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Infinera Corporation Message Board

iluvglw 16 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 3, 2014 11:05 AM Member since: Feb 1, 2011
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  • iluvglw iluvglw Jul 3, 2014 11:05 AM Flag

    No, David Welch is no dummy. He's got a great gig. Go around and make a few speeches and collect your $0 options. In Q2 he sold 90,000 shares. Most were around $9 so over 3/4 of a million for 1 Q. He gets a salary too. I have no problem with the rank and file engineers getting paid but Infinera is well past the stage where they should be compensating a former founder and current speech giver at this level. BTW, this is not a comment about Welch as a person. Based on his Wiki page, he's obviously a great guy and I agree with his focus on education but too many tech companies give out options like bubble gum.

  • Reply to

    Google launches airborne assault on Yakima

    by byronangel Jun 4, 2014 10:53 AM
    iluvglw iluvglw Jun 4, 2014 1:48 PM Flag

    I don't see the material impact. You know what the revenues have been. You even have forward guidance on what the revenues will be. Google has been a customer for Infinera. They bought the DTN. It didn't make Infinera a successful company. The problem is the industry. 100G ports now sell for less than I remember 10G ports selling for not that many years ago. Byron can post all the "the sun will come up tomorrow and this will be good for Infinera posts he wants" and it won't help Infinera. But I can tell you that Google uses at least Infinera, NSN (now coriant) and ALU. It's not public. It's well known that Google does not disclose suppliers (and if you want to do business with them, you better keep your mouth shut). It's also well known that they have a religious zeal for taking cost out of their operation. (They build their own servers)

  • iluvglw iluvglw May 13, 2014 6:39 PM Flag

    This is somewhat more complex than the discussion indicates. In an office there is a mix of different types of switching both optical and electrical. In most large offices you'll have at least a degree 2 ROADM. This handles 80/88 channels from the East and West and provides add/drop for both directions. Then there would be an electrical switch(OTN) to handle add/drop. That's only 20-30 % of the total thru capacity. You might also have a degree 3 or 4 handling North and/or South routes with the corresponding increase in add/drop. That's why the vendors talk about integrated control planes (ie they handle both optical and electrical switching as necessary. BTW, mp3, ALU has several different switches and shelf sizes with the 1830. The max single switch capacity was 3.8T. To go larger than that they support multi-shelf arrangements organized in a clos configuration. That gets expensive though so some customers (Vz) have required the vendors to develop CDC (colorless/directionless/contentionless) ROADMs so that they have more control optically on the add/drop bandwidth.

  • iluvglw iluvglw May 13, 2014 12:05 PM Flag

    ODU0 is a standards artifact. When the OTN standards work began, it was viewed as a new transport standard that would take the place of sonet/sdh. While the standards discussions were going on, the prevalance of data as a service went way up. 10GBE was covered because they had a 10G container but how to carry 1GBE efficiently. They decided they needed an ODU0 to carry gigabit ethernet. Even after that there was debate with the carriers whether it was necessary to provide a gigabit ethernet client interface on a terabit transport switch. But, as in most debates with carriers, the vendors lost the arguement and the carriers made it a requirement in their rfps.

  • Reply to

    INFN leaving ALU in the dust

    by byronangel May 9, 2014 9:24 AM
    iluvglw iluvglw May 10, 2014 2:50 AM Flag

    So what do you think he means when he says Worldwide 100g ports? Infinera modifies Dell 'Oro numbers to reduce Huawei and ZTE for their china sales. That's Infinera not Dell 'Oro. Bottom line is that Byron's blathering about 100g market leadership is now highly suspect with this new number from ALU's call.
    Agree with you that burning 1/2 billion in cash is horrific. That's what a turnaround at a multi- billion dollar revenue company looks like. Compare a company that burns $16 m on $143 m in revenue. It's about 11%. For ALU it's $550m on $4.1b. It's about 13%.
    ALU expect's to be cash flow positive in 2015. They have plenty of resources to get them there even if they really do continue burning at this rate.

  • Reply to

    INFN leaving ALU in the dust

    by byronangel May 9, 2014 9:24 AM
    iluvglw iluvglw May 9, 2014 7:22 PM Flag

    All I can say is that you are misinformed. 1850 is an access/metro product. 1830 is transport with integrated switching for the core/metro. Of course you can do grooming on the 1830. It is the product that the DTN-X competes with. It is the product that has over 12000 100G ports sold. It is the product that Vz chose over the DTN-X. It's the product that had 26 new customers in Q1 alone.

