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Fluor Corporation Message Board

imaginejml 576 posts  |  Last Activity: May 1, 2015 2:57 PM Member since: Feb 21, 2013
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  • Reply to

    APIO Assets for sale...

    by vipinkot47 Mar 11, 2015 12:28 AM
    imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Mar 11, 2015 7:07 AM Flag

    We all know he's doing those things so this won't help CLF short term. Did he address what really matters now, the news we all want to hear with stories to sooth the savage investor? Did he go after the negative press this week?

    Mostly, did he respond to a 20% 3-day sell off. This is what #$%$ me off because he hasn't said the reasons they are wrong. Utter failure at defending the company against the media and WS boy-wonders.

  • The offshore drilling industry is facing what Carl Trowell, CEO of Ensco calls a "severe fall-off in customer demand that's unprecedented compared to what we've seen in prior cycles." After examining the earnings and conference calls of both SeaDrill (NYSE: SDRL ) and Transocean (NYSE: RIG ) , there are three reasons I think long-term investors will do better owning SeaDrill rather than Transocean.

    SeaDrill's fleet of UDW Drillships makes up 47 % of its total fleet and has an average age of have an average age of just 5 years compared to 23 years for Transocean.

    SeaDrill's more modern fleet allows it to command a higher than average day rate, even during this harsh industry downturn. For example here are the average day rates for each company's UDW drillships, the industry's most profitable rig type:
    •SeaDrill: $530,000
    •Transocean: $402,000
    •Industry Average: $514,000

    SeaDrill's management also seems better at securing more numerous and superior contracts.

    SeaDrill's backlog grows slightly while Transocean's shrinks
    In 2014 SeaDrill was able to grow its contract backlog. This is despite decreasing demand, and even accounting for the recent removal of $1.1 billion in backlog due to Petrobras (NYSE: PBR ) demanding contract renegotiations for two of SeaDrill's UDW rigs..

    While 2% growth doesn't sound like much, but when viewed in the context of such a horrific industry downturn and compared to Transocean's 22% backlog decline in 2014, SeaDrill's ability to maintain a stable backlog is a triumph.

    SeaDrill's newer fleet, better ability to secure high day rates, and more stable backlog give it the greatest chance of not just surviving the oil crash, but being able to participate in industry consolidation and potentially ending up with even greater market share and pricing power once oil prices finally recover to more sustainable levels.

  • Reply to

    APIO Assets for sale...

    by vipinkot47 Mar 11, 2015 12:28 AM
    imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Mar 11, 2015 6:22 AM Flag

    Australia is a mining mess with job losses everywhere. If someone offers to buy it, it may be at a firesale price. I wish they had this desire to sale them two years ago, or on day one of the CASA takeover.

  • Reply to

    OPEC is creating world wide recession

    by oropan45 Mar 10, 2015 12:35 PM
    imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Mar 10, 2015 6:47 PM Flag

    Wrong. Everything I wrote is already in motion to degress. Oil does not have to be 70, it can be 60 and all will be better for all. Oil stocks have been dropping for a year. Oil prices started dropping in a bigger way in November. The stock market just now started cratering and a reason WS gives for that is low oil prices.

    Retail spending when oil was 100 was much larger than now with oil low.

    Most commidities are at 6 month lows today and the recovery you infer by lower oil is simply false. The troubles the globe sees today is not because of oil. Name one country that blames its growth rates on high oil? They don't exist.

  • Reply to

    The Obama Peso is destroying CLF

    by cash.mccall Mar 10, 2015 2:45 PM
    imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Mar 10, 2015 6:36 PM Flag

    No, it is an idiot like yourself who doesn't understand that the unemployment rate was lower overall during the Bush term.

    GDP was much higher in the USA as well, as were wages. Fewer people were on government assistance like now (those numbers are larger by multiples of millions).

    Things turned south for Bush in the very end when the global recession hit. Pease do not take one data point from the worst of times on Bush and try to use that to time to make your case for today.

    By the way, the 5.5% rate you mentioned is false when you consider how many people left the work force, where the real rate is likely over 10% and many of the 5.5% employed now are under-emplyed, part timers, with many working two jobs to get by. Get educated on the facts.

    Tell me one thing Obama did to make things better? The good results we see are by comapnies with great CEO's doing remarkable things in a challenged environment along with QE, free money, etc. None of this is Obama's doing, although he does think he built it. Name one CEO who credit Obama for this?

    There is moer to say but I won't because you are likely a partisan fool who adores Obama for the #$%$ he says but can not accomplish a darn thing outsideof an executive order that is already on its way to the Supreeem Court to be overturned.

  • Reply to

    OPEC is creating world wide recession

    by oropan45 Mar 10, 2015 12:35 PM
    imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Mar 10, 2015 6:16 PM Flag

    You may not like the outcome of that. The carnage to follow will exceed the benefits of a lower pump price. Do you grasp you grasp this. More high-paying layoffs in oil will feed on more layoffs in lower paying support / anciallry jobs, carnage in the credit/bond markets, carnage on WS, carnage in cities and towns where the drilling is going on, carnage in counteries outside of the USA who depend on oil revenues, etc. The financial carnage may cause a global recession and this will mean what to you when you fill up your car for less.

