WCS discount to WTI exited Q2 at -23, exited Q3 at -26, dropped as low as -34, and now stands at -29 for the jan 2014 contract. I would say that is an opening spread as far as Q3/Q4 earnings comparisons go.
At 100,000 B/D of crude, 5$/bbl gets you half a million dollars margin a day, or 45M$ per quarter. For HFC with 200MM shares, that would be about $0.20 after tax on quarterly earnings. enough to move the needle. especially when crack spreads are also going the right direction, along with RINS cost.
i wonder about all the experienced shorters, that were holding 30% of the float short. How they liking life right now?
amazing. they spend a gazillion dollars ( CAD) and they cant get more than 4 MB/d production from Kearl. Exxon, is amazing.
never sell out too early when there is a short squeeze in progress. this thing may overshoot way on the high side before we come back to reality. The majors are at break even and WNR is still making $25/bbl.
Time to post another special dividend to show how much cash this thing is generating.
Pick at fat amount of cash, and throw off everything above that every quarter!!
you cant use logic to argue politics with an envirnomentalist single issue voter. same for ( abortion, union rights, secure borders, etc.) obama has a real problem. He needs to approve the pipeline on a long weekend when all the reporters and pundits have been thrown several large bones to be chewing on instead.
Valero announced that the new EPA rule on Mogas S is going to cost them lots of capital and huge ongoing operating costs.
Which is totally bogus. Even if it did, there is not going to be a comparitive disadvantage to other refiners.
And they will find some way to ship the high S stocks into export gasoline which they want to do anyway. And that will decrease inventory and raise margins. This is a huge buying opportunity.
the current write down is only about $0.10/share. not a big deal, and will get lost in Q1 earnings upward surprise. No major operational problems in Q1 and product realizations have been high.
they are saying April is looking like a normal March. That means we sell more in the Spring Qtr. and maybe the earnings estimates are about to be updated to show both more heating degree days plus impact of record low purchase price of C3.
i bought may calls @40 after the announcement. it will have all washed out by then. cant believe the price i was able to get.
OK, so those are the trends. You seem to understand it perfectly, and youre not being paid to analyize it. Either they start getting it right, and raise the estimates, or the market figures it out and starts place a rational PE ratio on the actual earnings potential. i can easily see a 9 PE on $10/share 2013/2014 earnings. that is a 90 pps if i did the math right.