Can any immunologist or infectious disease specialist comment on the strange events that can occur in the sickest of the sick patient population? The drugs seems very effective but the idea of GVHD...I haven't heard of any good explanation. I'm curious of the subset analysis that can be the basis for a future study.
Look. The movement here at this level is Shorts taking control of the overall Biotech weakness and squeezing BB out of their massive position. None of BB's Biotech bets have done nothing in the past 2 months but free fall. SGEN, BLCM, ACAD etc... ACAD should do well in the meeting. The safety profile is very clean.
The set up for ACAD will be something to look back to. Let's see who owns the 99% of the float. Who just bought up all of the secondary offering at $29? It appears to me that the price manipulation we are seeing is partly the exchange traded funds having to dump shares due to the recent market volatility. But, individual funds are adding. In the next month or so, I suspect JJ or BIIB buys out ACAD for their 2+ Billion dollar drug and for the pipeline that may make the buyer a company set for the next decade.
We'll wake up one morning and see a buyout offer at $40+. That will make for a nice 2016. Baker Bros are banking on ACAD.
Hedge funds are readjusting their holding based on the abysmal rate of return for some of their biotech stocks. While they are unloading, someone is buying. When sufficient number of share are accumulated, then we will rise again. Recall, Redmile and others bought at 15-30% higher than where things are today.
I agree. BVF and Redmile have positioned ARRY as their number 1 holding in the funds. Green has been buying like crazy from $4.5 to $5.95 He bought over 3 million shares since August. That's serious conviction. I think ARRY is the 4x waiting to happen in 2016.
Here's my take on the recent action for ARRY:
Several prominent hedge funds have taken a sizable stake in ARRY. Many of these hedge funds got decimated in Sept-Nov period. The same ones held substantial concentration of shares in other high flying biotech's. Take Redmile for example, their top 4 holdings were ARRY, FOLD, VRX and CLVS. Needless to say, Redmile may have lost over 50% in the past three month. FMR LLC, Deerfield, BVF and Orbimed didn't fare too well either. I highly doubt they are dumping a
Redmile, BVF and Orbimed are all getting killed in the biotech space. I think we are seeing some capitulation and liquidation sales of a lot of promising companies. The accelerated sales at the end of the day is likely tied to many Hedge Funds facing margin call and having to liquidate.
This affords opportunities for the rest of us. ARRY with 3 PIII trials, 2 of which will be paid for could make for an interesting buyout candidate. A larger bio-pharma could pick up ARRY on the cheap and if any of the PIII trials succeed, this would be a huge boon for their pipeline.