so you think they are going to telegraph the end of the world? sure, there are some people who will not take the bait, but there are lots more who have been scared to the sidelines and even more buying puts against the market--that's the only real problem with the the "greek endgame"... if it's one thing "they" are good at, it's maximizing profits, and getting even a few people bearish before tanking the market is not the smartest way to achieve that.
while that Grexit scenario is likely to come true soon, I look for news of "all woes have been cured" first, wait for a rally, and then look for shorting the pig (or is it PIIGS?)
tomorrow looks like a red day (potentially very red day), however, my indicators are a bit mixed... I should get a better idea early in the day depending on what they do with the futures, so not a confident prediction at this point.
from a longer term viewpoint (weekly), what is more interesting is that the US$ looks like it is absolutely ready to put in an intermediate top while the EURO is set to put in an a bottom! The only scenario I can think of is that, US$ goes up on Friday, dragging SPX down, and Euro falls, and then NEXT WEEK all the fear is instantly zapped out of the market--Euro rallies, US$ has a strong pullback, and US stocks breakout to new highs.
It doesn't seem logical with all that is going on in the macro environment, but remember, this is all a game designed to funnel money out of the hands of gamblers in the short-run, investors in the medium run, and hard-working producers (citizens) in the long run (and sovereignties in the very long run)
I had a sell order placed at 32cents.. I just got my first break at work as the autoclave machine was not woring this mroning... regretably could've gotten more for these, but that is the price I pay for a having a FT job.. I actually did not get the move I was looking for, so I am satisfied with this.. will look to use the profits somewhere else today if I can find some time
the bigger question is, does the inverse correlation with stocks hold, or does it take stocks down with it? if the latter, then a new paradigm is finally upon us... gold also looks ready to bottom this week... I have a couple 15month no interest credit cards that I will start using to buy the physical metals.
yeah, used to be par for the course on these boards up until a few years ago where there is more stupid discussion about irrelevant topics than actual trading posts... hopefully it starts a trend, but I doubt it.
at 16pennies each--short-term indicators stretched, not quite to max levels but close enough. I suspect most bears are on the sidelines right now and bulls are diving in... tiny stair steps up, and elevator drops down
rate hike talk is just a diversion... if they are self-generating the fear, then there is nothing really to fear... it is only when things are quiet when black swans appear
you mean the inflation of the balloon? the pop itself will happen almost overnight.
that would be 142.52--the opening gap of the 2013 new year was never filled, along with at least a half dozen more along the way (somebody can check this)... A 33% decline in the market would take us back to a level that is more reasonable with stock valuations (yet still overvalued if considering money supply expansion)... they can take back 2.5 years of a fake 50% rally in a matter of less than 3-6 months... now, I originally had 215 tagged as a must hit target, but indicators are really weak right now--not sure if this finding here is a coincidence or not, but at this point..
...it's not worth it to hold out for the extra few bucks... expecting a bounce tomorrow at some point, albeit weak, and then scale into puts, leaving some ammo in case this market has another leg up left in it.
Very good. You have finally figured out how it is possible for a single entity to control ALL of the fiat money in the world, and that is precisely the case--but that should've been intuitively obvious.
Now that said, you do make an error when you say "it would not matter how many trades you won or lost in the short term"--even with a 2% STATISTICAL advantage, you could easily lose ALL of your money on the first few or even first bet if you do not make your wagers judicially. Your 2% advantage would only manifest itself to complete dominance IF all other factors were held equal, which typically they are not.
poorly orchestrated market... if their goal is a major correction, why have they slowly flashed cracks over the past several weeks/months to get everybody bearish? even retail, who was gung ho bullish up until a month or so ago, is starting to have doubts... the worst thing that could happen is continued "chop" for another few weeks.
I agree. Was really on the fence with the puts I bought late in the day, but it is kind of a dice roll here. My indicators are allowing for a modicum of a bounce, but not much... I am hoping for a strong bounce, however, because that would clear my weekly-monthly indicator to max overbought levels, and then it is full on short---still not getting that big short signal I've been waiting a week for tho.
agreed, but those who daytrade might want to know... looks like it is playing out exactly as expected--now, the quesition is how high? I'll watch if I get the time today
not sure how much of a dip (if any) we'll get tomorrow, but whatever it is, the rigged market will continue to buy it... they have done a helluva job the past few days and overnight today clearing short-term overbought conditions, to the point where it is now almost OVERSOLD... go figure.
however, this is exactly what we predicted going back to late April... I still expect a massive and quick correction sometime soon. Remember, 215 is a definite, but if they really wanted to, they could push this out to 222, which means no correction for at least another few weeks.
one of my indicators says 215.01 could nail the top and it would happen on 5/21/15, with the sell-off to begin Friday, culminating in a Black Tuesday type event on 5/26/15.
not really... they are just clearing out what's left of the short-term overbought conditions--if they go ahead and sell it off early tomorrow, that should be the short-term bottom. VIX is nearly short-term tapped out, and a nice little sell off would actually get us to oversold conditions.
I think there is no doubt that 215 is a mark they need to make, but if it breaks 217, they could take it as high as 222.
Why do governments spend hundreds of millions of dollars on something any rational person can figure out just by careful scrutiny of daily market action. Of course, certain people of these MB love to proclaim markets are not rigged.
POTUS has no authority over Fed policy. Fed dictates to POTUS, not the other way around.