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Cempra Inc Message Board

imho_dyodd 102 posts  |  Last Activity: May 19, 2016 9:38 PM Member since: Jul 19, 2012
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  • Reply to

    OT: Rahul

    by imho_dyodd May 17, 2016 9:10 PM
    imho_dyodd imho_dyodd May 19, 2016 9:38 PM Flag

    I wish things were as straight forward as you and your carnival barker friend moy try to spin it. I'll look forward to hear your pointed questions in the cc.

    Taro over the years has provided rocket fuel for sun(by virtue of taros strong results n taros unusually negagive leveraged balance sheet consolidated. under sun) to make acquisitions including the Merck's psoriasis p3 drug they bought for $80m+p3+regulatory cost which analysts are forecasting peak sales of $400 per year.

  • We see pricing pressures on individual products as more competition comes. But that's offset generally by product launches. We don't really see anything in the winds that have dramatically changed any pricing pressures in the environment. We have said that probably for two quarters now. And we have now heard other people starting to step up and say many of the same things Taro and Mylan and others describe the scenario fairly similarly on their calls

    Read the question & answer. Interesting question alludes to getting bigger(merger?) & Interesting answer involves taro n mylan

  • imho_dyodd imho_dyodd May 18, 2016 11:48 PM Flag

    why do you think ipxl is up for sale ?
    has the company said in the past they are looking at sale transaction ?
    who do you think are the suitors ? where do you source your rumor ? i see you posted in taro msg board

  • Reply to

    OT: Rahul

    by imho_dyodd May 17, 2016 9:10 PM
    imho_dyodd imho_dyodd May 18, 2016 11:03 PM Flag

    Rahul - What is your "fair value" estimate on the 2-derma product Anacor w hardly any sales that was sold for $5.2b 2 days ago ? Pls share. And then how would you value taro ?

    Have you seen the earnings call transcripts of AKRX ? Have you seen how much detail they disclose to stakeholders.
    How can you throw "fair value" when there is not much info given out to stakeholders esp on future projects/potential. Do you know anything on Novexatin phase 2 that was completed on April 19th (per clinical trial site). Do you know anything on Atopic derm project that i believe Kal alluded to a year or so back. also, Any plan to tap Europe in future. Also, the $250m investment into Brampton that purpotedly going to increase their speed to market.

    This reminds of something in the past. I knew a private business where partners feuded and there was huge distrust between and finally 1 partner decided to sell. But not before he surreptitiously interviewed every F employee to see what projects each employee was doing to understand value and future potential of every aspect of this business.

  • imho_dyodd by imho_dyodd May 17, 2016 9:10 PM Flag

    so are you going to try asking questions in the conf call ?
    any "activist investor" who can talk on cnbc ?
    it seems you lowered your "fair value" by 35%!? was this factoring in any market data or your emotions ?

  • imho_dyodd imho_dyodd May 17, 2016 8:45 PM Flag

    henderson, why don't you email to the taro management the earnings transcripts from the recently concluded AKRX conf call. See the amount of detail that is disclosed to its stakeholders. This is the way it should be..Also see AKRX investor preso on its web site. Now try digging this kind of info or expecting this detail from our company.

  • imho_dyodd imho_dyodd May 17, 2016 10:04 AM Flag

    Possibly. But you'll never know if there was confdtl agreement.

    Iszo doesn't seem to have made any investment with TARO sale proceeds until March 31st(so really doubt they sold in Jan). Many of his other investments haven't done well...I have been iam really surprised behind logic of investing in mnkd!

  • imho_dyodd imho_dyodd May 17, 2016 5:03 AM Flag

    Is it possible iszo sold his shares in the buyback in a negotiated transaction with significantly higher price per share ? Remember the buyback PR said they could get into negotiated transaction to buy shares . everyone can guess how badly dulip wanted iszo out forever ? Maybe there was a confidentual settlement agreement. .all of this is my guesses based on gumption

  • imho_dyodd imho_dyodd May 16, 2016 9:24 PM Flag

    Strange thing. I look at whale wisdom for iszo, I don't see any big investments in the quarter for iszo. So does it mean the proceeds from taro share sale for iszo is yet to be invested (or at least until march 31)?

  • imho_dyodd imho_dyodd May 16, 2016 9:15 PM Flag

    my sincere opinion, i believe you are undervaluing the market leader in derma science and those israeli brains. Until we know all the research projects inlcuding the AD one they alluded to, the potential outcome of the $250m brampton plant investment, novexatin, etc how can you even arrive at any value ? Just look at how much Pfizer was willing to pay for anacor $5.2b...and look its sales! Taro is a market leader in derm and a reputed brand in US. Dont underestimate the capability of Israeli science.

