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Sanofi Message Board

idbtc 90 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 24, 2015 12:41 PM Member since: Dec 5, 2007
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  • probably cheaper than 93 average for sure! and less dilution too, might take awhile but they got 10 years to wait....yeah, I know it doesn't work that way.

  • Reply to

    Does deal limit anyone else buying Juno

    by cyoung8404 Jun 30, 2015 3:14 PM
    idbtc idbtc Jun 30, 2015 4:10 PM Flag

    kind of thinking the same, with these two companies tying up, Celgene is probably going to have a board seat or two on Juno's board and have insider track on other fronts as well. Anything can still happen, another company could still make an even bigger bid than Celgene but it would involve Celgene and Juno making that joint decision instead of Juno alone. I think that is where the deflation comes in a bit, where the partnership news with a big boy has been announced so the catalyst now will focus strictly on products than anymore M&A news down the road.

  • keep the speculation going and wait till the price hit $300 before announcing any tie ups with some big boys!

  • and now it is well below that additional cash value, folks are quite skeptical for time being.

  • idbtc idbtc Jul 14, 2015 5:48 PM Flag

    doesnt work that way, it is based on closing price when deal is announced. Who cares about the rumors and the price. If that was the case, every stock will have a rumor on take out price to justify lower offer prices going forward. This is a low ball offer.

  • what kind of numbskull offer is this? 10% for a stock moving 100% upside per year?? got to be others bidding for this thing. I would hope it doesn't go through at this ridiculous low price. Celegene willing to offer 2x for Juno but 10% for receptos? lol and I have both of them before offers.

  • idbtc idbtc Jul 14, 2015 5:53 PM Flag

    10% bid above closing is nothing, so there might be other bids out there, I mean how hard is it for someone to bid 20% above closing and go above celegene so I think your options still have play left, and I hope so.

  • Reply to

    most likely no other offers

    by bavaris7 Jul 14, 2015 5:18 PM
    idbtc idbtc Jul 14, 2015 5:55 PM Flag

    if there were other offers, it would be announced too. They don't just announce the highest offer. It would go like ABC bid $x for it and then Celg bid $y for it... these are market moving events, they have to be announced.

  • Reply to

    most likely no other offers

    by bavaris7 Jul 14, 2015 5:18 PM
    idbtc idbtc Jul 14, 2015 6:02 PM Flag

    maybe, but the way it usually works is there is a go-shop period AFTER the initial offer is announced where receptos (shareholders) could ask for other parties to bid. So the way you describe it is the other way around.

  • that is indicative that if this price goes through, celgene got a steal. Celgene moved up like $6 to $7 billion in mkt cap, essentially the whole buyout price of receptos. Celgene got a monster deal for little premium is what the market is saying.

  • Reply to

    most likely no other offers

    by bavaris7 Jul 14, 2015 5:18 PM
    idbtc idbtc Jul 14, 2015 6:11 PM Flag

    well, chances are there were informal talks on offers to bid like you said, and I mean, everyone from Cramer knew receptos was a candidate and the price action all these months probably indicated insider knowledge on the action placed on receptos. I just hope other offer comes in - but being greedy here :)

  • idbtc idbtc Jul 14, 2015 6:15 PM Flag

    that is good advice, I never thought about that part, where ITM is essentially keeps you in the ball park of buyout prices, at the expense of lower leverage but I think that is worth the tradeoff.

  • where is Valent? they should offer for RCPT given low ball from Celgene. I thought Valent CFO is a deal specialist.

