i have told you many times. I am no short. I would never short a stock because of the risk. I bought into the forward looking statements made by Raj in 2012 including fall of 2012 and Dec 2012 (propthink interview) esp on Fusilev where he was still forecasting growth for Fusilev. Besides he made rosy statements on folotyn and zevalin. I was suckered. I purchased my shares at $12.5 in Aug 2012. coincidentally CEO sold shares around $12.5 same time (10-5b sales). Fsilev forecast was conveniently revised downwards by 40% through an after market 8k without even a detailed explanation as to what went wrong with their forecast. I couldnt believe how somebody could do this. Keep in mind in at least a dozen conf call i had listened to Raj was downplaying (understatement) risk to fusilev sales and was only forecasting growth. I lost ton of my life savings.
Besides I suspect the whole thing to be a scheme and some shorts knew what was happening and what was coming. Have no evidence who was involved in this scheme.
Now tell me your story. Why do you defend Raj and the "impressive" growth potential of Fusilev, folotyn and zevalin. Also "impressive" pipeline. Do you get paid to do so ? If yes, do you know it is illegal ?
Well, I don't care much for analysts or this dilbert guy...
I do care and hope a minority shareholder gets on the board.
ce_melphalan_hammer (seems like a new id - which makes me feel he is getting bonuses from his boss for new ids )
how so ? Analyst firms in many instances have conflict of interest.....which they identify in footnote...if i had it, i would make it the HEADLINE....like below before they release any target price or Buy, etc
"XYZ rates ABC stock Target Price $9 STRONG BUY....Pls note XYZ is getting IB Business from ABC....Plus ABC Management may sell stock in future"
and you are seriously underestimating the loss you have caused to shareholders. could we say $100m or more ? On March 2013 shorts benefited about 5$ x 12m shares or 60 million dollars or possibly more in what i highly suspect looked like a "scheme"....
Fusilev will grow from its 2012 base. Generic supply will not impact fusilev. One more generic entry does not matter for fusilev. Clinical studies have proved fusilev to be more safe than leucovorin.
It is my contention this hyped the stock to be at $12.5 until March 2013. Through out fall of 2012 short selling was relentless when those statements were being made.
stellar results, stock price declines and continues to trade at 50% discount. now they will do buyback with all frustrated shareholders and increase their stake. way to go!
As you and your advisors are well aware, many transactions have taken place in our space, including several with lesser quality players and much more robust valuations than what you expressed. I believe that the grossly insufficient valuation you have presented can only be attributed to a lack of real commitment to pursuing this transaction.
As we have communicated many times to the public, our shareholders and other stakeholders, our Board and management are not, and will never be, entrenched; however, that does not mean we will entertain offers that grossly undervalue our Company. Our Board will certainly not consider engaging in discussions to sell the Company unless the starting point of the discussions is significantly in excess of $100 per share. This valuation is consistent with a best-in-class asset such as Mylan and with one that has a strong foothold in India, which provides a highly competitive cost structure and a strong backbone for growth. Similar acquisitions in recent history in the specialty and generics industry that were transformational and included best-in-class assets with significant growth prospects have had an average LTM EBITDA multiple of approximately 20x. 2 Generic manufacturers with a large Indian component have had an even higher average multiple at approximately 25x.3 In stark contrast, your expression of interest values Mylan at approximately 16.6x EBITDA
Applying the Agila transaction EV to EBITDA multiple Taro is $280 stock. I just hope Taro's minority can get 1 minority shareholder on the Board in the interest of promoting representation for minority and good corp governance. That could also help stock price to reach its fair potential in my view
1) While price hikes have been main reason for Ebitda growth, the one story that has been proven over the last 5 years is Taro continuing to find new products for price hikes and being able to grow EBITDA. While competition enters products by 2-3 years and puts pricing pressure, Taro finds news products in its 200 product portfolio for price hikes.
2) Now there are launches going to happen from the growing basket of 35 Complex ANDA and 1 NDA which will also be ripe for Price hikes in the coming years ? Also, Taro ANDA filing rate has accelerated (5 in last quarter)..
3) What about the unreasonable cash hoard and almost zero debt ? Couldn't this be used to drive EBITDA by another $150-$200m ?
4) What about Novexatin which if successful could hit the market by 2018 and could cannibalize the $6b onychomycosis market based on its superior efficacy ?
So in summary on EBITDA sustainability and growth, my view is Taro may experience some rocky quarters but the long term trend is EBITDA growth
Mylan Paid 20X for Agila a Niche generic Pharma. Mylan Board recently also quoted
QUOTE Average LTM EBITDA multiple based on the following transactions: Pfizer's announced acquisition of Hospira (5-Feb-2015), Actavis' announced acquisition of Allergan (17-Nov-2014), Actavis' announced acquisition of Forest Laboratories (18-Feb-2014), Teva's announced acquisition of Barr Pharmaceuticals (18-Jul-2008), Fresenius' announced acquisition of APP (7-Jul-2008), Mylan's announced acquisition of Merck KGaA (12-May-2007) and Novator Partners' announced acquisition of Actavis (10-May-20107).
3 Average LTM EBITDA multiple based on the following transactions: Sun Pharma's announced acquisition of Ranbaxy (6-Apr-2014), Mylan's announced acquisition of Strides Arcolab's Agila Specialties Injectables Unit (27-Feb-2013), Abbott Laboratories' announced acquisition of Piramal's Domestic Formulation Business (21-May-2010) and Daiichi Sankyo's announced acquisition of Ranbaxy (11-Jun-2008).
These ids are again relentlessly defending raj. Truly Shameless guy to come here on message board with 100 diff ids and posting his agenda. I just wonder how much this guy gets paid
and at least 6 other ids
I think I deleted one of my posts because I don't want to sound "irresponsible".
All other 5 replies are still there. You just have to go to "messages" and NOT "topics"
Quite honestly I just cannot believe that such an allegation can be true. ? But I do like to understand their rationale..may we need to find out the owners and ask them for an open letter from 3.9m share holder(s) explaining who they are, source of funds, why they voted the way they did or why they wanted ilana and biran as independent dirs who had readily agreed to sell their (yes their shares!) at 39.5 dollars
how could mgmt which had give fusilev growth forecasts in more than dozen conf calls, release an after market shocker 8k revising growth forecast to -ve40% without even a conf call ?
That shocker (after market 8k to revise growth forecast to -ve40%) made ton of people including me to sell shares which shorts conveniently would have covered. this smells like a scheme.
joe - i am not short as you are well aware. I lost ton of my savings listening to all those horrible growth forecasts of fusilev and other drugs. I strongly suspect bigger scheme here with Shorts and other 'people'. But I have no evidence. can you ask Raj if he knows shorts ? because in Aug 2012 there was relentless short selling ...same time when growth forecasts for fusilev was being made and as well rosy stories on zevalin and folotyn were provided.
yekafena, pls google stocks dd. Please sign the petition that I intend to submit to regulators. I am advocating Shareholder day and Pledge of ethics by BOD to be taken on that day in ALL public companies