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Caterpillar Inc. Message Board

imaginejml 362 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 17, 2014 12:37 PM Member since: Feb 21, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Any guesses on Yellens effect on CLF today

    by redhaw_2000 Sep 17, 2014 11:36 AM
    imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Sep 17, 2014 12:37 PM Flag

    who the heck knows anymore. Look what happened on WS yesterday after a reporter for the WSJ said Yellen will not likely change the language in the statement about keeping interest rates where they are for a considerable period of time. WS took the indexes to highs again on that one reporters conclusion. WS is so darn addicted to free money that the thought that one statement not changing drove the markets higher like they id when the days leading up to that had WS thinking she would remove the statement which drove stocks down.
    Now there is new news of China starting out on a QE program with their larger banks. The markets are as crazy as it gets in my view. The Russel is at lows along with a large portion of the S&P all have stocks trading below their 50day MA, but a few stocks in each of the major index continue to get all the money and this drives the indexes higher daily.
    People on WS do not believe anything can go down longer than 5 minutes because of QE and because of central bankers everywhere trying to get growth going in their countries.

    What does this day for IO, it spells trouble.

  • Reply to

    China Injects Liquidity Into Major Banks

    by w999surf Sep 16, 2014 4:00 PM
    imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Sep 17, 2014 2:28 AM Flag

    I Just read the same thing in an airport in Germany waiting for my connecting flight to Lisbon. The thought of every central bank in the world still doing some versions of QE for 6 years running to try and get some growth is scary.

    So now China will be printing more money and injecting it into its larger banks in hopes they wIll lend it out to stimulate their economy? How much longer before everything falls off the cliff?

    Tepid to non existent growth wherever you look other than the US for now, I just do not understand what props this up other than central bank interventions across the globe. If this stuff fails to work, what else can they do? Money is nearly free everywhere. We either general global growth or we have a bad global melt down again.

    Looks so much like desperation everywhere.

  • last 2 days, now up 9%.

    Was this rise on an oversold bump off of another 9 year low or is it something more significant? Really hard to know with CLF because there is no real trend for CLF other than continued distribution.

    The 10day chart shows very high momentum and a significant, strong change in MACD with better volume, all in the last two weeks. Did the sellers stop selling?

    Do not look at the chart for anything beyond 10 days as it may make you feel stupid for sticking with this #$%$ this long, as it does me.

  • Reply to

    I remember these 4.5% jumps

    by skittle12345 Sep 15, 2014 2:39 PM
    imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Sep 16, 2014 7:19 AM Flag

    not likely to see a 35% pop by month end without major news that is immediately impactful on the company and something that's sustainable. All recent news has had no positive impact for CLF sp.

  • imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Sep 15, 2014 10:19 AM Flag

    Vip

    I believe he will. I posted here the details of a telephone conversation that I had with Paulo of CLF IR Dept a few weeks ago, and I als9o posted a follow up to that on the next day after Paul emailed me back on a reply that I made that needed some clarification from his point-of-view.

    This means that he reads this board because Paul's follow-up email to me referenced my post on this board from the day before on an item I misstated. Otherwise, someone on this board could have cut-and-paced my thread and emailed it to him for confirmation. I suspect the former, not the later.

    Anyways, they seemed genuine on the message and making sure the message is clear, so I do hope he calls you back as Paul had done with me.

  • Reply to

    Chaos in Board Room ...

    by wmladow Sep 10, 2014 12:00 PM
    imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Sep 10, 2014 10:15 PM Flag

    Not necessarily so. Anyone part of the last team can go away. I do not want them making more decisions. Heck, most of them did not have a stake in the company while they were deciding a course of direction for the company. Good friggin buy.

  • imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Sep 9, 2014 6:43 PM Flag

    Was not able to follow it today. What made it pop to over 14? Just an oversold bounce?

    I fractured my hand today and spent most of it in our wonderful medical system.

  • imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Sep 9, 2014 6:39 PM Flag

    please repost or paste your outline if you do not mind, as I must have missed it.

  • imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Sep 9, 2014 8:48 AM Flag

    P.S.
    CAS is down close to 50% on his stake in CLF, and he has not been able to take on the shorts so far, which I am certain he would like to do, and he should be uniquely qualified to accomplish this is a hedge fund guy.

    He knows how the game works better than us and nothing he can say will change the story for now.

  • imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Sep 9, 2014 8:39 AM Flag

    Surf

    In all sincerity, what does a campaign to address the shorts look like to you, and how does it change the price movement in CLF?

    What can CLF say to change the narrative right now, as the primary drivers of why the shorts remain hasn't changed for CLF.

    CLF announced its plan to sell assets and they announced buyback intentions as well. These are the things we have waited for all along, now maybe too long. WS and the shorts are not as dumb as you imply. They do not see a favorable outcome or outlook for CLF, and I am beginning to feel the same way.

