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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

illuminati.investments 31 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 26, 2015 11:39 AM Member since: Apr 13, 2012
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  • Reply to

    OT Politics OT

    by rogluther Jan 23, 2015 1:49 PM
    illuminati.investments illuminati.investments Jan 26, 2015 11:39 AM Flag

    To quote Babe Ruth, Hamo deserves to be paid more than the pres because "had a better year".

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bottom

    by glb1943 Dec 13, 2014 1:15 AM
    illuminati.investments illuminati.investments Jan 19, 2015 5:25 PM Flag

    I think he means "I'm going to start nibbling soon" comma "2 yrs. from now I think we will see a different scenario", which I happen to agree with although it might not even take that long to realize ATW's in decent shape but still priced for disaster.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    OT - pretty nasty

    by saacoo3 Jan 13, 2015 2:21 PM
    illuminati.investments illuminati.investments Jan 13, 2015 4:16 PM Flag

    Everyone was saying that a year and 30% ago too on the same fears of rising interest rates.

    I get that the risks are elevated from these elevated levels, but the high valuation of REITs in general does not mean NRF is similarly overvalued, if it was then it would be yielding 6% and trading at $25+

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Thoughts? Comments? Suggestions?

    by ironjinman Dec 11, 2014 1:10 AM
    illuminati.investments illuminati.investments Dec 12, 2014 10:58 AM Flag

    Good summary, that's how I see the situation playing out as well. Management just seems to be dragging their feet in getting the last steps of the permitting done, not sure if that's strategic so they can keep their jobs a bit longer and wait for a better gold price environment to sell out in, or just continued incompetence.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Very Postive Article

    by alexonthebeach Dec 9, 2014 12:48 PM
    illuminati.investments illuminati.investments Dec 11, 2014 5:59 PM Flag

    He forgot about the B shares, so actual cash per share is closer to $10.

    Still, trading under that so probably still a good deal for a profitable company.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    What's Going On?

    by ilook4u75 Dec 11, 2014 11:21 AM
    illuminati.investments illuminati.investments Dec 11, 2014 2:31 PM Flag

    Also lightening up today, selling the shares that I repurchased with the special dividend, obviously I should have just taken it in cash instead and saved some commissions.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Griffin merger vote ?

    by pcs.jr56 Dec 1, 2014 10:28 AM
    illuminati.investments illuminati.investments Dec 11, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    Good comments by you as well, but I didn't see any related to dar and these message boards. Wonder if SA censored it, since god forbid we get investment advice from anywhere else.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Griffin merger vote ?

    by pcs.jr56 Dec 1, 2014 10:28 AM
    illuminati.investments illuminati.investments Dec 10, 2014 6:16 PM Flag

    Dar, do you mind if I refer people to your expertise here and on the IV boards?

    Not sure if you saw it, but there was an admittedly rather superficial NRF article on your (least) favorite investing website, Seeking Alpha.

    I was just going to suggest to people there to come over here instead to be enlightened by you.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Predictions 2nd. Attempt

    by rogluther Dec 6, 2014 7:00 PM
    illuminati.investments illuminati.investments Dec 10, 2014 6:12 PM Flag

    I predict I will receive at least $1.60 in growing dividends from NRF, and if the market ever gives them credit for this, then NRF should be well over $20, especially if they spin of the mortage portfolio to remove the last vestiges that they are somehow a sketchy mREIT that deserves a 9+% yield. All the other macroeconomic predictions are an excercise in futility, as evidenced by your admitted geopolitical caveat.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    OFF TOPIC-----age quiz

    by dar200 Dec 9, 2014 3:31 PM
    illuminati.investments illuminati.investments Dec 10, 2014 6:01 PM Flag

    Dire Straits? Or would that just be a bad pun?