  • jrhenderson- your disregarding the high potential of research projects at taro including novexatin and i also believe in one the calls(i think it was in May 2015 call) they alluded to a project on AD. Taro is a research leader in derm. I wouldn't be surprised in a few years it would be organically (from its israel or canada research centers) produce the best treatments for AD or Onych. You gotta factor this in valuation. There is very little info we know about what they are doing in R&D. I am sure somebody may know all this! Information on these research projects is key to valuation as much as vested interest may pooh pooh it.

  • imho_dyodd imho_dyodd May 16, 2016 8:55 PM Flag

    Very bad news. Either he didn't see value at this price (which is hard to believe despite expected more competition) or he just was frustrated with mgmt....... In any case this is very very bad news for minority.

    Could thete have been some fireworks by the mumbai seashore?

  • Reply to

    Taro has a new biggest institutional holder

    by valery164 Apr 14, 2016 4:44 PM
    imho_dyodd imho_dyodd May 15, 2016 11:12 PM Flag

    Iszo yet to file I guess? Iszo has been reducing last few it will be interesting to see what he wd have done...

  • Reply to

    Sun phase 3 psoriasis drug results succesful

    by imho_dyodd May 5, 2016 2:38 AM
    imho_dyodd imho_dyodd May 6, 2016 9:19 PM Flag

    Rahul, you seem to know more than anyone. Surely you should also know an "activist investor" who can talk on CNBC.
    No matter who is in control IMHO, Ind dirs have a duty to all shareholders which includes absentee shareholder like you. I would be curious to see if this psoriasis drug inlicesing was even discussed by board and what Ind dirs had to say. One wd think TARO had opportunity to evaluate this asset.

    about time to clean this topic

    BTW I have never heard of share buyback(Kal called it most efficient way of "giving back" to shareholder s) where share price declines on huge volumes.

  • Reply to

    Sun phase 3 psoriasis drug results succesful

    by imho_dyodd May 5, 2016 2:38 AM
    imho_dyodd imho_dyodd May 6, 2016 10:32 AM Flag

    It's time to sell....they clearly have not made any significant investment w $1.2b cash for long time.
    I was hoping they will make it this quarter. But zilch.
    Sun meanwhile has made 6-7 significant investments , taken on debt. If I was independent dir I would have asked TARO to outbid sun when they inlicensed psoriasis p3 for $80m n funding p3......also dusa another derma asset.
    Stock price went down from $160 to $130 in 2 years. Sun is going to prosper with $400m per year for its what $80+$100m(?) Investment.

  • Reply to

    Sun phase 3 psoriasis drug results succesful

    by imho_dyodd May 5, 2016 2:38 AM
    imho_dyodd imho_dyodd May 5, 2016 10:09 PM Flag

    That is not my point of the post. Why couldn't the directors in Taro outbid SUN in the race to in-license this lucrative Merck's Psoriasis drug ? It was very affordable to Taro. Taro has deep expertise in DERMATOLOGY and psoriasis. It was a risk-mitigated drug undergoing Phase 3, all Taro had to shell out upfront was $80m and fund its ongoing phase 3. Taro had over $700m i think at the time with zero debt (sun already had debt). Now the same drug is very likely to bring in revenue of over $300m a year.

    Did even Taro review this deal ? Did they even bid for it ?

    Its just disappointing and frustrating. We have $1.3b in cash and we can't make investments like Sun has been doing in the last 3-4 years.

  • Reply to

    Sun phase 3 psoriasis drug results succesful

    by imho_dyodd May 5, 2016 2:38 AM
    imho_dyodd imho_dyodd May 5, 2016 8:58 AM Flag

    appears credit suisse warned of more competition in TARO and gave rosy outlook on sun's non-taro business: $500m peak sales for merk psoriasis drug that sun inlicensed.
    Funds are likely selling based on cs report..ysdays volume of 450k

  • Wonder what f happened w novexatin p2.
    Sun also is starting funding of dengue clinical and says it takes 4 years to complete all clinical trials.
    In case of novexatin drug was unlicensed in Aug 2013...hmmmm

  • imho_dyodd imho_dyodd Apr 26, 2016 10:59 AM Flag

    Possible. Volume has been massive n price just seems to decline

  • No study results posted yet. So I think it is reasonable some data (even if topline) maybe published.
    interesting the site says
    Study Completion Date: January 2016
    Primary Completion Date: January 2016 (Final data collection date for primary outcome measure)
    Now yesterdays volume was 450k??

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