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Intel Corporation Message Board

ideal_invst 59 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 21, 2014 1:12 AM Member since: May 9, 2011
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  • Reply to

    When is the dividend increase announcement?

    by backbay_bstn Jul 20, 2014 9:05 PM
    ideal_invst ideal_invst Jul 21, 2014 1:12 AM Flag

    I agree. Due to the aggressive buyback, I do expect Intel to increase the dividend to 0.25 per quarter. It is a bit steep (11.1%), but with increasing PC sales due to XP and Windows 7 EOL, reduction in contra revenues over the next few quarters, possibly more design wins for Core M and XMM7260, Intel may be able to handle the increase without too much difficulty. Such dividend increase may also signal increasing confidence on the part of executive management for the next several quarters.

  • From Seeking Alpha (via email)

    Global PC shipments fell only 1.7% Y/Y in Q2 to 74.4M, says IDC. That's much better than the firm's forecast for a 7.1% drop, and smaller than the 4.4% and 5.6% declines respectively seen in Q1 and Q4. Gartner is even more positive, estimating shipments rose 0.1%, thus ending a long string of declines.

    Unsurprisingly (especially given INTC's Q2 guidance hike), IDC thinks business PC upgrades stemming from Microsoft's (MSFT) ending of Win. XP support helped out. But it also says consumer demand was better than expected, with sales of low-end PCs (inc. Chromebooks) improving amid slowing tablet growth.

    Sales in the U.S. and EMEA (two high-ASP regions) rose, while Asia-Pac (exc. Japan) still fell by nearly double digits. IDC now thinks full-year industry growth "could get closer to flat, rather than the May projection of -6%."

    IDC's Q1 share data points to industry leaders gaining at the expense of smaller players: Lenovo (LNVGY) 19.6% share, +270 bps Y/Y. H-P (HPQ) 18.3%, +190 bps. Dell 14%, +180 bps. Acer (ACEIY) 8.2%, -10 bps. Asus (ASUTY) 6.2%, +30 bps. Everyone else 33.6%, -690 bps. HPQ +0.6% AH. Other names with strong PC exposure: AMD, NVDA, MU, STX, WDC, HTCH

  • ideal_invst ideal_invst Jul 2, 2014 5:41 PM Flag

    Alex, no worries...your original point stands, I was just adding a bit of clarification.

  • ideal_invst ideal_invst Jul 2, 2014 5:32 AM Flag

    Alex: I think the author meant the comm chip (LTE-XMM series by Intel) replacing Qualcomm's - there have been other similar rumors to this effect. But I agree with you - by being inaccurate, the author has made the rest of the information suspect and shaky as well.

  • ideal_invst ideal_invst Jun 24, 2014 5:38 PM Flag

    Cool, that would teach the shorts who got in during that period not to try that again :)

  • Chips for server systems are an extremely lucrative business for Intel INTC +1.59%, one that has drawn a crowd of competitors. But some are choosing to pick other battles.

    The latest is Samsung Electronics 005930.SE +1.74%, one of the most prominent makers of mobile phone chips based on technology licensed from ARM Holdings ARM.LN 0.00%. The South Korean company hired a number of server-chip specialists from Advanced Micro Devices AMD -0.82% and other companies, though it never publicly announced plans to try to enter the market.

    But Samsung recently decided to drop the server chip effort and discontinue work being carried out by a team in Milpitas, Calif., a person familiar with the situation said.

    That’s not far from a longtime outpost for Samsung’s chip unit in San Jose, where the company is building a new research and development center.

    “In response to recent changes in the business environment and the emergence of new R&D opportunities, Samsung Semiconductor has refocused some of its R&D efforts,” a spokeswoman for the company said. “The scope of the new campus project will not be affected.”

    Another company leaving the server-chip push to others, at least for the moment, is Nvidia NVDA -0.77%.