    Either way, I'll take my 9% "Money For Nothing" from NRF.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    oh whoa is me

    by limerick523 Nov 16, 2014 1:36 PM
    illuminati.investments illuminati.investments Dec 10, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    Somehow sold my LIWA for 4 cents yesterday for tax loss purposes, should I double down again now that it's half price?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    NSAM 2015

    by dar200 Nov 14, 2014 9:16 AM
    illuminati.investments illuminati.investments Nov 18, 2014 5:22 PM Flag

    Gotch#$%$, it's in the e#$%$rnings press rele#$%$se, not the 10Q where I w#$%$s looking. Seems they directly invest in other p#$%$rtnerships like AHI #$%$nd Isl#$%$nd Hospit#$%$lity, where they #$%$lso get #$%$ cut of the m#$%$n#$%$gement fees gener#$%$ted by those #$%$nd subsequent de#$%$ls. Pretty sweet, th#$%$nks!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Mini breakout for nsam

    by dar200 Nov 18, 2014 2:11 PM
    illuminati.investments illuminati.investments Nov 18, 2014 4:56 PM Flag

    Plus Einhorn est#$%$blished #$%$ position, so th#$%$t might #$%$lso get it some more #$%$ttention. He's one of my investing idols (#$%$long with you#$%$, so I'm now kicking myself th#$%$t I didn't listen to you to h#$%$ve p#$%$tience with NSAM #$%$nd stupidly sold some $20 covered c#$%$lls on #$%$ portion of my sh#$%$res, especi#$%$lly since it seems to be spiking #$%$bove 22.50 #$%$fter hours tod#$%$y for some re#$%$son.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • illuminati.investments illuminati.investments Nov 18, 2014 2:16 PM Flag

    Except that it kind of confirms that the property is worthless in this gold price environment, so they might have to take an impairment charge against it. Good news is it's only carried on the books at $1 million so it probably won#$%$ be that bad.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    49 cents coming

    by t_baroi Nov 15, 2014 8:54 PM
    illuminati.investments illuminati.investments Nov 18, 2014 2:10 PM Flag

    Maybe if gold continues to rebound, but I'm thinking tax loss selling is more likely.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • illuminati.investments by illuminati.investments Nov 18, 2014 1:52 PM Flag

    One of my investing idols, David Einhorn, recently established a position in NSAM. Now regretting my decision to sell $20 covered calls on some of my shares, since like him I am starting to realize just what a cash machine this is.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    NSAM 2015

    by dar200 Nov 14, 2014 9:16 AM
    illuminati.investments illuminati.investments Nov 18, 2014 1:47 PM Flag

    Some stupid NSAM questions, but I will bear dar's wrath at my admitted laziness in the interest of learning:

    1. NSAM is NOT a REIT, right?
    2. If they don't have to pay out 90% of CAD, what happens to all that cash?
    3. Does it start building up on the balance sheet as retained earnings that they can later pay out or use for buybacks?
    4. Or do they reinvest some of their own cash into additional deals that are not funded by NRF of the other non-traded REITs they manage?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Half-a-tea leaf

    by dar200 Nov 18, 2014 9:14 AM
    illuminati.investments illuminati.investments Nov 18, 2014 1:34 PM Flag

    Do they only get the performance going forward from the date of closing, or from the time they first signed the deal?

    If so, any possible adverse effects from the brief (and hopefully mostly over) Ebola scare?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Thanks to Dar and everyone else on this board

    by reisenberg Nov 18, 2014 9:49 AM
    illuminati.investments illuminati.investments Nov 18, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    As a fellow recent father, I can't even imagine what you're going through, but I wish you the best in your recovery. Stay strong for them and everything will work out since they are the best possible incentive to beat cancer.

    I know it's a small gesture, but I am doing "No-shave November" to raise money for the American Cancer Society, so I encourage the rest of you to participate or contribute towards beating this disease.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    oh whoa is me

    by limerick523 Nov 16, 2014 1:36 PM
    illuminati.investments illuminati.investments Nov 18, 2014 1:07 PM Flag

    I hear ya, lost about half that amount and the last time I bought shares was just outside the window to join the lawsuit, which is probably hopeless anyway.

    Oh well, just time to take the tax loss and learn the valuable lesson not to trust Chinese companies that are too good to be true.

    Sentiment: Sell

FNHC
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