All of this is know to WS. They already priced anything that can be monetized into FB loft valuation. For FB to become an $85 stock something completely unknown has to happen for FB. What is the likelihood of that? Not much in my move.
You still have the likelihood that adv will pull back some, like the thesis of the original poster explained, and as soon as that crack is seen, FB drops to a normal valuation, which will be a big decline in the SP.
CLF trading at a 2 week low and well below the recent 10.50 - 11.50 range. Looks like sellers over last 5 days are dominating the trade. We need buyers to power it up and that is going to take some news because the whole sector also taking the hits right now, just not as bad as CLF is.
And this is what retailers will soon discover on their own ad spend. The money spent dos not produce the results. Can not say when reality hits home, but it will.
Now add in Japan (which I have been saying was going to be a bust not a boom for them with their QE program), along with a worsening Europe and who knows how low she goes?
Looks like nothing but news moves CLF up. However, nothing but negative speculation keeps pressing CLF down/flat and also keeps the shorts active.
Buyers seemed to have walked away for the past 4 - 5 days.
This is from a post I had last week
LG average price is most likely $19.48. Statement of ownership shows he has 77,000 shares and he said he bought 1,500,000 shares in total during the time he was being considered by CAS for the CEO role in two increments ($1M in stage 1 and $500K in stage 2). Also look the insider positions by the new team and their costs range in price from CAS high of $25ish to a low of $15 - $17 range.
..."Murilo Ferreira, president and chief executive of Brazil's Vale, the world's biggest iron ore producer, told The Nikkei in early September that prices would rebound to $95-$100 per ton by year-end."
Same story reveals the more likely story for IO...."According to Murray, the surge in supply comes amid deteriorating economic growth in China, which consumes about 60% of the world's iron ore, nearly two-thirds of that in housing and infrastructure construction."
This is a current headline....UMETAL-CHINA, According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), daily crude steel output stood at 2.1781 million tonnes in Oct, 2014, a monthly drop of 3.3%. It was the first time for the figure to dip to below 2.2 million tonnes since Mar.
Unless the G20 does huge infrastrucure projects, the outlook does not change for better IO demand/higher pricing. The Eurozone seemed to be talking in some desperation today about more global growth worries and lowing forecasts again, which they've already lowered multiple times YTD.
The major producers, for whatever reasons, keep on keeping on with their flawed strategy that so far hasn't resulted in the outcome they hoped for. Supply is high. Prices are low. The marginal miners are still operating (maybe barely, but still here).
Our hope for CLf has more to do with selling off the seaborn stuff than it has to do with improving economies or improved global growth. There seems to be enough IO supply to satisfy these stimi projects these counteries may do. However, WS does not seem to be too worried because if they were, IO stocks would start to stabilize than rebound.
You have not been watching. Watch it. I promise you. I think you know from my psots I do not post #$%$. You masy not agree with me at times, but I do not k=nmake these things up
Avg 10 day vol today is over 6m shares. On Monday it was 9M shares. Yesterday 7M. Two weeks ago 14M shares. There are no buyers advance the move higher, just those who are here to absorb the shares from those who are selling regularly in blocks of 10k to 140k for 4 days. When I watched, which was often, 90% are seller.
When CLF could not take out 11.50 and the 50dma kept dropping, so did CLF. The other prodcuers are having a much better day today
You do not have to have heavy volume for this. Just watch real time blocks and it is very clear. Or, pull up a 10day chart with A/D, MACD, Momentum, RSI, Stochastic. yes, it is in distribution.
Watch real time and you will see everything large is selling with very little buying. My trading filters let me see what is happening. promise you.
Had you on ignore but your post came up anyways. So tell me one thing that is wrong. You seem to be the kind of person I would like to punch out.
ANyways, you are back on ignore so no need to respond.
shorts are adding, but they are pounding CLF and continue to do so.
No idea where it ends. Anyone's guess as to why the selling is going on is as good as any other reason. It's happening. That's all.
up. One trade in clf just went off at 19,900 shares sold for a 1cent drop.
Big block selling got unleashed when clf hit 11. Very similar to yesterdays trading. Funds seem to be reducing shares over the past 3 days. I am watch the trades real time to see how it is playing out and the buyers are small and in smaller qty
Who understand the UM Sentiment Survey at an incredible 89 reading just now. Contrast that to all the polling data of the number of people who think the country economically is in the crapper. Who are they surveying to get that read which is so opposite any other poll?
I have no idea how it plays out today. Down over 10% in 3 - 4 days and busted the lower channel of 10.50 in a dramatic way yesterday with major large block selling, ugly....
Anyways, the Io stocks picking up steam how
As I said many times before, this stuff won't help because it won't be enough given high supplies, increased production by the majors and a stimi that just won't change the dynamics by that much.
European GDP's were a little better this morning for Germany and France, not going into recession as was feared, and they still are selling IO today.
When you have to much production with no cuts backs planned, the prices go lower: Oil, IO, etc., as do the stocks.
recession levels, they were better than forecasted. So far IO stocks are down in pre-market along with European stocks.
He did a great job. My thought was all about how WS treated it.
LG is,speaking / presenting at Goldman Sachs conferee on November 19. I hope that goes better than his presentation earlier this week at another mining conference