

  • what kind of numbskull offer is this? 10% for a stock moving 100% upside per year?? got to be others bidding for this thing. I would hope it doesn't go through at this ridiculous low price. Celegene willing to offer 2x for Juno but 10% for receptos? lol and I have both of them before offers.

  • idbtc idbtc Jul 14, 2015 5:48 PM Flag

    doesnt work that way, it is based on closing price when deal is announced. Who cares about the rumors and the price. If that was the case, every stock will have a rumor on take out price to justify lower offer prices going forward. This is a low ball offer.

  • Reply to

    New Deal for RCPT

    by bio_tech_wiz Jul 16, 2015 11:54 AM
    idbtc idbtc Jul 16, 2015 4:34 PM Flag

    In any deal??? I would agree with your statement if it was "generally speaking" but not in any deal. On this deal, if Receptos shareholders was getting half cash and half stock of Celgene priced at $232, I can pretty much guarantee you that Receptos won't be capped at $232 at this point, for sure it won't. If the deal is underpriced then all cash deal is bad for the seller because you have no upside exposure anymore, but if you get some stock, you essentially swapped positions with the buyer so you still enjoy some upside. If your deal is priced high, all cash deal is best for the seller...etc.. there is some pricing point where cash+shares is better for the seller and vice versa.

  • Reply to

    New Deal for RCPT

    by bio_tech_wiz Jul 16, 2015 11:54 AM
    idbtc idbtc Jul 16, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    that is what I said a few days ago, the market is saying Celgene got a steal. And in this case, all case deal at a steal is worst for receptos shareholders, I mean, I rather now hold some celgene stock to play upside on receptos. The board of directors at Receptos did a bad job on this but unfortunately, unless there is some activist on the shareholder base with large holdings, this might get swept under the rug. There are 3 venture capitalist on the board of directors, these people should know about getting premium returns on investments for their investors, it should be basic demand etc, how they agreed the terminal value for receptos shareholders is only at $232, 10% higher is beyond me. The tons of lawsuits is pretty much par for the course but unless big investors speak up, it is going to hard to stop this deal. The mutual fund holders with Receptos probably have Celgene as well so they get exposure on the Celgene holdings so they are happy, just basically swapping receptos into their holdings in Celgene. But for other small shareholders, we are reamed.

  • Reply to

    New Deal for RCPT

    by bio_tech_wiz Jul 16, 2015 11:54 AM
    idbtc idbtc Jul 16, 2015 3:43 PM Flag

    Celgene is raising $5 billion in debt to help pay for this acquisition. If you are buying someone dirt cheap, as part of the seller, you would want for sure to be on the ownership side still to enjoy the upside of the transaction - that is only logical thinking. So to say all cash is better than stock+cash in this deal is ludicrous. I rather have some stock in Celgene to benefit from Receptos giving the house away. Another bidder could come in, but it appears that Celgene is probably a nice fit given their product focus so Receptos probably found that attractive as well. Still, this underpricing is ridiculous but until someone else steps up or a large shareholder speaks up, it is going to be hard to stop this deal.

  • Reply to

    In the meantime...

    by gmrowe Jul 16, 2015 1:42 PM
    idbtc idbtc Jul 18, 2015 1:57 PM Flag

    this concept of risk free is misplaced here. Risk free is treasury bonds etc This isn't risk free, you can say odds are very good this will, happen, but this isn't risk free. I rather sell the shares and buy the $240 sept call for $1.3, that is less than one percent of the strike price and if a white knight comes in, it should be above $240. And use the proceeds of share sale to buy a basket of good stocks that is likely to be better than a 6.5% gain over the next few months.

  • Reply to

    A one-product company

    by mcosby78 Jul 21, 2015 10:48 PM
    idbtc idbtc Jul 21, 2015 11:44 PM Flag

    well, by that reasoning, Tesla is a one product company and all other car manufacturers are one product companies. Fact is, people need cell phones like they need cars and apple got what they want and with the ecosystem, that chain is hard to break. You have to think of addictive product with a razor blade selling strategy, people always need phone and the upgrade is incremental that makes people fork out full price for every new gimmick. Hey, I'm not even an apple fan but I don't care, I've made a bundle on this stock and i understand how the game is played. This is a dip to buy for longer term, it works 100% of the time on this stock - buy on dips.

  • Reply to

    In the meantime...

    by gmrowe Jul 16, 2015 1:42 PM
    idbtc idbtc Jul 18, 2015 10:39 PM Flag

    that is right, shorten the duration of the holding to one month and that is indeed a pretty good bet. The next few months look like momentum is taking this market higher IMO, looking at google and netflix pop decent earnings, it looks like the market is looking for reasons to go higher and higher so getting a decent return over the next few months are favorable. Earnings next week on some big names should guide the way.

  • that is like, what one third of the market cap by tomorrow if it drops 10%. Tim Cook seem more willing to play the capital market game to use the cash to buy shares if it drops too much.

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