According to the Secretary-General, the oil market doesn't need to look for oil prices to bottom as the market has already bottomed. Instead, he offered quite bullish comments by saying, "Now the prices are around $45-$55, and I think maybe they [have] reached the bottom and we [will] see some rebound very soon." Now, normally that type of remark would be just another layer of noise, but this is coming from OPEC's Secretary-General so it comes with a lot of weight behind it.
The Secretary-General said that, "if you don't invest in oil and gas, you will see more than $200" when it comes to future oil prices. While he didn't give a timeframe, he did note the correlation between investment and future production
They are selling into every rip.
Sorry, wrong week, This is for next week Friday. Are traders thinking a crash off earnings and betting accordingly
I care less about the past qtr than I do with guidance going forward on the changes that will occur from the BL BK, the divi cut and the tax benefits they have going forward, along with their views of production within NA markets.
Some impressive volume moves right now. I mentioned this morning that metals and oild were the only thing moving positively, now it is hitting big time
On this point I agree 100%. Clarity of purpose with CLF is something we've rarely had, so many people here are left to guess and the winners so far are the shorts with their analysis.
Maybe CLF can not say until after 2/26.
Read pages 3 and 4 of the motion for issuance by the superior court, points 11-15. There is no hint of your views. I do not remember where I read it from but LG said the same. They tried and there is no interest. I do not believe they would file with a lie about buyers at the time of filing. Buyers may come forward, but there are no interested people now.
indicators, supported by the bond markets, and where most materials/commodities hovered at decade lows or 12 month lows. I kept saying this could not last in the USA, that we can not carry the world if we're the only ones growing.
Where doe future demand come from?
During 2014 the major indexes rocketed higher daily and each sell-off was bought back in 3 seconds, and the indexes climbed higher because buyers were buying the top 20 stocks in each index while darn near everything else was struggling.
Now the reality looks to be hitting home. It took a lot longer than I thought. Now the markets reflect global GDP's.
Nearly every commodity (hard or soft) is at/around 6 month lows. Oil is the newest one to join the pitty-party. I know IO is being overproduced, as is oil. What about copper or the rest that confirm global GDP growth? There is still so much too wonder/worry about.
How much longer do we wait for housing to recover to much better levels (lumber pricing is still drifting lower). Low mortgage rates are not helping.
How many more cars will be built going forward? So many were bought over this replacement cycle off some of the best incentives in history.
Will oil companies need more steel for oil/gas pipelines?
There may be hope from an infrastructure bill that has languished for a long time. China is even looking at doing this for some areas of the country to help its GDP.
Where does the demand come from?
Seadrill's greatest advantage, even if oil prices stay low, is the fact that it has one of the youngest fleets in the industry. Only 3% of Seadrill's rigs were built before 2000, meaning they're more reliable and capable than competitors' rigs. If drilling contracts are available in the next few years, explorers will value the younger fleet, meaning a greater chance of winning a contract even if it's at lower dayrates than Seadrill has today. In offshore drilling, the worst thing that can happen is to have a rig out of work. There's less likelihood Seadrill doesn't find work than many of its competitors' fleets.
Now that Seadrill has cut its dividend, it will have a far less risky business. Last quarter ended with $13.1 billion in long-term debt, and now that the dividend is eliminated, the company can save about $2 billion per year in cash to pay for debt or new rigs. Financial flexibility is key because Seadrill has about $4 billion in yard installments to pay on top of funding operations and debt. But to pay for all of this, Seadrill has $24 billion in backlog, so financial conditions may not be as dire as they appear.
From what I have read I just don't get that. Did I miss something?
There is nothing in the update from the CCAA filing either, nor did the filing really imply buyers were in play. Public comments by LG said they tried hard but could not find a buyer or come to any arrangement with the government.
I agree with everything you said but I do not agree with your short thesis. The shorts are in control of CLF for now. There are not enough new longs other than the impressive adds by Connley and BLK Rock in January, increasing their positions to more than 7 and 9 percent respectively.
The greatest failure is communication of how the plan executes. He laid out his plan and he's implemented the plan but he's left it up to the shorts to interpret what that means and the price action tells you who is winning (and has won for several years) the debate.
No messaging is being done anywhere on WS or in the media except for the large short position and how lower IO price impacts CLF more than other minors.
Messaging being left for people with bad motives is what is winning. WS is not as dumb as we say they are. They are playing this short game because it works very well. Until CLF can dhange the narrative for the company, we may see am historical low in CLF before too long.
MACD moved up from -3 to -.8. Momentum turned positive. All indicators sloping in right direction. Maybe this means the worst of the selling is behind, at least for now. A/D is still ugly and this is why the SP languishes above $10.
Everything else that CLF has done recently has taken CLF back to its current decade lows. WS said what they think with a 30% plus cut over one weeks time and the highest short interest in 12 months.
We still keep trying to figure this damn thing out with justifications why it should be higher. Glimmers of hope all faded into new levels of lower lows.
I seriously doubt that. I don't know enough about securities law, but I would have to imagine something done by Casa along those lines would open up a class action law suite of epic levels. They have a duty to the shareholder, and something like this should be a hangable offense.
more like oil producers gone wild?
Evey oil producer is sending every drop of oil to market that they can while complaining about low oil prices. Did they skip classes the day they tought supply/demand basics?
Greed and stupidity is bacfiring on them now and they will not come to grips with the new world order of production from USA and Canada.
Maybe this is our new reality.
But I am not comforeted by shorts who increase their postion every reporting period to 12 month highs as of now. They do not see the same thing and do ne seem to be worried about a catalyst that will trun this on a dime.
I asked this board the following question this morning but no one replied. Do you know if this is a reason for the silence...
Does anyone here know if there is something with the quiet period that prohibits CLF from discussion the BL BK further, or does it have anything to do with the proceedings itself? Maybe they are not allowed explain how it helps them in any details until after February 26 once the Superior Court rules on the initial order?
I suspect it will be a great deal of the Q&A portion during the CC.
On the plus side of things....It is also hard to imagine that two smart investors like Connell and Blackrock increased their positions in CLF during January as anything negative for CLF going forward. They certainly analyzed this thoroughly before adding share. I doubt they are worried by the situation at hand. Connell likely doubled down, but he would not have done this if CLF was likely to fail. Traders at that level will admit their mistakes and make necessary corrections to not let their holding get out of control.
I am comforted by this somewhat
Look at what Connley and BLK did in January by adding shares the way they did. They must have a pretty good sense of where CLF will eventually be. I am sure they did not take any positions in WLT during its collapse. What do they see that everyone else is missing? What is CLF missing by not taking that message to WS on a regular basis?