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inayden 2 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 21, 2014 12:39 AM Member since: Aug 17, 2013
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  • inayden Mar 21, 2014 12:39 AM Flag

    I agree with looking at the Macro picture. It's like building a wonderful house on a sink-hole. Interesting article in a past Barron's issue regarding China's shadow banking system resembling the Lehman Brother's pre-crisis; although the Chinese are trying to tap on the brakes a bit and can more easily inject liquidity as they learned from the crisis. The more important picture is the manipulation of gold prices lower despite increased demand by the Chinese and Asia in general. They are holding a depreciating asset in the from of USD and are gradually trading USD for gold. There is a serious risk of a USD crash. They know it. When the debt-service is beyond a certain point there is a risk of default. It is well beyond a safe level as a ratio to GDP. They know true unemployment should be measured at U6. We are not yet at the critical levels of Greece but we are going in that direction.

  • Look at the chart formations versus the Macro view. Estimates are just that. If people don't have the money to spend..they won't. They will wait until the DVD. Higher interest rates hurt spending. Tapering plus China dumping equals a nice sized correction.

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