    I never imagined bankruptcy for the company, but this may become a likelihood for CLF. Things are dour and dark with reasons. A campaign by CLF to address the reasons why the shorts are wrong does not work here, just my view.

  • imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Sep 8, 2014 6:32 PM Flag

    How can it hurt? Seriously?

    We have depressed IO pricing and surplus inventories by the major producers, who are also killing themselves right now under whatever motivations they have to see this go lower (shake out the weaker players maybe). Coal is cursed. CAS has not given anyone reasons to cover or for WS to buy. The promises made to sell assets and buy back shares to turn the company around on day 1 was met with absolute doubt, all proven by a slumping stock price hovering near a 9 year low.

    It is sick stuff, isn't it?

    I only wonder if they lied for the vote or are they as inept as the prior team was?

    I do not think the old team would be fare any better and maybe worse, but who knows?. Time to admit the obvious, which I did last week when I sold my postion in my regular acct. I kept the psotion in my IRA acct as the avg share price for that is $17. Even that stake is killing me now.

    Back to being sick stuff and CAS, id he is hurting as we are, he should say something about the unfulfilled promises they made, even if they can not change the direction of the share price. He pled, he begegd for the vote, now he seems to have bailed out on us.

  • Reply to

    From Cliffs web Site "COMMON SHARES REPURCHASE"

    by w.jim43 Sep 8, 2014 5:15 PM
    imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Sep 8, 2014 5:18 PM Flag

    If you read my post last week, followig my conversation with Paul of IR, they do not have this set up yet with the banks and do not know when it will be in place.

  • change the narrative for the shorts. CLF must sell stuff at whatever price or they may have to declare bankruptcy (I never though this before, but it should be considered now) for these reasons:

    Global GDP does not suggest higher IO prices anytime soon to save CLF.

    I also said for many many months that the world economies are not strong, that China will not stimulate itself to greater growth, that Europe/Japan were slow and the data of late is showing this, and the globe also has multi-century low interest rates everywhere which also implieis things are not improving. The world still needs QE and zero rates and Central Govn help to barely stay afloat.

    There is nothing that shows good things for CLF near-term or longer term.

    Maybe CAS was stupid in his views on the turn-around story or maybe he lied to get our votes.

    The fact CAS says nothing about the decline or that WS has not said much about the story either tells us there is little to hang our hopes on.

  • Reply to

    Get ready for a DUMP

    by basicknowledge Sep 8, 2014 8:56 AM
    imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Sep 8, 2014 11:00 AM Flag

    Insiders have sold a ton of shares throughout August between 72 - 75.
    FB up 45% in two months or less.
    Evaluation extreem.
    Buying does not make sense but it is happening.

  • Reply to

    Get ready for a DUMP

    by basicknowledge Sep 8, 2014 8:56 AM
    imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Sep 8, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    It's not just FB. Look at TSLA where Musk said last week the price was too high for todays fundamentals. It sold off and now traders are ignoring the news and buying it again. Similar story with GILD on a knock down on lower pricing, now that news is ignored and they are buying it up again.

    I said last week FB might go down on Alibaba as they would sell it to collect money for that IPO.

    There are a few stocks being bought heavily on index without any thought it seems, and FB is on top of the list. No one can continence me the valuations are deserved on a hope where FB might be 5 years from now.
    As someone eagerly buys the shares, others are happily selling them.

  • imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Sep 8, 2014 9:51 AM Flag

    You got it right, VIP. Surf is so stuck on his own analysis he doesn't see anything else.

  • Reply to

    Low Iron Ore Prices

    by w999surf Sep 5, 2014 10:01 AM
    imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Sep 5, 2014 4:15 PM Flag

    Take a good look at the chart and you will clearly see that it is in sever distribution still, even here at this low level. In the past our best bump off of $14 was not too much. Without news of a buyer, CLF goes to $16 and sells off. We haven't seen 420 in a long time.

  • imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Sep 5, 2014 4:01 PM Flag

    But for now what may cause a drop in FB is heavy selling to buy Alibaba. WS had a double in FB over the last year and its valuation is rather rich. Take good profits and start the madness all over in the next IPO

  • Reply to

    Low Iron Ore Prices

    by w999surf Sep 5, 2014 10:01 AM
    imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Sep 5, 2014 3:59 PM Flag

    How long do you want to wait? Share prices cut in half since last fall and IO pricing was much much higher than it is now, so how do you blame this one on IO pricing? CLF is a mistake.

  • imaginejml@sbcglobal.net imaginejml Sep 5, 2014 3:36 PM Flag

    Same thoughts here. Even on the low volume FB is trading on, you likely have the smarter investors gladly selling every share to the stupid investors (including the funds who missed the boat) who are eagerly buying those shares with no consideration to valuation. It is killing me watching this though. Look at what is happening to the primary momentum plays. This is about as nuts as its ever been.

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