Many of us have, some more than others. SURF is so committed to his interpretations for CLFs financials, that one decade from now he may be right and he will likely hold CLF until than to say I told you so.
In the meantime I will be long out of CLF and into many other trades that actually will work and I hope never make another mistake like CLf again.
I may consider CLF/materials stocks again, but only in a genuine commodity super-cycle. I won't hold my breath for that to happen, although that may be the same time SURF says I told you so.
One more note from the letter
It didn't always appear that Casablanca would need to run a hostile campaign. According to SEC filings posted by Casablanca, the fund believed a settlement with Cliffs was imminent in mid-March.
anticipation of a settlement...
With no settlement on the horizon, Cliffs and Casablanca sent their proposals to shareholders to vote on at the company's July 29 annual shareholder meeting.
For the fools who think CAS is shorting CLF...
For six months, Cliffs and Casablanca have battled over their competing strategies in what looks to be one of the thorniest activist investments in recent memory. If the price of iron ore has dropped nearly 50% since Cliffs signed its Consolidated Thompson deal, the company's shares have fallen almost as much since Casablanca disclosed its 5.2% stake in late January 2014.
is holding yesterdays close and CLF is also holding the close but has not had pre-market activity yet.
On 6/30, DDD trade up to $69 from $59 close prior day on 5X volume, and two days later gave it all back, and is now below that at $55, off rumors of a take over.
The action yesterday in IO was may have been a pop on RIO news and China data not being worse. Will it be sustainable?
You are sounding a little nuts of late.
The truth is you seem to be making up many of your conclusions, like yesterdays housing sentiment where you decided IO in the US will soar and CLF will rock on that news.
Every bank that reported this qtr said the same thing about their mortgage business being weaker. Yesterdays weekly lender index was low again. Sentiment index for one month is not something to build a trend on.
I am working on 5 houses now from $500K to $750K and one of them has steel in their structures. Granted they use nails, etc., but that does not drive IO high enough to matter and housing is still about half what it used to be.
Please, "reasonable facts, thoughts without facts. " You make yourself sound like a joke sometimes but you can be better than that.
Or maybe like I said a few times already today it was catch up as all those others are up 5 to 15 percent since mid March and clf was down 25% in same time frame. I do like how you see things just one way
Maybe some of it came off of RIO news and all IO producers being up today (where CLF has been down the most of its peers as a percentage). Some is likely from earnings and most of it may be with the pending vote.
Even if they still want to be short CLF on its fundamentals, it would be dangerous to take a chance with earnings coming up, a surprise by CLF ahead of the vote which they need to secure the vote, or by CAS winning it all.
13G is the shorter form. 13D only requires a brief explanation for taking a stake greater than 5% in a company (acquisition, proxy, undervalued stock, etc.).
My main point is you that we not draw conclusions on how the funds will vote their shares from those who already filed either of these forms when they already were long in CLF before CAS, which most have been. They do not need to revise a form if they change their minds about why they hold the stock or how they intend to vote
Probably going to be closer to 12m by days end at this pace. Very large volume today for CLF. How many were from those covering would be nice to know that number.
All they have to do is state the size if it is over a certain percentage and they do not have to say why. Show me the connection. It isn't there.
Activist Investors by and large have done better for companies and stocks than you give them credit for. In only a few instances (mostly just in the movies) they are bad for a company. Why you dislike what CAS suggests is beyond me, it really is.
While you know the numbers for CLF, your conclusions for the company and what that means for the stock price has been so far off base it amazes me you don't see it for yourself.
Let me ask you one question. Are you waiting for the day to prove your point to all of us on this board that CLF has the right plan to remedy the company and you will not entertain another outcome for CLF, or for an activist who just might have it right?
Exactly. A different case-in-point is DDD at end of June where it jumped in one day from $59 to $69.50 in one day on buyout rumors or whatever and is $56 today. It gave everything back very quickly, just as CLF has several times like you said.
We all want this stock to rise and stay. Most of us have a long way to go before we are whole.
Rarely does any stock hold an 8% gain on day.
I am long CLF and I share the same pain. That does not mean I won't contribute my views for CLF or the industry. To deny these facts is just as bad as hyping hope that has little or no material basis for happening.
I have held this view all year long and I have held my losses in CLF while waiting for CAS to give us the bump. I will bail on CLF as soon as I can. This will never be a long term holding for me again, unless there are signs of another super-cycle, which I can not see in my lifetime.
By-the-way, WS does not seem to care tight now about what I think, as they keep taking the indexes and stocks to newer all-time highs on a daily basis.
I am not talking about CLF specifically. All market indexes and most stocks are at all-time highs off an economy that has not grown more than 2% for 5 years running, where top-line rev growth has not grown anywhere, where every qtr has had S&P earnings estimates lowered, where near all gains have come from stock buybacks/mergers off of low interest rates. Now you tell me this isn't a thing to worry about?
Next story, CLF BOD and management team is out on new CAS plan.
because I agree with him so much. If WS gets this, watch the sell-off happen as WS is crazy right now about stocks and valuations in just about every asset class.
I have a hard time buying into that reason as being the driver for today. If they have a one-time earnings beat, will WS not see it as a one-off event for CLF? what do you think about that?
I still think CLf will guide 2014 down, so I can not see how this is the reason for the buying. As of now all the IO producers are at 2/3 or more of avg daily volumes while CLf has traded above it. CLF is also down 25% since March and all the others are up rom 5 - 15%. Still looks like CLF has so much more room to run than the others do.
You are right about the larger move in CLF, of which I am very happy about, but like I posted this morning in the pre-market that since mid-March all IO producers are up from 5% to 15% to date while CLF is down 25% in same time-frame. With this divergence, CLF has a lot more room to catch up and this may be the only reason CLF is doing better as a percentage.