Great discussion Burn, as always. Thank you for your analysis. I decided to gamble a bit yesterday. I have my core holding still but added a gamble on Friday, 70 May 13 Calls at $10.50 It was cheap, adding some $10 Calls on Monday if they reach .25 All in I believe my risk to be $2K, so not life shattering if I lose it. One reason for the gamble is that it seems many are down on OPK, assuming the worst, this includes revenue estimates, there is possibility of a pop.
I can't agree that Dorsey is a mess. That has yet to be seen. Personally I have never seen the point of Twitter except as a curiosity, where Square to me is transformative. Even the old Square Card Reader is not what excites me, the Contactless + Chip reader is where it is at IMO. I bet that these new readers cost $10 to $15 to get made and into the warehouse, then they charge $49. Even if they only made $10 in profit on 350,000 of these that would be 3,500,000. Lastly, I equate Square with a Pharma that has just released a good drug. They are adding to revenue quickly. At this point we do not have to wait for any NDAs or FDA decisions, the game is on.
This is just a bunch of emotional noise; just because Twitter is #$%$ does not mean that Square is.
I am guessing it is possible.
Reality check? I focus on trusting Dr Frost and management's assertion that this delay will not change Rayaldee being sold the third quarter of this year. Manufacturing not being halted makes me believe that this will happen. As far as I can remember, Dr Frost and company have never lied or exaggerated to us, he is a realist.
I for one think that Oku has somewhat of a point, this drug is needed very badly by many. It can help perhaps millions. It should have been fast tracked since no drug does what it does, there is a huge need and NO side effects. Respectfully I believe that the FDA should get this done ASAP for the people who need it.
Math really isn't their thing Hellbent! They can't try to bug the #$%$ out of others with actual logic.
Trust me C L, you are long OPK, I know that you are smart, glad you post... The above was just my prediction, like seeing if I can predict, mostly fail short-term but it entertains me anyway.
C L, Our enemy does not like you reading their minds.
My thoughts are that since the shorts are not gone, we have a delay on Rayaldee plus possible issues with regards to when approval will be given that the shorts will use the next five weeks until earnings to move OPKO around. That is my guess. Why wouldn't they, they have done it before and their motivations are high now due to OPKO growing several aspects of the company.
Good luck with your trades longs, I am on the other side of things, betting tha the crisis of confidence in this evil company will crush it under the weight of its own debt burden. Why? Everyone is now knocking on the door asking for their cash, where before they would wait. A second why... Every payer is questioning what they have to pay this company since VRX is in a corner.
May I ask if you are saying that it may be months before the Rayaldee is even resubmitted? They have to wait until the corrective actions are approved, then taken, then a reinspection and then the new NDA (if I remember correctly). The new NDA could take between two and six months itself. My point, it could be November / December before the new PDUFA date is even here. What a bummer.
Dr Frost is big on relationships, he won't want to pound on the manufacturer, but if I were to guess this situation will get him something. Whether that means that the manufacturer needs to throw as much money as needed at this or that they have to increase ramp up production regardless of their estimated demand. One thing for certain, he is not saying "Okay, just take care of it." They had their chance and this is now egg on the manufacturer's face.
I am happy about it, that it got approval. Happy also about the fact that there is pressure on the manufacturer to improve / prove themselves. If they can't get their butts in gear now OPKO has grounds to terminate them and move on to another manufacturer. Lastly, with approval it would be great for a large Pharma as "part" of a deal to sell in Europe to say that they will be the manufacturer of Rayaldee.