(175,000 patients)*(3 tmts/wk)*(52wks/yr)*($10/tmt/patient) = $273,000,000. Divide that by 50 million shares, give it a 50% margin, and apply a PE of 50...
$136.50/share. Of course, if the filters are more than $10 each...
You know, I guess I'd take $100 per share right now. ;)
I actually had to go away from my computer for a while in the middle of the previous post, so I forgot that I had started off with "rosiest."
I'm going to aim for a max also. My calculations below are based on the rosiest assumptions I could come up with.
Military: since we're looking to max out, let's say Nephros gets it all: $15 million per year (for three years).
Recreational: Once the military buys in, their field filters will have much greater visibility. This could potentially be an enormous market if they become well known. Let's say they can sell 100,000 of these per year. They go for around $100, so that's another $10 million per year.
Hospital water: A solid penetration into this market would be worth a lot, too. Say 100 two-hundred bed hospitals adopt Nephros products for sinks and showers. Pulling a number out of the air, I'll say that corresponds to 100 sinks and 100 showers. If they change quarterly, that's 120K units per year (two per sink and one per shower). Again at about $100 each, that's $12 million annually.
Dialysis: Let's stick to DaVita and use Oose's 10% number. At 45,000 treatments per week, that's 2.34M per year. At $10 per filter, we're looking at $23 million more. I have no idea how to value the machines, so I will ignore that.
Near term total: $60 Million per year in sales. At a 30% margin (net), that's $18 million per year in profit. If Bellco can contribute $2 million per year, we have a profit of $20 million per year. At a PE of 40 (about typical for the healthcare equipment sector), that's an 800 million dollar company. Throw in a premium for acquiring it, and it's about a billion.
Finally, using 50 million shares when all is said and done, that's $20/share.
The funny thing is, if things fall Nephros' way, that's not at all ludicrous. The debate I think we're having now is whether there is any value in anything besides dialysis.
Well, that was fun. I should have pleasant dreams tonight.
The indications -- which I admit are somewhat spotty -- are that the Army *will* award a contract to someone sometime. Nephros' filter is a good one, and they are "in the competitive range," so it doesn't seem implausible to me that they could get a significant chunk of that contract.
And I can't agree that the hospital filters are junk. We know that a baby died, but we don't know that it was "caused" by the filter. We don't know what kind of abuse the filter took before failing, and we don't know what other issues were present that had nothing to do with the filter.
Now they have the 510(k) in for medical uses, and if that gets approved, they should be able to pick up where they left off, more or less. I think it's a little too soon to write off that very large market segment. It also wouldn't be wise to count on it, but I think "junk" is much too strong.
From the DaVita website:
"As of June 30, 2014, DaVita Kidney Care operated or provided administrative services at 2,119 outpatient dialysis centers located in the United States serving approximately 168,000 patients."
The National Kidney Foundation says, "Usually, each hemodialysis treatment lasts about four hours and is done three times per week." I would guess that HDF is the same.
Each clinic then sees about 80 patients per week, three times each. That's 240 treatments per week, or 48 per day. They do run some patients overnight that take 6-8 hours, so let's say each clinic runs 40 "standard" four-hour treatments per day. That would take twenty separate "rooms" if their normal operating hours constitute an 8-hour day (ignoring prep time between patients).
For your 10% figure, that means two rooms set up at each clinic with the Nephros gear. I think it's pretty reasonable that they might want to have this option available at all of their clinics, so buying one or two per clinic is pretty reasonable. That puts it right at your 3000 figure.
Unfortunately, I couldn't see how many of those 2119 clinics they actually operate versus only providing "administrative services," so they might not have the ability to place OLPurs in all 2119.
Nevertheless, a few thousand machines to DaVita is not out of the question.
The training/advertising point is a great one. I think you have made it before, but I had forgotten that aspect. It's quite true they can't just say go and expect things to work. Thanks for posting.
I've wondered that, too. This isn't an FDA trial where they *must* meet certain criteria; they just want a sense of the benefit, and they already expect solid benefits because they do HDF overseas. I think they just want to make sure mid-dilution does at least as well as post-dilution.
