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Amgen, Inc. (AMGN) Message Board

igmos00 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 23, 2014 11:23 AM Member since: Jul 10, 2008
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  • Maybe gdp. The market is not handling this situation efficiently. There is nothing the Saudis can do to stop the US consumer from guzzling oil once their pockets stop feeling the pinch due to the good economy and the oil price is low. The Saudis are NOT doing a good job of stabilizing price. We are now clearly sowing the seeds for another price spike unless the brains behind market movement appreciate that the Saudis are not in a position to grow production for China and the US combined. The chinese will begin to hoard oil and the the US consumer will take care of the rest.

  • They have room to raise and the decrease in oil prices will do more than enough to stimulate the economy. When oil prices start going up again they can decrease the interest rates again. IMO should tie monetary policy to the price of oil. The economy will NOT overheat with oil at 100$ no matter what. And the fed should not worry about that happening. Hopefully they are not living in the past but they probably are.

  • igmos00 by igmos00 Nov 29, 2014 4:25 PM Flag

    Some other poster seem skeptical about producers shifting back to NG. I will give one example. CNQ is decreasing heavy oil spending by 10%, decreasing light oil by something like 30% if I remember correctly, and actually INCREASING NG spending in the teens I believe. Hence rebalancing will put additional pressure on NG. Just my opinion

  • But they haven't decided that way because they are simply clever but not sensible. But the truth is that price stability is both easily attainable and the BEST FOR EVERYONE. Yes, it really IS that simple.

    But OPEC wants to make it complicated. I suspect republicans will allow exports when they take control of congress but that is still some time off. So domestic will be pressured for some time.

    Hopefully Europe will play ball with Russia in exchange for their cooperation on Ukraine. There really is no benefit to adding more pressure on Russia. The market is already doing it for them.

  • Reply to

    Very good reason to sell NG

    by igmos00 Nov 28, 2014 1:00 PM
    igmos00 igmos00 Nov 28, 2014 2:39 PM Flag

    Not a lot harder than that, no. Many have NG properties and it looks like the prices for rigs will be coming down so there is every incentive to rearrange your resources hoping to balance out production and adopt a flexible strategy.

  • The oil weighted cos can always focus on NG as well so they will switch and pressure the NG cos

  • Saudi Arabia is exaggerating the effect of shale oil in the future demand for their oil. However political wheels move slowly so Hamm's move may well be premature. He should have waited for meaningful exports of US oil before taking the hedges off imo.

  • So the first reaction will be to dump everything but the thing is the hike others part. The second reaction is to say that Saudi Arabia is living in the past. They really don't know what they are doing. It will cause problems if they don't get that at this point they should not be vying for market share in oil. Perhaps they should try that in gas, that may still make sense since the gas supplies are ample -- but not oil. In addition I cannot imagine that this sort of power play will sit well with their asian customers.

    The saudis need to be thinking about what is next for them and they should be focusing on gas instead of playing short term games with wti vs brent.

  • The US fracking industry will have a muted consequence for Brent because political hurdles prevent export of Us crude and refineries need a blend so they must continue to import. So one could possibly argue that the US market could continue to be challenged but OIH contains international exposure.

  • I have been generally supportive of this firm but their communications on the price of oil are becoming very annoying. It is NOT reasonable to issue short term alerts and the come back years laters and wistfully call for price superspikes. The price superspikes take place because of short term thinking of the sort GS has been indulging on. Price erosion is just not going to happen for the simple reason that all of the oil plays in the US are already accounted for, which is why HK is having such a hard breaking a new one.

    Any fair minded reading of the situation indicates that offshore will be needed in the not too distant future so talking of oil price erosion and then coming back and warning of a spike is to put euphemistically unhelpful.

  • igmos00 igmos00 Oct 14, 2014 12:08 PM Flag

    The simple reason is that market is not that dumb. They will figure out that the next wave has to come from offshore and there is no way that can happen if the investment drops off a cliff for 2 years. The oil price should not be set by geopolitics.

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