Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Sequenom Inc. Message Board

individuaione 84 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 15, 2015 2:43 PM Member since: Aug 29, 2002
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • individuaione by individuaione Apr 15, 2015 2:43 PM Flag

    The big reveal? I think it will point to quite a bit for SEQ. Will CAFC drop on the same day? It could be one of those rare, 2 catalysts in one day kind of day avalanches.

    IF Roche's NIPT business is truely in the toilet due to many factors, ILMN should be reporting that the pooling method is returning very good results and the forecast is for greater growth.

    Then, after a slight pause, SEQ can announce its Q results in first week of May. I think they are profitable on one time events ( $6M ILMN pay in jan.15)
    Indy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • individuaione individuaione Apr 14, 2015 6:13 PM Flag

    Ridge- yes indeed, there is a huge speculation going on. However, the collapse of that speculation is also lurking. Think about this, 63% of yesterdays vol. were short trades. Man, this pivot potential has turned into a sort of defense of the entire short premise because damages mean a buy out by someone. And it won't be cheap.

    In other speculations, I believe SEQ posts a profit this qtr. Sure it might be based on one time gains ( $6M from ILMN in early Jan.) but it builds the bridge to real operating profits based on: new tests, patent pool filling faster than predicted, lower costs ( legal), and Ariosa in dis-array over chosing a new way to their their test. This could represent the golden era in owning this stock and a removal of those rusty pliers from my mouth. IZ IT SAFE? ( see Dustin in Marathon Man to get the reference)
    Indy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • individuaione individuaione Apr 14, 2015 4:11 PM Flag

    Ridge- CAFC is a big pivot and shorts will pound on it either way. 63% of vol. was sold short yesterday and the stock fought thru that. I think the entire interest base knows the power of this pivot pt. And some players are riding along on spec.

    But a win at CAFC means a PR that points to damages against Roche. The Roach-Pod Zoo has to act or they get no bananas ( food or payment, pick one).

    As time moves well past 180 days, one has to contemplate the weight of this decision and the discussions that must be going on. I think, and its just a guess, CAFC has to rule for SEQ as SEQ did NOT attempt to patent a gene( dissimilar to Myriad) and it was inventive in that, at that time, placental fluids were used and NOT blood so Dr. Lo made a huge discovery in how to isolate and magnify ( copy?) cffDNA to the extent he could see into it and make a determination. In other words, SCOTUS must decide if SEQ's method patent uses a syn. for copied DNA ( cDNA) as outlined by SCOTUS in Myriad. While I am slightly biased ( HA), I think CAFC has to rule for SEQ. and push this upto SCOTUS.

    Lets talk damages: direct loss of business that Roche enjoyed of say $150M$, then add in legal, lets say another 50M$ and then triple that, so your honor we'd like to say a check for $600M ( low side w.a.g.) by this Friday.
    Indy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Shorts are so determined to hold this in place that they are digging deeper into the dung.

    2015-04-13 SQNM Sequenom Inc 17266731018308 2744981 63
    2015-04-10 SQNM Sequenom Inc 249131 321665 570796 44
    2015-04-09 SQNM Sequenom Inc 289859 200127 489986 59
    2015-04-08 SQNM Sequenom Inc 418695 511990 930685 45
    2015-04-07 SQNM Sequenom Inc 156763 236483 393246 40
    2015-04-06 SQNM Sequenom Inc 184300 262328 446628 41
    2015-04-02 SQNM Sequenom Inc 171570 180927 352497 49
    2015-04-01 SQNM Sequenom Inc 344291 315873 660164 52

    Longs, when the good news arrives from court, buy 1-2% of your position in NEW shares. This will triple the pressure on the shorts as they fully expect LONGS to exit, somewhat.

    Indy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I predict a good day tomorrow.

    by ridgebackboo Apr 12, 2015 4:29 PM
    individuaione individuaione Apr 14, 2015 12:15 AM Flag

    Thanks KOP! The vein is open for even left over, half consumed harveys..."if you know what I mean" ( I luv using a Bud-ism, when appropriate). I am ready to run down a rabbit and eat it live...just hope there aren't too many cell phones in the field when I catch that little critter.
    Indy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I predict a good day tomorrow.

    by ridgebackboo Apr 12, 2015 4:29 PM
    individuaione individuaione Apr 13, 2015 1:57 PM Flag

    Bud- I was playing yesterday ( not at AUG-LOL) but watching updates on my phone. Jordan became real STEEL yesterday. The world is his oyster-rockafella. And yes, I was rooting for Lefty also. His flat stick returned because he doubled his concentration but his iron play was just enough off to keep him from putting pressure on. Oh well, Chambers Bay could be Lefty's ultimate triumph arena.

    Yes, make mine a Harvey RootC-KillerSq'd. I needs one in the arm, ah- stat!!!! Its OK if you miss the vein.

