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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

idjut_know_nothing 27 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 7, 2016 4:03 PM Member since: Oct 4, 2006
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  • idjut_know_nothing idjut_know_nothing Jun 7, 2016 4:03 PM Flag

    I don't think they have that option -- I believe (without looking it up again) that the money is contractually obligated to pay down the loan until it's completely paid off. At least, that's my memory from my reading of it when it first came out.

    Colin

  • Reply to

    Particulars

    by rosilvernail Jun 3, 2016 9:46 AM
    idjut_know_nothing idjut_know_nothing Jun 3, 2016 10:23 AM Flag

    Spock is quoting from the CLNY press release.

  • idjut_know_nothing idjut_know_nothing May 23, 2016 10:30 AM Flag

    Metuchen --

    I disagree. This sounds to me more like they will be trying to bundle the filters right along with their disinfecting services. I'm not getting a "hey, we'll throw this on our website and see if we get any nibbles" kind of vibe. I could, as usual, be completely wrong, but I'm thinking these may just become part of their standard operation.

    Colin

  • idjut_know_nothing idjut_know_nothing May 23, 2016 10:06 AM Flag

    The specs for the TD 100 say each disinfection cycle uses about a gallon of water, so it's not a high-use item and can probably last the full life-cycle of the filter (rather than needing to be replaced frequently because of high water volumes). I don't know which filter they would use, so I'm assuming a 6-month replacement cycle.

    CS Medical claims, "CS Medical LLC is the leader in developing, manufacturing, and marketing medical devices that are designed to provide high-level disinfection of ultrasound TEE probes." Surely the "leader" has at least 20% of the market, yes? In which case they would have a minimum of 1200 units placed around the country, requiring 2400 filters per year.

    At $100 per filter (maybe less since it's a distribution agreement), that's potentially $240,000 per year from this distributor. It's not huge, but for company this size it could definitely make a difference, especially if there are more clinics, more units per clinic, a greater market share for CS Medical, or a shorter filter lifetime. I could see this turning into $1 million per year or more depending on these unknowns.

    This is a nice step forward.

    Colin

  • idjut_know_nothing idjut_know_nothing May 23, 2016 10:03 AM Flag

    Some initial research: CS Medical says "With over 2 million successful high-level disinfections to date, the TD 100 is the standard for automated reprocessing of TEE and TOE probes in North America..." Their website says they started selling that 10 years ago, so they've averaged 200,000 disinfections per year. It is probably safe to say that they have grown since 2006, so 200,000 per year now is probably low. Since the probe must be disinfected after each use, that means 200,000 TEEs per year, too.

    "TOE is currently used in approximately 5–10% of patients being evaluated in the cardiovascular ultrasound imaging and haemodynamic laboratory." (From the NIH.) Also: "Contaminated TEE probe and the lubricating jelly are the sources of infection.61,62 A properly cleaned probe with glutaral-dehyde can reduce the incidence of post TEE infections."

    There are three clinics in my town (pop. ~ 150,000) and even one in Nacogdoches, TX (a town of ~30,000) so it's probably safe to say that most cities of any size have a clinic for this. (As of 2014, there were around 1500 US cities with at least 25,000 people.)

    With just a little initial research, I think it's fairly safe to say that there is at least one such clinic per 50,000 people in the US (maybe more). Each one would have at least one machine and maybe more.

    (Continued)

  • Reply to

    DRIP cost

    by dar200 May 20, 2016 6:47 AM
    idjut_know_nothing idjut_know_nothing May 21, 2016 8:45 PM Flag

    NRF $12.4678 at E*TRADE. I first saw them this morning; they were not there at the close yesterday.

  • Reply to

    BOD Voting Has Started

    by commonsense2468 May 21, 2016 8:31 AM
    idjut_know_nothing idjut_know_nothing May 21, 2016 8:47 AM Flag

    I voted, too, and followed up with an email to the board castigating them for having the gall to recommend in favor of the compensation plan.

  • idjut_know_nothing by idjut_know_nothing May 20, 2016 9:22 AM Flag

    In spite of not really increasing their revenues, they reiterated CFP by the end of the year. That is, even though there is no visible progress, they have some reason to believe they will make it. I conclude that there is significant invisible progress. (Or they have no idea what they're talking about, but there isn't much use in exploring that possibility.)

    I want to speculate about what they see, then. My favorite guess is that they have significant orders lined up. "As soon as the FDA gives you the green light, we want $10 million worth of filters for the VA," or "Once you get the is dotted and ts crossed on your HDF study, we want two of your units in every Fresenius clinic in the country." Or more modest orders...but I'd rather see something like these... :)

    It could also just be that they *expect* reasonable demand for their new products, sufficient to push them to CFP in unspectacular fashion.

    Other guesses?

    Colin

  • Reply to

    "Acid Reflux"

    by azben43 May 19, 2016 3:36 AM
    idjut_know_nothing idjut_know_nothing May 19, 2016 9:22 AM Flag

    Cars, I'm not sure it's a non-starter. Remember the idea of "EntericSorb" (I think they called it)? The idea was to ingest the beads in some form. I don't know whether that could affect GERD, but they've already indicated that extracorporeal treatment is not the only play in their playbook.

    Colin

  • idjut_know_nothing by idjut_know_nothing May 17, 2016 3:11 PM Flag

    I don't remember the last time the volume was over 100K.

  • Reply to

    Level 2??

    by bollwyvill May 17, 2016 11:09 AM
    idjut_know_nothing idjut_know_nothing May 17, 2016 12:04 PM Flag

    Mike --

    I see 16.7K on the bid at $0.25 and 7K on the ask at $0.2799 (I'm a little embarrassed to admit that I bought some yesterday at that price...).

