Anyways, all the drillers getting the same action today
No more analysis than what you said is required. In July Nat Gas was over $4. Today it is $2.50ish with nothing on the chart showing a turn. I got into CHK on what the CEO and Ichan did, but simply for a trade. Whenever nat gas turns back up, that is a time to go long CHK.
expansion plans this sector went in a roar. I traded CLF twice during this time for some smaller profits but it will take me a lifetime of these gains to break even in what my losses have been.
To figure it took BHP (or any producer) this long to figure out how constant oversupply crushes prices is simply stunning. They killed themselves and a lot of investors waiting so long for a flawed strategy to be corrected, or maybe not. Watch RIO f-it all up by picking up production BHP is leaving behind.
evident so far. This trade goes against every instinct to stay out of CHK but I am in now. The reasons to stay out are stronger than those to go long, but sometimes its all about a gamble.
CHK has gone lower week by week since June of 2014 with few exceptions. Volume on the selling is above average a majority of those weeks. The chart is ugly. Were it not for recent big buys by those guys, I would not be in.
Oil prices rising, despite what some people continue to post about, is still struggling to find footing for a rising price. The global macro matters still in GDP and oil demand still drive the trend down. I just hope that Ichan has a play that causes a bump here, because it is hard to make a case otherwise for the stock or for the sector
Pull up a 6 month chart on all things oil. The refiners are the only group doing better, and all the other are lower. The drillers are doing the worst. Oil dropped like 50+ percent and the stocks much more. On a YTD basis many are doing better, but not by that much. There still is work to be done to repair the carnage, but it is happening.
Any pop is short lived. While the oil/brent/nat gas may be rising more the stocks are slower to respond.
depends on the time frame you are looking at/ On a 6 month chart nothing is higher. On a YTD chart there are higher ones.
Bit for the drillers, they are doing the worst.
Are you so red in your position in sdrl that you naturally gravitate toward negative commentary or is it something else?
There may have been Too many head-fakes in oil of late for new positions to be taken. It's like the boy crying wolf. Eventually news of oil doing better is ignored until proven otherwise. So, shorts continue to rule the trade for now.
oil doing better is ignored until proven otherwise.
drops 3 - 5 cents. Is this the MM trying to do something because vol is in the toilet today and maybe by dropping the price they are trying to attract buyers or what? Who the hell buys/sells 100 shares? With commissions, that takes a big 5 move to break even.
Carl had RIG wrong. We'll see if he gets this one right. So far, the shorts seem to own it.
Chesapeake Energy was initiated with a "reduce" rating at Nomura. Twelve-month price target is $13. In the current price environment, Nomura's 2016 & 2017 estimates are well below consensus, as Nomura's analysts say the market will be surprised at production decline magnitude at CHK's current capex levels.
They've had it wrong with every commentary since last November when most of them had said that the OPEC decision would not cause oil to drop below $70, ever.
Since last fall they've been all over the board on where oil is going and calling the bottom.
No one has a clue where oil is going so until oil prices actually stabilize and rise, the game continues. It all depends on where you buy because if you get it wrong, there will be some more 10% two day losses in share price.
The volatility in oil is sever on both sides of the trade with nothing gradual. Traders are desperate to catch the wave higher and anytime they think the direction change is starting, they jump in hard only to bail immediately after on any new headline.
In 30 years of investing I know that newspapers have little to do with stock movement. Newspapers are usually the last to report. This is more about momentum and perception. The news flow is actually more favorable for these stocks in my view. WS keeps getting oil wrong. They make bets it has bottomed and a few days later they change their minds.
compared to the others it is not doing as well right now but feye is very near its 90 day high and above my pp, so I will take that. However, this action today is not what I would have bet on. Not sure if this is feye specific or a simple matter of trust in feye by WS? IIt clearly is something
part of your thesis is right but not all, and vol has little to do with this. SDRL has dropped to lower lows daily for 4 days and the chart does not imply a change of direction yet. All indicators sow more of the same. This could change but for now there are only sellers driving the direction. So yes we need bids to take control but not now. The drop of late is huge by any standard.
Once again it is beginning to look like anyone buying for a bottom in oil is being taken to the fool-shed, like me yesterday.
Ichans added stake and the CEO's purchase both being disregarded entirely. You may be right about what the shorts think. However, often they have it right despite what Ichan and the CEO just did. I bought CHK on this news recently, so I hope they have it right and we know why soon.
any rally in feye seems to be treated with suspicion or doubt of a sustainable advance. FEYE still has to prove itself to WS.
days makes zero sense. Seems like the shorts have this one by the short hairs.