The only stuff in the materias sector to have a gain over the ;ast month is chemicals.
Zacks put out a neutral rating on the stock today, using a lame argument in my opinion.
WS just does not believe what they have done can be sustained going forward.
It may take the next ER to change minds.
Stop beating each other up and except that it is not just CLF. All these stocks have the same 1 month chart: VALE, CLF, BHP, BTU, SCCO, FCX. WS took the entire sector down and are still doing so. Why, who the 'F' knows, but they did and they are still doing it.
This has very little to do with CLF alone.
We are all very frustrated by it, and maybe it is just a 50% to 70% rise since summer and profit taking as a result.
cause them to rethink their GDP estimates and they will actually raise it?
Many people said that the inventory build in q3 is the reason for the q4 downgrade. I think todays payroll report shows that the inventory build is because of demand, so the stuff won't be sitting on shelves as those had feared.
If they now raise their estimates for q4, then they will have to rethink their views for the materials secotr, as materials will be in demand. IO pricing of late confirms my views. I think.
Well, that is how WS works. never be able to fgure it out. Just have to be nimble enough to trade it.
On condition, DOW will drop again big on the close unless buyers finally step up. Normally, December is a very good month for stocks.
PR won't do it by itself. Too many stocks in the sector were shot down here. WS is confused and conflicted about what to do going forward. There seems to be enough evidence to favor the sector, but we all know the reasons why they are not buying right now. It may just take someone big to start the buying again and then we'll see an up move.
I hold VALE from $17, bought on day of its ER. Ouch for now. While VALE had some good news, WS punished it hard after earnings, even on the day of/after its investors day, and now it's catching a bid. Not sure if the buying is because of PR or an oversold situation.
VALE also said some of its capacity to deliver was going to be limited by rail capacity, which seems to translate from Brazilian to English as DEMAND IS GOOD.
Was that the reason for the pre-market bump in VALE to 15.25 before traders sold it down to 14.80ish area?
yet all of the news coming out bodes well for the group, or so it would seem.
Are traders simply booking profits? I would have guessed, based on the news coming out this week, that if that were the case, they would resume buying again because of the forward looking news. This can not be because od a tapering fear, and if it is, the logic of these traders seems flawed.
I am beginning to be frustrated by the hit the group is taking and the lack of buying.
from sellers yesterday in the IO stocks following the nice increase in prices for IO. I realize most stocks trade in tandem with the overall market and will rise or fall in synch.
Regardless, WS took the metals and mining stocks out over the last month. Unless another leg of selling pressure hits the sector, the charts show some stabilization.
My biggest concern or complaint is with the analysts/traders who still believe that IO can not sustain the higher prices despite concesus views of an improving global economy along with better housing and car sales. I know they still worry about rising IO supplies but the producers have already put an end to that story.
Maybe they just took profits after a nice rise since Summer? I do not think it is about tapering.
Thanks. Two consecutive substantial gains. Nice news for the sector that was hammered over two weeks.
You have the main point for the recent drop. Materials and metals in all sectors were hit equally in the last 2 weeks to the tune of 12% to 20% declines.
WS is taking prfoits from the rise that started this June/July. In the case of CLF, that stock was up 70% while FCX was up 40%.
While CLF was up 70% from its June lows, and has now corrected about 20%, along with almost everything else materials related, here are some startling facts to consider.
The following stocks all had decent gains since this summer, but they are also just off of 8 year to 10 year lows: CLF, VALE, RIO, FCX, X, WLT, and BTU.
So, are the highs for the group in?
WS buys the expectation and sells the news. Did they already price in everything we're seeing now in the news and are they selling it for a profit from a bounce or are they selling it for good?
buyers here, it is not going to be easy to see an upswing. I suppose this means WS doesn't have enough conviction yet for DE.
Where the heck is everyone?
Your argument is well said but I do not believe that could be said by the company that will change the direction of this stock or any stock in this sector for the time being.
WS knows all of your points. WS knows they beat 3qtrs in a row. WS knows IO pricing is much higher than what was projected, and so on...
WS also know the entire group has had a great advance since June. Despite that advancement, despite all of the other good news about CLF, WS also does not care or agree right now, as evidenced by the short interest they maintain.
WS listened to the conference calls and read the ER. They have another opinion. Maybe management at CLF could help to re-shape the views, but maybe they already said it.
WS will just need to get their brains bashed in by CLF continuing to surprise and beat. That is the only way to move this stock back up and keep it up.
You have to admit that management credibility on the street was severely damaged. Now that they have a new CEO, perhaps they should improve on this matter.
CLF bumped up nicely from the June lows, and now like all the others in the materials space, some of their gains are being booked.
There is a logical argument that can be made for a correction in CLF stock price, just as much as there is for continued growth in the stock price. However, after 70% upside from the lows, profits will be taken, particularly since WS keeps saying a correction has to happen right now. So traders are afraid. When fear comes to the forefront, people take profits.
Improving fundamentals/growth will cause QE to end, which, in their silly analysis, must mean an end to the stock market. God forbid that rising bond prices are bad.
While the fundamentals bode well for CLF, WS is taking a breather.
The other stocks you mentioned trade at multiples they should not be at. I do not try to explain craziness, because they trade where they do not belong. Wait till they crack.
perhaps they said some things investors wanted to hear?
This seems normal for CLF. The following two-week sell-off happened in CLF three times since Summer.
26% drop over two weeks mid Aug to Sept
19% drop over two weeks mid Sept to Oct
16% sell off currently over about same time frame.
Does it end here, or does it continue? keep in mind, very little is doing well in the entire materials group.
Gun, keep that in mind with CLF, as CLF is not the only stock being hammered down here. If it was, then you should worry.
How many CEO's do you know of who talk about their companies stock price other than during an analyst day or in a conference call? The answer is almost none. The last CEO I can recall in recent memory who said something about their stock price was Tesla's CEO who said it was overdone to the upside.
CEO's or company executives do not say stuff between quarterly releases.
I challenge you to point out others. This is a very rare thing to happen.
while all the rest in the sector sold off around the same time 10 days ago. Maybe WS is taking some profits before YE, as the entire group is up nicely since June, and CLF specifically was up about 70% before this recently drop.
Have you looked at more stocks in the materials sector than FCX? If you do this, you will notice all stocks are down from 10% to 15% over the last 10 days (IO, Coal, Copper, Steel).
IF it were just FCX, worry about FCX. However, all are being hit equally during this correction.