    Father Duffy scolded me in confession when I told him the amount of SEQ shares I owned, then he giggled. Does that mean something good or eternal fire...? TBC?
    Indy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I predict a good day tomorrow.

    by ridgebackboo Apr 12, 2015 4:29 PM
    individuaione individuaione Apr 13, 2015 1:30 PM Flag

    non invasive cancer of origin test blood draw test (NICO) at your doc's office, while you wait in the lobby chewing on the furniture? OK, maybe a 5 day turnaround from SEQ.

    Ridge- I was in here when Stylli ran the show- sold out, then watched the dragon era come and go. It was HH statement, we will have an NIPT test after the crash that brought me back into SEQ. From there, its been an never-ending root canal.
    Indy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I predict a good day tomorrow.

    by ridgebackboo Apr 12, 2015 4:29 PM
    individuaione individuaione Apr 13, 2015 12:49 PM Flag

    Ridge- nice call on today's news! As of right now, you are leaps and bounds ahead of every analyst covering SEQ!

    And NO CAFC news as of yet--meaning, likely SOON! I think the ILMN note by Wedbush today also pointed to SQNM as the POOL is filling fast...now imagine a CAFC win and an order to Roche to cease and desist to await jugement! Yeah baby, that's the ticket! Indy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • individuaione by individuaione Mar 29, 2015 5:09 PM Flag

    Just read Blair's "un-insightful" comments on travels with mgt. Not helpful to longs as it presents more of a picture of STASIS, which IMO, serves the shorts more than anything else.

    I see the shorts sticking around IF there are not more positive developments to discourage them. While Blair points at potential positives, all of them are presented as "over the horizon" developments. And I think Shorts think SEQ will have to dilute in '16 to settle looming bond redemption/debt. And if SEQ loses CAFC, shorts will pounce on that.

    It also presents a case for mgt. guessing at the future, and NOT actually believing in the model they have based their recent corp. agreements upon.

    While there is MORE potential upside than downside, the message is UNCERTAINTY. Not the message that attracts new investment interest. New tests, new categories, new pool developments, less legal fees and we get STASIS???????? You could say to a potential investor: take a leap into the pool of unknown, we did and we manage the company. All in all, I'd rather they skipped the INSIGHTS. I can't say anyone is plussed over being invested in SEQ after reading that...

    Anyone know if Heriditi revenue is pooled?

    Note to mgt.: you are supposed to drop sandbags on competitors, not on shareholders.

    Indy

  • Reply to

    A Buy Of 57,112 Shares @ $3.90 At The Close

    by uss_muliphen Mar 27, 2015 4:11 PM
    individuaione individuaione Mar 28, 2015 1:45 PM Flag

    USS--there is certainly a growing desire to own this stock while short control is waning...key questions, how does the company discourage continual shorting that is totally intended to cap the stock?

    - CAFC win? YES, but at what price will shorts attempt to reverse the buying?

    - CAFC loss? NO, shorts will pounce on this hard, but it will be a great LONG opportunity and maybe the last -best long opportunity.

    -Q1'15 B/E? POSSIBLE and will send shorts running as the gravey train is ending

    - BUY OUT? POSSIBLE with a CAFC win. A true bonfire of the shorties event.

    - LIQ BIOP. ROADMAPPED SOONER? This is a buy out driver IMO, and sooner than later is great short killing event.

    -INSIDERS BUY 1M SHARES? Shorts will ignore this but LONGS will not as it is a huge signal for events to come.

    As the Dude would say, " its a complicated case with lots on INS and OUTS..."

    Indy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • individuaione individuaione Mar 25, 2015 2:40 PM Flag

    Bud- the good news, the daily short count is dropping and not as consistent--they maybe more fatigued than us LONGS. ( who'd a thunk that).

    But WW has to speak to the investment community with some enlightened energy, show them the reason why we won't put "$15M" into SEQ, but more likely take $15M out.

    Q1's metrics should confirm or abuse his financial model re: pool. Fundamental question: does a doc/patient have any tangible reason to buy the test direct from SEQ or buy it thru Quest? That's huge, IMO.

    Not sure if you follow ROSG, but they have a tissue based NGS onco test they PR'd today. Tissue based...humm. Seems so yesterday if SEQ can get some traction after April's sort of intro from Dr. Lo...May's CC could be huge:
    - Heriditi story line with discussion of TAM.
    - CAFC win(?)
    - Pool returns positive results.
    - in house tests up for Q on yr2yr. comp.
    - SEQ posts a small profit ( $6M from ILMN in Q1-15)
    - Lo sets the table for a more detailed look at liq-biop as WW supports " leading position claim" that nobody seemed to buy, even the Wedbush "analyst".
    - Roach calls off the roachs and real discussions return to yahoo-ville.
    Hey, I'm just a small town pizza lawyer so I don't know much, but I can dream!
    Indy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • individuaione individuaione Mar 24, 2015 2:33 PM Flag

    corp- insti holding % HAD been much larger in years past. Then they all got wind of the LOCK DOWN on SEQ pps appreciation....I sense that some are coming back ( CAFC) and less are leaving ( CAFC). But instis are not buying on any type of bond with the company, IMO.
    Indy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • individuaione individuaione Mar 24, 2015 2:30 PM Flag

    Bud- always good to read a post of yours, buddy.