  • Reply to

    INFN leaving ALU in the dust

    by byronangel May 9, 2014 9:24 AM
    iluvglw iluvglw May 9, 2014 7:02 PM Flag

    Bull, everything scales with the share count or at least market cap. That's how you talk about two companies of very different size. The operating profit also scales with the share count. If you want to talk about more comparable aspects, then look at the dwdm results specifically. 26 new customers versus 1? Once again, I'm not pushing ALU but this post was written to provide another perspective versus Byron's misleading post.

  • Reply to

    INFN leaving ALU in the dust

    by byronangel May 9, 2014 9:24 AM
    iluvglw iluvglw May 9, 2014 5:40 PM Flag

    At the risk of annoying all the ALU haters here, I'll provide a couple of points from the earnings release. First of all, operating profitability. ALU beat expectations by announcing an operating profit of 33m euro (~2 US cents/share). Yes, on a gap basis they lost 73m euro (about 4 US cents) but so did another company we talk about a lot. Moving on to optical, they announced a few points that might be interesting to readers here. First, the 1830 platform that the DTN-X competes against registered 26 new wins in the quarter. Remind me again how many wins the DTN-X had? Wasn't it 1? Alu also announced that they have shipped over 12,000 100G ports lifetime-to-date. This points out how bad a job Jimmy Yu at Dell 'Oro is doing at estimating 100G ports. Dell 'Oro has them at 4604 at the end of Q42013. Actually they have probably shipped more 100G ports than Infinera (Infinera reported 10k shipped at end of March). I'm not pushing ALU. I'm just pointing out that their optical business is doing very well and will continue to be a very strong competitor in the optical space.

  • Reply to

    JNPR with $1.8B offer for INFN !!!

    by mp3ka May 5, 2014 3:53 PM
    iluvglw iluvglw May 6, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    Bull, didn't think I was getting personal. First of all, I agree with you. Most longs on this board would think a bid of anything less than 100% premium was a failure. As Byron has said this stock is going to the moon. I was making a point however (albeit a bear point). The result of all that stock that they issue is real. For this quarter alone going from 125m to 128m shares would reduce a hypothetical offer by over 30 cents per share. The other point was that this stock has seen 14 before. I just eyeballed the chart but it looked like 2008. BTW, I also agree with tracey that it's unlikely that an offer in this industry would command this sort of premium. Cisco and Juniper have higher p/s because they have historically enjoyed higher margins. Fewer competitors and more secret sauce in the software for routers. That's fading as more competitors have made inroads (ALU and Huawei).

  • Reply to

    JNPR with $1.8B offer for INFN !!!

    by mp3ka May 5, 2014 3:53 PM
    iluvglw iluvglw May 6, 2014 1:35 AM Flag

    125 M shares is so last quarter. CFO said to expect 128M shares this quarter. That takes it down to $14.06. Party like it's 2008.

  • Reply to

    JDSU

    by byronangel May 1, 2014 1:36 PM
    iluvglw iluvglw May 2, 2014 1:27 PM Flag

    I mentioned Ciena because that have a historically strong relationship with JDSU. European vendors are likely also stronger customers for JDSU than Chinese vendors but not to the extent of Ciena.

  • Reply to

    JDSU

    by byronangel May 1, 2014 1:36 PM
    iluvglw iluvglw May 2, 2014 12:06 AM Flag

    Less than 30% of revenues come from all of asia pacific. The change from Q2 2013 to 1 H 2014 was around 3%. You can bet that Ciena will continue to get a lot more of those modulators.

  • Reply to

    JDSU

    by byronangel May 1, 2014 1:36 PM
    iluvglw iluvglw May 1, 2014 8:49 PM Flag

    Disappearing post again. I had posted that I evidently read the same article as Byron because it said flat QoQ (capacity constraints) and that they projected 25% growth for next quarter. I further pointed out that this is a measure of the growth of Infinera's competitors 100g sales since that's who buys JDSU's 100g modulators (bulk of their 100g component sales). I thought that it posted successfully but it's no longer here.

  • iluvglw iluvglw Apr 28, 2014 12:37 PM Flag

    NSN (now Coriant) has a long standing relationship with Juniper. This was primarily due to NSN's penetration into the NA tier 1's - Vz and AT&T during the 40G build cycle. I would expect that Coriant sees this as a very strategic relationship and will work hard to maintain their relationship.

  • Reply to

    What's holding INFN down?

    by xyzsofwealth Apr 24, 2014 1:17 PM
    iluvglw iluvglw Apr 24, 2014 8:11 PM Flag

    I haven't heard. But, I agree with you that it's an existing customer. They refer to it multiple times as an opportunity and as a large deal. They don't say new customer.

  • Reply to

    What's holding INFN down?

    by xyzsofwealth Apr 24, 2014 1:17 PM
    iluvglw iluvglw Apr 24, 2014 4:32 PM Flag

    Are you kidding? That was Tracey selling half her position :)

INFN
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