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Trius Therapeutics, Inc. (TSRX) Message Board

imho_dyodd 126 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 16, 2014 8:58 AM Member since: Jul 19, 2012
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  • can anybody explain why this is trading at $140? At 18 times(the agila multiple) annualized most recent quarter ebitda the stock price should be $280. Assuming ttm ebitda and applying 18 times we still get $215.

    market is discounting novexatin and european market value for taro's portfolio.

  • Reply to

    Sun Pharma Q2 FY15 Call Transcript

    by doodhaa Nov 19, 2014 6:05 PM
    imho_dyodd imho_dyodd Nov 19, 2014 9:32 PM Flag

    so?

  • you can find the article under Investors unite org. thank you.
    Collectively we can make our voice heard

  • Reply to

    Undervaluation

    by imho_dyodd Nov 17, 2014 11:39 AM
    imho_dyodd imho_dyodd Nov 18, 2014 1:09 AM Flag

    Even using only $464m as the sustainable ebitda (q3 annualized is $656m) and applying the precedent comparable transaction multiple of Agila-Mylan transaction of Ev to Ebitda of 18, we get a value of $212 per share. Don;t understand why it trades at $147 per share.

    But i have a feeling that price hikes will sustain at least for 2-3 years (well, i am human and i could be wrong). As we have noticed in the past even when competition reenters , they reenter with taro's new price. there is a reason for this and it is explained well in Lannet's most recent quarterly conference call. I encourage investors to listen to it. Plus getting new supply will likely require site approvals and such ...and much longer FDA wait.

    Also, notice pipeline launches in 2016, 2017 are good.

    Also, the thesis that has been validated in the last few years is Taro continues to find product or two for price hikes in its diversified basket. So what if competition enters the ones where they previously took price hikes...they will likely always find a product or two to make up for the slack in the ones where competition has entered after hikes.

    Don't forget the $700m cash and growing.

  • imho_dyodd by imho_dyodd Nov 17, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    Annualized ebitda 164*4=$656m

    Taro is trading around 8.6 times ebitda (assuming price increase sustains. For other products price increases have sustained in the past). Also listen to Lannet's conf call, they have explained the rational of market players when it comes to price increases. existing players are somewhat tied in terms of how they react to price increase. so they inevitably follow suit .

    A low-competition business like taro normally trades around 15 times ebitda ...see perrigo, actavis,

    So taro continues trading at significant discounts...much to our disappointment.

  • Taro drives Sun’s performance
    November 13, 2014:
    Sun Pharma’s operating profit margin improved by 1.9 per cent to 45.7 per cent in the September quarter, thanks to the strong performance by its subsidiary Taro Pharma. The good showing was despite higher integration and compliance costs pertaining to Ranbaxy acquisition.

    Taro posted a strong 22 per cent growth in revenue for the quarter. Its operating profit margin vaulted to 65.5 per cent in September 2014, from 60.6 per cent during the same period last year. This was helped by upward revision in the prices of select drugs in the US. This more than compensated for the marginal decline in volumes. The benefit from higher drug prices should continue in the December quarter too. Taro has filed for five products so far this year and has received approval for three products.
    Strong performance by Taro more than compensated for the weakness in Sun’s US business due to expiry of exclusivity for Novo Nordisk’s anti-diabetes drug Prandin and lower sales of former’s anti-cancer drug Doxil.

  • imho_dyodd by imho_dyodd Nov 13, 2014 11:33 PM Flag

    Seems suspicious..but in any case very convenient for another buyback....although I love buybacks in this case I am not because of decreased liquidity and the resulting benefit for majority share holder

    They need to start buying great assets like dusa and Merck's derma asset.
    this is the best way to reduce risk, use cash, improve valuation and thereby add value for shareholders. Come on guys cash will soon be at $1 billion dollars in a quarter or two

  • taro -had $500-$600m cash ?