  • Reply to

    New Deal for RCPT

    by bio_tech_wiz Jul 16, 2015 11:54 AM
    idbtc idbtc Jul 16, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    that is what I said a few days ago, the market is saying Celgene got a steal. And in this case, all case deal at a steal is worst for receptos shareholders, I mean, I rather now hold some celgene stock to play upside on receptos. The board of directors at Receptos did a bad job on this but unfortunately, unless there is some activist on the shareholder base with large holdings, this might get swept under the rug. There are 3 venture capitalist on the board of directors, these people should know about getting premium returns on investments for their investors, it should be basic demand etc, how they agreed the terminal value for receptos shareholders is only at $232, 10% higher is beyond me. The tons of lawsuits is pretty much par for the course but unless big investors speak up, it is going to hard to stop this deal. The mutual fund holders with Receptos probably have Celgene as well so they get exposure on the Celgene holdings so they are happy, just basically swapping receptos into their holdings in Celgene. But for other small shareholders, we are reamed.

  • Reply to

    New Deal for RCPT

    by bio_tech_wiz Jul 16, 2015 11:54 AM
    idbtc idbtc Jul 16, 2015 3:43 PM Flag

    Celgene is raising $5 billion in debt to help pay for this acquisition. If you are buying someone dirt cheap, as part of the seller, you would want for sure to be on the ownership side still to enjoy the upside of the transaction - that is only logical thinking. So to say all cash is better than stock+cash in this deal is ludicrous. I rather have some stock in Celgene to benefit from Receptos giving the house away. Another bidder could come in, but it appears that Celgene is probably a nice fit given their product focus so Receptos probably found that attractive as well. Still, this underpricing is ridiculous but until someone else steps up or a large shareholder speaks up, it is going to be hard to stop this deal.

  • Reply to

    New Deal for RCPT

    by bio_tech_wiz Jul 16, 2015 11:54 AM
    idbtc idbtc Jul 16, 2015 4:34 PM Flag

    In any deal??? I would agree with your statement if it was "generally speaking" but not in any deal. On this deal, if Receptos shareholders was getting half cash and half stock of Celgene priced at $232, I can pretty much guarantee you that Receptos won't be capped at $232 at this point, for sure it won't. If the deal is underpriced then all cash deal is bad for the seller because you have no upside exposure anymore, but if you get some stock, you essentially swapped positions with the buyer so you still enjoy some upside. If your deal is priced high, all cash deal is best for the seller...etc.. there is some pricing point where cash+shares is better for the seller and vice versa.

  • Reply to

    Option Trades

    by neaghanmester Jun 22, 2015 7:45 PM
    idbtc idbtc Jul 16, 2015 4:42 PM Flag

    haven't traded options on this name, so are you saying you still seeing activity on strikes above the offer price of $232? I noticed $240 strikes calls are still being bid at $1+? but then again, that probably doesn't offer much odds that a new deal is emerging with higher prices. If it were worth $10 bucks or so, then that might mean something. I could be wrong.

  • Reply to

    Option Trades

    by neaghanmester Jun 22, 2015 7:45 PM
    idbtc idbtc Jul 17, 2015 1:52 PM Flag

    think people selling the stock and buying the options, cheaper to hold options to speculate for another bidder given the options prices have come down since the deal announced.

  • Reply to

    In the meantime...

    by gmrowe Jul 16, 2015 1:42 PM
    idbtc idbtc Jul 18, 2015 1:57 PM Flag

    this concept of risk free is misplaced here. Risk free is treasury bonds etc This isn't risk free, you can say odds are very good this will, happen, but this isn't risk free. I rather sell the shares and buy the $240 sept call for $1.3, that is less than one percent of the strike price and if a white knight comes in, it should be above $240. And use the proceeds of share sale to buy a basket of good stocks that is likely to be better than a 6.5% gain over the next few months.

  • Reply to

    In the meantime...

    by gmrowe Jul 16, 2015 1:42 PM
    idbtc idbtc Jul 18, 2015 10:39 PM Flag

    that is right, shorten the duration of the holding to one month and that is indeed a pretty good bet. The next few months look like momentum is taking this market higher IMO, looking at google and netflix pop decent earnings, it looks like the market is looking for reasons to go higher and higher so getting a decent return over the next few months are favorable. Earnings next week on some big names should guide the way.

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