WCS discount to WTI exited Q2 at -23, exited Q3 at -26, dropped as low as -34, and now stands at -29 for the jan 2014 contract. I would say that is an opening spread as far as Q3/Q4 earnings comparisons go.
At 100,000 B/D of crude, 5$/bbl gets you half a million dollars margin a day, or 45M$ per quarter. For HFC with 200MM shares, that would be about $0.20 after tax on quarterly earnings. enough to move the needle. especially when crack spreads are also going the right direction, along with RINS cost.