  • Reply to

    CS - TP=190 OUTPERFORM

    by doodhaa Nov 11, 2014 1:37 PM
    imho_dyodd imho_dyodd Nov 11, 2014 9:20 PM Flag

    Hello Rahul,

    Your criticism is not justified , esp now. are you still bitter about the minority offers from 2-3 years ago.
    Sun management(taro) with those minority "offers" from 2- years ago has brought upon itself the "goodwill" that you represent .

    Since Sun took controlling stake in Taro, share price has nearly increase 10-Fold in ~4 years. What do you say to that ? Of course Sun has benefited from Taro's strong show. And of course Taro could have done more with its cash.

    But quite honestly , I expect taro to truly grow the business(not just price adj) in the next year or so...esp with that huge cash. Shanghvi is good for shareholders. And i think he will do the right thing. Pipeline may have some big opportunities...they have not revealed much there .

  • imho_dyodd by imho_dyodd Nov 11, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

    hoping no more offer to buy minority . But with this kind of cash accumulation, i guess the intent can be seen. There is so much potential in the pipeline including novexatin ....don't want to sell my shares at such cheap prices and cheap valuation.

  • thought the call was good

    1. the pipeline is looking good: acne, atopic dermatitis, onychomycosis
    2. possibility of another buy back?
    3. possibility of getting into European markets

  • Reply to

    Quarter

    by driver_ch Nov 9, 2014 12:00 PM
    imho_dyodd imho_dyodd Nov 9, 2014 9:32 PM Flag

    cash at $682.5 million as of 09/30. So definitely well over $700m by now.
    Interesting to see what they plan to do with this cash pile.

  • Reply to

    Quarter

    by driver_ch Nov 9, 2014 12:00 PM
    imho_dyodd imho_dyodd Nov 9, 2014 9:27 PM Flag

    Great quarter as usual since Sun took over. Story primarily has been price increases. This time Clobex price increase is likely significant factor i think. But management needs to lower the risk for shareholders by acquiring new products and getting into ROW markets. One good sign is there 30 ANDAs waiting approval
    .
    Happy to be a shareholder. Earnings call will get it some more wall street attention. Positive for shareholders.

  • I guess I may not be able to attend. However, if any of you plan to attend, I would be interested in mgmt response to the following questions

    1. Is there any plan to sell Taro's products in Rest-of-World (ROW) markets (ex-USA,ex-CAN,ex-Israel,ex-UK) ? I am talking about markets like Japan, Western & Eastern Europe, Russia, Australia, South Africa and the high growth markets like China, India, Brazil and Latin america.

    2. What is the plan for the growing cash. Other than Novexatin, I have not heard of any inorganic acquisition (I could be wrong) in the last 2 years. Why isn't the company aggressively pursuing acquisition of late stage pipeline or marketed assets ? Perrigo has made more than half dozen big ticket acquisitions in last 2-3 years and they have firmly established themselves in the OTC space.

    3. How is the Novexatin development going? Can you share timelines for p2 completion & p3?

    4. Is there any plan to attend some investor conferences in the future ?

    5. Would the company be supportive to add minority holder (or nominee) to board in future and thereby provide representation to minority ? It is my understanding that presently none of BOD members are nominees from minority.

  • imho_dyodd imho_dyodd Oct 17, 2014 6:34 AM Flag

    yes. Ackman's case is NOT in lambert's court as far as i know

  • imho_dyodd imho_dyodd Oct 16, 2014 12:57 PM Flag

    do you have any evidence?

  • Reply to

    Shareholders Join Investor Unite

    by imho_dyodd Oct 14, 2014 11:19 AM
    imho_dyodd imho_dyodd Oct 14, 2014 12:29 PM Flag

    please register. Investor unite would like to publish opinions of fairness (lack there of) and the arbitrariness of third amendment from individual shareholders

  • If you are pre-2008 shareholder, please google "investor unite" and join that site. It takes 15 secs ..However it will do you and other shareholders a world of good

  • Reply to

    Chronology of things to come $5 soon

    by imho_dyodd Oct 13, 2014 10:39 PM
    imho_dyodd imho_dyodd Oct 14, 2014 10:20 AM Flag

    mark my words friends

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