So, I am a long time Lending Club lender. I have avoided the stock because it has been overpriced and there are scalability problems if loan losses mount. I think TREE will be a winner in the space. Lending Club gets some leads through the TREE platform. While there exists some correlation between loan originations and TREE versus Lending Club, Prosper, and On Deck they are in a different segment from TREE. I agree the market incorrectly tends to lump TREE with the others. Solution: Buy more TREE!!? It is on sale.
I don't agree that $13 is over any reasonable valuation (just on the high side), but agree on equity raise. It is always interesting when oil is up and ng is down, yet SWN (which is 99% gas) is up big. SWN reacts to oil???
The presentation on page 55 of the 10K is a little fuzzy. They actually marked up the value from 2014 when Career Builder was carried at ~$227 mm to ~$230 mm for 2015. MNI acknowledges a dividend from CB of $7.5 mm in 2015.
I think the accounting regulations say they have to mark down the stake if it falls below the carrying value. so given that they marked the stake upwards and the dividend looks like it is about 3%, my take would be to go with the $230mm value. I am not an accountant.... but I like looking at financial statements.
I am still trying to digest the conference call and the cash conservation decisions of the last few months.
1. Management team seems first class. The analysts seemed universally impressed with the quarter.
2. Operating costs reflect best in class performance.
3. Management thinks ng prices will be low for at least 6 months.... hence new hedges.
4. Management issued stock worth $27 million to pay preferred divvie when stock was ~$7-8.
5. Mr. Way said equity issuance is an option he must consider as public corporation to the Goldman Sachs analyst query about the proper ratio of EBITDA to debt at $3 ng.
So I guess I think there will be an equity raise announced shortly because if you took $7.50 when you issued stock instead of cash for pref. div., you must be thrilled at $11.50, right???. especially if you think ng prices will remain low for at least 6 more months... meaning the debt market will be unfriendly until the strip improves.... and SWN hedging indicates management doesn't anticipate much improvement or not until at least year end.
I sold most of my B shares back then, but still hold some.... hanging around for the end of the story?? I guess I vaguely remember Shepard getting an offer from the company. Thanks for the reminder.
Why not use the ~$230 million value from the 10K? They adjust the value each year. Since MNI owns 15% of Career Builder that would put the total value of CB at $1.5 billion. Maybe in the ballpark. Monster (MWW) market cap is only ~$300 million.
Current consensus estimate for 2016 is $8.79. Still too high given negative publicity which has put off some customers and will cause reexamination (reduction??) of some pricing. Or do you think new management will stick with 3/15 guidance? Standard operating procedure is to dump all negative news in first report by new CEO and lay blame on predecessors.
While I am long, I do not think you know those items on your list. VRX may trade at 3 times previously projected earnings but I think management will take down the projections. We all hope the 10k will be filed this month but we do not know that it will. Pearson may decide he doesn't want to sign it.... or the accountants may balk.... so we don't know.
I do agree with your premise that VRX has gone through its own bear market.... and may be much safer than many/most stocks with high multiples.
The earnings (loss!) are going to be ugly this week. I figure with the layoff expense and the horrible realizations and the fact that q2 isn't looking much better.... they will try to pack all the terrible news into one paper bag. Then come with the secondary. Maybe some debt and a convertible as well as common.
So have you read the Forbes article? I came out after I bought and it is kind of scary. How could the guys at Pershing Square and Value Act (Ackman and Ubben) have been so blind or did they just not deem those flaws as relevant?
So, I am going to be curious whether Mr. Miller built his position with knowledge of most of the information which was disclosed in the Forbes article. I hope he was aware of the $30 million of supposedly restricted shares donated to Duke, as well as the drinking problems, and the dictatorial management style. I say that because I bought without knowing and if he bought more knowing of those issues... I will take comfort.
I do not necessarily disagree. I bought 1000 shares in late March, before the articles were published. Have you read them?? Clearly, Pearson was and is a loose cannon. Just hope they can right the ship.
You will have to pull them up. New Yorker--- Why Moneyball Failed in Pharmaceutical Industry. Forbes---Valeant Pharmaceuticals Prescription for Disaster. I read them last night... but I triggered my VRX investment a few weeks ago.
Has anyone else read both? Wow, scary. My entry price is in the high $30s. I have lost a lot of respect for Ackman and Value Act. Were those guys blind?? I still think there is residual value but no chance to recover to anywhere near previous levels. My hope is they file 10k, get a little bounce, and maybe sell off Bausch and Lomb to right the ship.
Maybe they can get refinancing on the debt due in 2018 on favorable terms. It appears CHK received more rope yesterday and SWN responded to that news. Short term financial performance looks grim but maybe good news just over the horizon???
Well, the $2 billion line also matures in 2018 (December, thank goodness) and the lenders have optionality to adjust the rate if SWN wants to renew under existing agreement of Libor plus 2%. There is still breathing room but continued supply of oxygen not guaranteed. Today's price action was interesting. CHK down, but SWN up? Squeeze in SWN?