    Colin

  • Reply to

    Level 2??

    by bollwyvill May 17, 2016 11:09 AM
    idjut_know_nothing idjut_know_nothing May 17, 2016 11:44 AM Flag

    I'm not sure what the question is, bollwyvill. Significant volume, relatively speaking (will we clear 100K today?), most trades of respectable sizes. No 100-share trades as yet. A couple of larger blocks: 21K at $0.26, 14.6K at $0.26, 10.3K at $0.26... Two 3500-share blocks at $0.2749., and a few 2000- or 2500-share blocks at various prices. Most of the volume has been at $0.26. The most recent trade was 2000 at $0.2501.

    Does that address what you were interested in?

    Colin

  • Reply to

    Now we wait...again

    by parmentiersteve May 12, 2016 1:46 PM
    idjut_know_nothing idjut_know_nothing May 13, 2016 9:13 AM Flag

    Well...the reason we were "down" to 27 cents is that the B/A spread is so huge. A couple of hundred shares made that apparent difference, but it's actually quite meaningless. We really didn't move at all.

  • Reply to

    Wow

    by oosetrain760 May 12, 2016 2:17 AM
    idjut_know_nothing idjut_know_nothing May 12, 2016 9:32 AM Flag

    Well, as far as 2, they haven't usually given guidance, so that probably doesn't signal too much (although we might expect them to trumpet it if it's fantastic...). But they reiterated CFP by the end of the year, so they seem to have some idea that something is coming.

    They cut the cash burn, but the revenues were about the same *and* their operating expenses were about the same. So what made the difference in the burn? Sales to LP? If so, that's less encouraging (and not sustainable), but it serves its purpose: buying them more time to ramp sales.

    Colin

  • idjut_know_nothing idjut_know_nothing May 11, 2016 4:30 PM Flag

    Metuchen --

    I don't think that's quite right. I think the filings are just indicating that it is now legal for LP to sell whatever we sell them. We didn't actually sell them anything here.

    "We are not selling any securities under this prospectus and will not receive any of the proceeds from the sale of shares by the selling stockholder."

    "This prospectus relates to the offer and sale of up to 5,150,000 shares of common stock, par value $0.001, of Nephros, Inc., a Delaware corporation, ***by Lincoln Park Capital Fund, LLC,*** or Lincoln Park or the selling stockholder." (My emphasis.)

    More puzzling is the other filing: 19 shareholders are collectively selling a couple of million shares. Why?

    I see that the quarterly report has just been filed. Time to check it out.

    Colin

  • idjut_know_nothing by idjut_know_nothing Apr 28, 2016 10:30 AM Flag

    Per the agreement with Lincoln park, we need a day on which NEPH does not trade below $0.35 in order for them to sell shares to LP. But then the price is a trailing (12-day?) average, which is not great in terms of accumulating cash...

    And as I was typing, someone sold a bunch, and the bid and ask are both below $0.35 now...so it doesn't look like today is the day anyway.

    Colin

  • Reply to

    Only half of the action was BS ZAM CR@P

    by metuchen1969 Apr 26, 2016 6:09 PM
    idjut_know_nothing idjut_know_nothing Apr 27, 2016 4:49 PM Flag

    5000 at 0.35
    2500 at 0.35
    3000 at 0.37
    2000 at 0.37

    All in the last three minutes of trading.

    Colin

  • Reply to

    0.40 was a resistance

    by luckyman.1004 Apr 26, 2016 11:51 AM
    idjut_know_nothing idjut_know_nothing Apr 26, 2016 12:12 PM Flag

    No; it was

    3900 at 0.40
    100 at 0.40
    100 at 0.555
    200 at 0.40

    (in that order).

    Colin

  • Reply to

    For Anyone Who's Interested

    by oosetrain760 Apr 25, 2016 10:07 AM
    idjut_know_nothing idjut_know_nothing Apr 26, 2016 11:03 AM Flag

    I can type them in reverse order from my screen, but I can't seem to copy them. But I can say that I was watching level 2 (there was actually something to watch there this morning!) and once a big trade cleared out 0.40 and a smaller one cleared out 0.43, there was nothing between that at the 0.57. Here are the trades in reverse order:

    0.57 200
    0.40 226 (weird!)
    0.43 1600
    0.40 15550 (that's the "big" one)
    0.40 500
    0.40 400
    0.40 3500
    0.40 800
    0.38 1600
    0.40 3000
    0.40 5000
    0.38 2485
    0.38 800
    0.38 150
    0.38 1500
    0.38 300
    0.36 990
    0.36 2500
    0.35 500
    0.35 500
    0.33 1000
    0.33 1000
    0.33 975
    0.36 700
    0.35 2490
    0.35 2500
    0.35 4990
    0.35 5000
    0.35 2195
    0.345 2800
    0.34 2500
    0.34 500

    Those are hand-entered, not copied and pasted, so there may be errors. But I think it's pretty much accurate for the day's activity up to 10:26:24 (and now it's after 11, so it's quieted down...).

    Colin

  • Reply to

    For Anyone Who's Interested

    by oosetrain760 Apr 25, 2016 10:07 AM
    idjut_know_nothing idjut_know_nothing Apr 26, 2016 10:42 AM Flag

    Yeah, the $0.57 is on the bogus side so far -- 200 shares put it there, and the spread is 17 cents ...now 16 with the ask at $0.56. It still looks pretty for now. :)

AGNC
19.49+0.20(+1.04%)Jun 24 4:00 PMEDT