On the other hand, Davita probably isn't in a great hurry, so they may well carry out their trial to the letter just so the person deciding has his or her heinie covered. It also may be that they want some minimum number of treatments and gave their six-month timeline based on estimates like yours. "Well, at 5 or 6 patients per week, we can get about 500 treatments in six months, so let's go six months."
It also isn't clear to me what criteria they are using to choose who gets the treatment, so I don't know how to estimate the number of patients per week.
As to your second point, I'm not persuaded Nephros would issue a separate PR even if they added another dozen clinics.
What I see on EDGAR is an "initial statement of beneficial ownership of securities" dated 5/16/14. On the same day, Nephros granted Mr. Rosenberg stock options for 48,864 more shares at $0.79. One third vested immediately, and the other two thirds vest one year and two years from the grant date.
Mr. Rosenberg joined the board in May 2014, so he didn't need to file before then. I don't think we know (or can know?) when he bought his shares.
I definitely want the Army contract for Nephros, but if it's pushed off to 2015, so be it. Right now, the focus is really on Davita and the 510K submission. I wouldn't panic sell on the basis of a one-year delay.
The Army contract would remove all question of survival for the company, but I -- and most of us here, I assume -- believe they will make it even without that. The excitement and concern stem from the fact that the Army contract changes the company overnight from a question mark to a success.
I'm not sure Nephros would have to tell us about the Army's change in timeline since, as far as I can recall, Nephros never told us anything about the original timeline. They are waiting just like we are. They have only told us they are still in the competition.
PS -- I'm still long -- longer than I would be if I were more prudent.
I was thinking along similar lines as I was driving home. If they would throw Nephros (and Cascade, I suppose) a bone in the form of a few thousand units for further "testing," that could make all the difference. How much of that $5M for FY14 has been spent on this program? I haven't done that digging, but I'd be curious to know how much is left at this point.
This just gets more and more bizarre. They've allegedly been conducting the LUE for over a year already. Do they really need to do more? And didn't the lab testing already happen long before all of this?
I also saw "IWTD transition to S60" in BA4.
Right; I just asked for clarification on the timeline and pointed out the apparent discrepancy between the "best and final" request and 4Q15 . I don't want to be a nuisance to him or put him in the position of having to field an inappropriate question.
What I'm hoping for is either something like what Billy suggested or an "Oops! That didn't belong in 4Q 15!" But I'm not expecting much in the way of elaboration.
I just got off the phone with Mr. Buchanan, who, interestingly, said that he would rather reply by email. I told him I had sent one, and he tracked it down and said he would reply to it. I suspect he is about to head out for the day, so it may yet be a while before I hear back. I will update the board when I get a response.
Assuming that our investment thesis is correct, that is only a short-term effect. I have no problem letting the price decline before buying because I don't really need any more shares than I have. (I suspect that is true of a lot of us.) But most of these day-to-day fluctuations are ignorable. This isn't very close to its potential yet, so everything happening right now is just noise to me. If and when the major news hits, these few cents will be completely meaningless.
This way, we can find out which of us the gods hate more. If they hate me more, it will tank; if they hate you more, it will rocket. :)
I caved today, too, and bought more NEPH at $0.99, replacing the bit I had sold at $1.05. I strongly suspect it will be going lower, but I wanted a few more shares to make me eligible for more in the anticipated RO.
Feeling foolish, but there it is.
I just sent an email to Mr. Buchanan requesting clarification of the timeline. I will post if I hear back from him.
I think it's a Bugs Bunny reference. He always said, "What a maroon!"
Ah, my misspent youth.
Yahoo! doesn't like links, but in the article "NW BIO CORRECTS ONGOING FALSE CLAIMS BY FEUERSTEIN ABOUT PHASE III TRIAL OF DCVAX®-L, AND INTERIM ANALYSIS" on the Yahoo! NWBO page, that quote appears in the second paragraph after the bullet points and company logo. That will give you the full context so you can see how everything fits together.