    The well-known maker of graphics chips, which developed a line of ARM chips called Tegra that is aimed at tablets and smartphones, used the 2011 Consumer Electronics Show to announce an effort to develop a more powerful offering in an effort called Project Denver. A company blog post at the time said the future product would extend “the range of ARM systems upward to PCs, data center servers, and supercomputers.”

    blogsDOTwsjDOTcom/digits/2014/06/24/samsung-nvidia-shy-away-from-server-chip-battle/

  • Reply to

    Run to $32?

    by intel_fanboy Jun 24, 2014 12:18 PM
    ideal_invst ideal_invst Jun 24, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    Alexander: Would you like to be surprised? I'm sure you will take it.

  • ideal_invst ideal_invst Jun 18, 2014 9:52 AM Flag

    There have been a couple of articles on this. There were some vague indications from Semi-Accurate and a Korean magazine that Samsung may be canceling its own Exynos SoC program.

  • ".....significantly rebound in the second half of 2014...."

    Asus/Jonney Shih have been very successful over the past few quarters, I would definitely give a lot of weight for his forecast.
    =============================================

    The negative impact on PC sales from tablets is decreasing and global PC demand is expected to significantly rebound in the second half of 2014, Jonney Shih, chairman of Asustek Computer said at the company's 2014 shareholders meeting on June 17.

    Consumers buy tablets for entertainment and will buy PCs for work, generating substantial demand for PCs, Shih said.

    As demand for PCs highly overlaps that for smartphones and tablets, Asustek will launch various PCs, smartphones and tablets in 2014, Shih said. Asustek expects revenues from all product lines other than PCs to match or even exceed those from PCs in 2017, Shih indicated.

    Asustek's shareholders, at the meeting, approved a cash dividend per share of NT$19.50 (US$0.65) for 2013.

    digitimesDOTcom/news/a20140617PD207.html

  • ideal_invst ideal_invst Jun 15, 2014 11:09 AM Flag

    Yep, Goldman and Covello know exactly what they are doing - there is no other sensible explanation for their actions.

    As to why they're doing it, perhaps:
    (1) they have been getting tons of revenues from selling covered calls on their Intel holdings
    and want to try to continue this as long as they can
    (2) they have parallel short positions in Intel that they still need to unwind
    (3) it is a coded message to their clients to keep buying Intel...when they change their
    rating to buy, it would be a message to start selling :)

    But these crazy bankers....they are doing God's work...so we are told.

  • ideal_invst ideal_invst Jun 13, 2014 10:57 AM Flag

    Yep, analysts have given a range of 32 to 40 (Jeffries). So 40 is now viewed as possible.

    For this to happen soon:
    - Intel needs to give more positive volume data on PC market surge
    - More x86 Android tablets need to start shipping
    - Intel needs to increase tablet shipment targets ( 40 million)
    - Intel needs to announce one or two large foundry wins

    Otherwise, we may need to wait for a few good smartphone design wins in MWC 2015!

  • Reply to

    This will end very poorly

    by itakebackmyapology Jun 13, 2014 7:35 AM
    ideal_invst ideal_invst Jun 13, 2014 9:14 AM Flag

    "This will end very poorly"

    Absolutely agree.
    This will end very poorly --- for you.

  • Reply to

    #$%$

    by stockjock44 Jun 12, 2014 4:06 PM
    ideal_invst ideal_invst Jun 12, 2014 4:11 PM Flag

    Ha, ha, ha...
    yep, nice "warning"

  • Reply to

    Microsoft Launches 7-inch Tablet

    by wallisweaver Jun 11, 2014 10:39 AM
    ideal_invst ideal_invst Jun 11, 2014 12:34 PM Flag

    Hmmm, I wouldn't go that far. I am going to stay open on a combo of Windows and Android - one of those Asus TA100-type 64-bit detachables. The Transformer V would be a perfect fit - need to see some reviews, shipping date and pricing.

  • Big players have turned overall positive on Intel.

    I think Intel will finish green if the overall market indices are down marginally. Of course, if the market indices pull back a lot, I expect Intel will continue to stay in the red today.

    ===================

    Overall decline from the high on March 14: 52 million shares or 23.5% in 6 weeks.

    Settlement Short Avg Daily Days To
    Date Interest Share Volume Cover

    5/30/2014 170,211,540 24,560,599 6.930268
    .......
    3/14/2014 222,525,143 23,926,936 9.300194

    nasdaqDOTcom/symbol/intc/short-interest#ixzz34KYs2oRK

  • Reply to

    Microsoft Surface Pro 3.

    by paul.ottelini Jun 11, 2014 9:32 AM
    ideal_invst ideal_invst Jun 11, 2014 9:44 AM Flag

    They can call it whatever in their commercials, but consumers are pretty savvy.

    With great detachables coming out from Asus and other OEMs at more reasonable price points, I think Microsoft is in line to write off another billion dollars on this effort. I don't see them getting high volume for Surface.

    Product Development - Fail
    Marketing (who probably did not have any say in the matter) - Fail

  • Overall decline from the high on March 14: 52 million shares or 23.5% in 6 weeks.
    Clear evidence that a lot of shorts are changing their position on Intel.

    Settlement Short Avg Daily Days To
    Date Interest Share Volume Cover

    5/30/2014 170,211,540 24,560,599 6.930268
    5/15/2014 177,732,864 22,402,959 7.933455
    .......
    3/14/2014 222,525,143 23,926,936 9.300194

    nasdaqDOTcom/symbol/intc/short-interest#ixzz34KYs2oRK

  • @FPiednoel: Forgotten fact: #x86 is gaining non negotiable market share on the tablet market, faster than you think.

    @BoB101: @FPiednoel What do you mean by 'non negotiable' ?!

    ‏@FPiednoel: @101BoB101 we offer better performance on less expensive platforms. In the store, intel inside has the eyes of the consumers now.

    @1BoB101: Good ! Now we just need the follow up products so Intel can make a profit, without the BOM cost penalty Intel need to give rebate

    ‏@FPiednoel: @101BoB101 this is fixed in the upcoming platform, we learn fast.

  • Reply to

    And the Nexus 8 Design Winner Is:

    by wallisweaver Jun 10, 2014 12:40 AM
    ideal_invst ideal_invst Jun 10, 2014 11:06 AM Flag

    (Part 3:)

    In any case, this design win will not make money for any of the participants except Google - which doesn't care much about it anyway.

    Moorefield in the Nexus 8 would be great news for Intel and an important step towards better x86 app support. I am really looking forward to Google I/O.

  • Reply to

    And the Nexus 8 Design Winner Is:

    by wallisweaver Jun 10, 2014 12:40 AM
    ideal_invst ideal_invst Jun 10, 2014 10:57 AM Flag

    (Part 2: Yahoo seems to have some algorithm to automatically delete consecutive posts, posting Part 2 again )

    And last but not least we have Qualcomm. I don't think they care much about this in terms of this design win - their designs already run on many tablets and phones so they are very well supported. On the other hand, they don't want Nvidia and especially Intel to win this, so they might be very aggressive in pricing, especially since they have a very competitive cost structure due to their high integration level. Then, again, there's no high end 64 bit design available early enough, so I'd guess this alone would kick Qualcomm out of the race. Google may be sacrificing performance though, since they rarely used the top notch SoCs in their devices - but on the other hand this might be something that cost them sales significantly in the past.

    To me, the logical choice would be to use Intel's Moorefield. Google will get mature 64 bit hardware, a decent LTE modem at supposedly low price and very strong support for the software porting - something that Nvidia and most probably also Qualcomm will not provide to that extent. The only thing standing against Intel as the winner here seems to me that Qualcomm and Google just want to keep Intel out here by force. Qualcomm could offer an LTE modem for Nvidia for a cheap price and Google could select Nividia just to not let Intel grow too strong - something they are not interested in.

    In this context, all the existing rumours make quite some sense and Google may have started to design multiple versions of Nexus 8 in order to finally choose in a late stage (say, Moorefield tablet from Asus, Tegra K1 from HTC). In the end, the decision may depend on how well Nvidia and Qualcomm execute on their 64 bit plans - I do have some doubts with Nvidia here and Qualcomm's original schedule doesn't allow for a decent 64 bit design win for the Nexus 8.

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