  • SYDNEY—The world’s two largest mining companies say they are convinced China’s hunger for iron ore isn’t about to fade, even as the price plumbed new lows after Beijing’s official acceptance it is set for slower economic growth.

    This was in WS Journal this morning. It did not have an impact on the group today.

  • imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Mar 10, 2015 4:48 PM Flag

    He may hedge in another way, but not by shorting CLF. Even if this were legal, the perceptions if made known would destroy him forever. I agree he tried and failed and he is very likely in deep trouble. CLF was a large percentage of his funds holding. I doubt he has much enough left to do much of anything with CLF or by hedging. This company after this week is in trouble and LG better have something to add tomorrow to the narrative because this POS can not hold up on its own mertis no matter what the company is doing. This week is proof of that.

  • imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Mar 10, 2015 4:40 PM Flag

    Sorry, but I agree they don't have the cash to deploy on a buyback. no matter what Moody's says. If they had the money and spent it this way, WS would hit them even harder because whatever cash they will have will need to be used in operations, just my view, and especially more so if IO continues to drop. I hope to be very wrong about both items.

  • better jobs numbers with WS at all time highs nearly daily) and he probably wants to keep it that way. Although the idiot still doesn't have a clue that it has nothing to do with what he's done/not done, but that is another debate.

    So if they are worried about a 105 or more melt down, maybe a global recession, they announce QE forever, do things to lower the dollar and get oil prices higher and keep interest rate lower for longer. Eventually the whole damn things falls apart so bad this tinkering results in a 30% market correction.

    Who know what they do, but politicians today are all about today and damn tomorrow.

  • Maybe the SA / OPEC pricks figure out they need to cut production themselves, not just force down price s to force out frackers here.

  • late.

    On a separate note, this dollar rise is stunning on a percentage basis and how did WS suddenly get so damn scared and why? I get taking down the high-fliers of the past two years but to crush the stocks that already were near 10 year lows, really? What in the hell is this about?

    Corporate strategies to overproduce everything in hopes of crushing everyone else (primarily oil and miners for now) is imploding on them and they seem clueless about what needs to be done to fix it. They keep saying we're almost there but they've been saying it for over one year and the marginal still hang on while shareholders are crushed. why the hell do we stick around?

  • Reply to

    OPEC is creating world wide recession

    by oropan45 Mar 10, 2015 12:35 PM
    imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Mar 10, 2015 3:50 PM Flag

    I said the same two months ago, that it will take time to unfold, but they will on greed. Then they have the gal to say they did their job forcing down oil prices to force out some of the marginal NA fraker's. Hell, they're jos is to contribute in production cuts, not forcing out some frackers. Those rag-head pricks are causing some serious carnage that will far exceed any benefits consumers get from lower oil.

  • high of 6.90. I hoped CLF would have had commentary on this.

    LG says (pretends) to care about shareholders while he speaks during a CC. He tells us not to let shorts take control. He begs us to hold on. He pleads with us to hold the course but he does not come out when things are this dire to give shareholders guidance or comfort.

    Maybe he knows how to run a company like CLF or maybe not, he sure as hell can't message.

  • This entire sector is getting #$%$ on again after following a tanking of IO prices after decent move up.

    WS is ignoring what CLF is doing to separate itself from the herd and they may not pay attention until something executes. Why they still stay short on the possibilities going forward is curious? I still think we'll see 10m shares having covered on this report due out tonight. Maybe those shorts go back up on the next report in two weeks following the action of late?

  • imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Mar 10, 2015 7:02 AM Flag

    Maybe they just want the cash for other purposes/investments?

  • imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Mar 10, 2015 6:43 AM Flag

    Always read the entire thing...I skipped the last sentence. Thank you for pointing this out.

    So Cap World likely held those shares as an inv advisor. The P.A. is dated 12/19/14. Cap World filed the 13G on 2/6/15 and the SEC Filing came public now. LG made a lot of moves during this time period to set up a sale.

    So why is WS missing this? They are better than anyone at connecting the dots. Something does not make any sense here

  • Reply to

    Debt Exchange

    by vczapico Mar 9, 2015 9:44 PM
    imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Mar 10, 2015 6:13 AM Flag

    It seems like the CLF story even changes the book on how covering is done. CLF sure as hell is confussing us in every other respect, why not this one as well?

  • "Capital World is acting on behalf of Hudbay in the purchase and sale of CLF stock as stated on the SEC filing. Hudbay was a bidder for Consolidated Thompson and lost out to CLF."

    Is this a filing from the past when Hudbay tried before and lost to CLF or from now?

    If it was from the past is Hudbay still interested today with IO where it is? The story for IO changed in a big way. IO is not something they mine now. Do they really want to get into mining IO?

    I was suprised by the significant reduction in their share count and some of your theory makes some sense but the rest does not.

  • imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Mar 9, 2015 7:16 PM Flag

    Is this a guess. I tried to google anyhting along these lines and come up empty

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