    - re: POOL-- its ILMN's duty to please the booty--er to enforce the pool rules. So yeah, they get an extra shot in their harvey for doing their job.

    - POOL numbers...I think the upside to the pool is it enables mgt. to go into other categories so for that I am happy. However, the hour is getting late ( ONCO). SEQ should take out BIOCEPT in SD soon or someone else will. And we won't like that.

    - I am 51-49 for SEQ prevailing at CAFC...while I know a few judges they all seem to act the same way: I KNOW IT ALL...well, they just ran into: I MAY NOT KNOW ENOUGH...so a punt to SCOTUS via a WIN for SEQ is appropriate. And we are UP, so next week is going to be bumpy no matter what happens.

    - I am hopeful that the Roach-master, who has deleted buku posts of mine, is about to get put out to pasture. And SEQ will post a profit in Q1 via the $6M Jan.15 pool payment...who knows, if they see positive effects of the pool ( ie a small drop in direct business vs a smaller royalty payout from Quest canabalizing their business then we could be off to the races. Say Saratoga in Late July! )
    Indy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • individuaione individuaione Mar 24, 2015 1:44 PM Flag

    Shorts still control the stock. They'll let out some slack to make a dime or two and their has been some mild interest in owning the stock. But paradigm for insti buying has been to let the shorts push into their account quietly. While the company is not part of that ( that's for amajer), the company enables that by not promoting itself nor the stock very well.

    It has branded it self for scientitsts, not retail-lab test customers so as far as anyone getting a warm and fuzzy relationship with SEQ from saving them from the amnio needle- forget that. One day in the not too distant future, pre-natal testing is going to be required as post-birth gene editing is going to solve alot of problems pre-natal tests identify. And SEQ will still be talking "Quality of Science", while competitors speak of Harmony and Verifying etc. They've put themselves in a box without a care for shareholders.
    Indy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • individuaione individuaione Mar 23, 2015 12:28 PM Flag

    DK- key word being TRIGGER. Heriditi HAD the potential to be THAT trigger but SEQ released on a Thurs. and then did NOT follow thru. What is the market size available for that battery of problems that Heriditi identifies?

    And the partnership - test send out means what for revenue?

    Is our sales force selling it? If so, what level of interest do they expect? How accurate is it? Why not webinar it to the medical community? Who is SEQ's media spokesperson? Are they going to appear anywhere to speak about this? Is SEQ going to run banners on appropriate websites?

    In fetal medicine, therapy is going to catch up with diagnosis. SGMO has already proved it can cure down's syndrome by silencing the extra gene. ( in an early test). And SGMO is targeting many single-gene diseases for gene editing. Not in the womb, but early on after birth. Amazing things are happening and in my opinion, SEQ is one of the best yet one of the most un-known "frontiersmen" of fetal medicine.

    This is a challenge for management, how do you communicate what you have to offer the world?
    Indy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • individuaione individuaione Mar 18, 2015 3:37 PM Flag

    Could be...but I think its all about a NEW pre-nat genetic test! This could be the test of the year for SEQ. And it could go from roll out to real revenue stream in 2 qtrs!
    Indy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hey Indi

    by lighthouselilly Mar 16, 2015 12:05 PM
    individuaione individuaione Mar 16, 2015 5:21 PM Flag

    Read this again:
    Parties responsible for enforcement of their own existing litigation prior to December settlement.

    P R I O R TO D E C E M B E R

    Why is that so hard to understand? Did you call the company? Call them or get out the pointy hat.
    Indy

  • Reply to

    Hey Indi

    by lighthouselilly Mar 16, 2015 12:05 PM
    individuaione individuaione Mar 16, 2015 5:19 PM Flag

    Can you read:
    "Parties responsible for enforcement of their own existing litigation prior to December settlement. "

    Read that five times and get out the pointy hat.

    Indy

  • individuaione by individuaione Mar 16, 2015 4:48 PM Flag

    And well deserved! Congrats you deserve it!
    Indy

  • Reply to

    Hey Indi

    by lighthouselilly Mar 16, 2015 12:05 PM
    individuaione individuaione Mar 16, 2015 4:00 PM Flag

    The company put this in their JPM presentation to enlighten YOU:

    " Parties responsible for enforcement of their own existing litigation prior to December settlement."

    You can parse that anyway you like. I understand what it means. But hey, call the company and ask them.
    Indy

SQNM
4.28-0.06(-1.38%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT