While I am long, I do not think you know those items on your list. VRX may trade at 3 times previously projected earnings but I think management will take down the projections. We all hope the 10k will be filed this month but we do not know that it will. Pearson may decide he doesn't want to sign it.... or the accountants may balk.... so we don't know.
I do agree with your premise that VRX has gone through its own bear market.... and may be much safer than many/most stocks with high multiples.
The earnings (loss!) are going to be ugly this week. I figure with the layoff expense and the horrible realizations and the fact that q2 isn't looking much better.... they will try to pack all the terrible news into one paper bag. Then come with the secondary. Maybe some debt and a convertible as well as common.
So, I am going to be curious whether Mr. Miller built his position with knowledge of most of the information which was disclosed in the Forbes article. I hope he was aware of the $30 million of supposedly restricted shares donated to Duke, as well as the drinking problems, and the dictatorial management style. I say that because I bought without knowing and if he bought more knowing of those issues... I will take comfort.
I don't agree that $13 is over any reasonable valuation (just on the high side), but agree on equity raise. It is always interesting when oil is up and ng is down, yet SWN (which is 99% gas) is up big. SWN reacts to oil???
Has anyone else read both? Wow, scary. My entry price is in the high $30s. I have lost a lot of respect for Ackman and Value Act. Were those guys blind?? I still think there is residual value but no chance to recover to anywhere near previous levels. My hope is they file 10k, get a little bounce, and maybe sell off Bausch and Lomb to right the ship.
It is worth reading the Vanity Fair article on Valeant/Pearson/Ackman. What seems clear to me is that Mr. Ackman understood VRX much less well than he should have. To have invested billions of $s and to have missed just how much the entire business model depended on just jacking up drug prices would make any savvy investor run away from Pershing Square. It will be interesting to see if he and Mr. Pappa can save the company.
That was the price paid to CHK, $5 billion for 413,000 acres in the Marcellus. So in June 2016 SWN sold 55,500 acres in the Marcellus to Antero for $450 million or $8,181 an acre. So a drop of 33%. Hmmm? All acreage is not created equal but maybe the rough math works?? 33% haircut for balance sheet protection?? What I know about spudding wells is zilch... just running a calculator.
The presentation on page 55 of the 10K is a little fuzzy. They actually marked up the value from 2014 when Career Builder was carried at ~$227 mm to ~$230 mm for 2015. MNI acknowledges a dividend from CB of $7.5 mm in 2015.
I think the accounting regulations say they have to mark down the stake if it falls below the carrying value. so given that they marked the stake upwards and the dividend looks like it is about 3%, my take would be to go with the $230mm value. I am not an accountant.... but I like looking at financial statements.
Still worried short term. Long term, great leveraged play on ng. Just not sure if there will be an equity raise between short term and long term. Most companies address indebtedness issues like SWN has for 2018 about 24 months in advance. With credit downgrade and current SWN bond yielding 15%.... debt raise is unappealing. And so much nationwide gas in storage (~3-4% extra in terms of annual usage) so production really needs to drop 3 to 4% industry wide in 2016 and that doesn't seem to be in the cards. Just thinking out loud. I am not smart enough to offer a recommendation. Clearly, a movement to $3 ng solves any dilemma .... then buy, buy, buy.... but short term, my guess and it is most uneducated.....is ng goes lower, like back to sub $1.75 , first. Today is a great day to be an SWN long.
I do not necessarily disagree. I bought 1000 shares in late March, before the articles were published. Have you read them?? Clearly, Pearson was and is a loose cannon. Just hope they can right the ship.
So VRX acquired Isuprel and Nitropress in 2015. According to Today's WSJ, they then raised the prices by 525% and 212%. Now, under changes effective immediately again according to the journal hospitals will be "eligible for a rebate of at least 10% but up to 40% based on volume... So my thinking is that the prices will still be up between ~475% and ~200% on Isuprel and between ~190% and 120% on Nitropress. Very generous of Valeant??????
Maybe they can get refinancing on the debt due in 2018 on favorable terms. It appears CHK received more rope yesterday and SWN responded to that news. Short term financial performance looks grim but maybe good news just over the horizon???
You will have to pull them up. New Yorker--- Why Moneyball Failed in Pharmaceutical Industry. Forbes---Valeant Pharmaceuticals Prescription for Disaster. I read them last night... but I triggered my VRX investment a few weeks ago.
Well, the $2 billion line also matures in 2018 (December, thank goodness) and the lenders have optionality to adjust the rate if SWN wants to renew under existing agreement of Libor plus 2%. There is still breathing room but continued supply of oxygen not guaranteed. Today's price action was interesting. CHK down, but SWN up? Squeeze in SWN?
Ok. But what is the bear case that has caused the huge short interest. I see good revenue and income growth despite the problems of the peer to peer lenders. What am I missing?
So, I am a long time Lending Club lender. I have avoided the stock because it has been overpriced and there are scalability problems if loan losses mount. I think TREE will be a winner in the space. Lending Club gets some leads through the TREE platform. While there exists some correlation between loan originations and TREE versus Lending Club, Prosper, and On Deck they are in a different segment from TREE. I agree the market incorrectly tends to lump TREE with the others. Solution: Buy more TREE!!? It is on sale.
Thanks for the memories! Gary lacked vision when it came to understanding how internet would destroy the newspaper business model. He also whiffed in comprehending that the housing bubble was driving millions of classified ads which evaporated in the crash. The KRI acquisition is in the pantheon of all time business blunders. What inscription would you recommend for his tombstone?