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AmeriGas Partners LP Message Board

infinitidrivr 340 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 22, 2014 2:51 PM Member since: Sep 7, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Effect of Appeals Ct decision last week

    by jrad52 Apr 21, 2014 3:56 PM
    infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Apr 22, 2014 2:51 PM Flag

    The larger coal units will be highly competitive with nat gas at more stable prices. There are many smaller coal plants without equipment that should be shut down. The global consumption of coal has grown and will continue to grow globally. It is important that more research be done collaboratively among utilities and other countries at stake to focus on carbon capture.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • infinitidrivr by infinitidrivr Apr 22, 2014 12:10 PM Flag

    The same folks who undermined CWH under the Portneys is at it again. Rest assured, they're tied to short traders. Bottom line: the new management will struggle to retain credibility and borrow money. I've been out ,will buy again when another Reit buys the pearls out of bankruptcy.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Anyone else get the email from UA?

    by chrotoem_fulco9590 Apr 15, 2014 9:35 AM
    infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Apr 21, 2014 3:52 AM Flag

    Spam

  • Reply to

    Willsden Green South Duvernay Up For Sale

    by ador Apr 1, 2014 3:11 PM
    infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Apr 4, 2014 8:39 AM Flag

    These assets get more valuable over time and selling is shortsighted. Management somehow thinks the company is under financial duress. Nothing is further from reality with equity/debt strong as is cash flow. Financing isn't a problem. I hope the new CFO can knock some sense in the new CEO.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Dividends stable for more than 7 years

    by kenpalley2000 Mar 28, 2014 10:31 AM
    infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Mar 29, 2014 11:43 AM Flag

    If one examines the evidence, WIN, like FGP, clearly has the support of their bankers/financiers with respect to their dividend policies. This is often overlooked in terms of examining the likelihood of future dividends.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Dividends stable for more than 7 years

    by kenpalley2000 Mar 28, 2014 10:31 AM
    infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Mar 29, 2014 11:41 AM Flag

    I agree with you. The track record of the dividend, although not always a predictor, is an important measure. An analagous example would be Ferrellgas(FGP), which I also own. Every quarter, the detractors of FGP say the dividend last quarter is the last. They are into their 19th year of paying the $2 distribution.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    bullish forbes article

    by reso33ns Mar 18, 2014 12:01 PM
    infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Mar 29, 2014 11:35 AM Flag

    Can't forecast but often good investments, especially long term, are made when certain facts aren't recognized:
    1) has anyone noticed coverage of earthquakes; busloads of Texans going to Austin statehouse expressing concerns, etc.
    2) environmental impact of fracking, not just earthquakes, use of large quantity of water and its contaminants;
    3) natural gas will be exported raising the cost;
    4)fracking wells are generally shallow, meaning they deplete more quickly than commonly thought.
    5) Volatility of natural gas prices.

    What this means is the importance of thermal, not to mention met, to the stability of electricity cost, essential to living and manufacturing. Utilities should be required to use the best technology or close the plant; coal sequestration technology should be part of a global effort, other technologies to cut emissions. Global warming is a reality. Cost of coal in the Illinois basin is very economical and plentiful.

    I'm a long term income investor. NRP is a good bet for some of my money.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    They should double the dividend

    by fishinanddreaming Mar 7, 2014 2:40 PM
    infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Mar 11, 2014 9:29 AM Flag

    The notion that cash flow should cover capital expenditures(that is defined as equipment and property that benefits the long term operations(capitalized not expensed(accounting 101), and dividends is among the many absurd notions we believe. How many consumers pay for their automobiles in cash. A company builds a headquarters building....must have cash flow to cover according to you.....ridiculous, absurd.

    I think the dividend could be raised. The financial austerity constraints being imposed by management and bankers are pretty ridiculous. I have a commercial banking background and an MBA.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    On the preferred...

    by hhires Feb 5, 2014 4:19 PM
    infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Mar 6, 2014 1:16 PM Flag

    Reasons why I don't think preferreds will be called. 1) Preferreds are around par or below. This means they can't redeem the preferreds and finance them cheaper with similar secuirities. 2) The common dividend is above 5%. This is not a likely source of funding to redeem preferreds for only a 2% approx dividend reduction considering its dilutive effect. 3) CBL, although having a pretty good credit rating, would not want to raise debt unduly. There will be capital needs for refurbishment and replacing tenants like Penneys and Sears. Toying too heavily into debt is one reason their stock hit $2 about 4 years ago....a question of CBL's viability. In other words, when it comes to debt, they learned a lesson will not use debt to redeem the preferreds.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Mar 6, 2014 8:26 AM Flag

    Corvex knows the RMR has acquired valuable assets over the last 15 years. Valuable in that they can be sold for some quick bucks. RMR tried to make its keep the old fashiioned way, acquiring valuable assets, relatively stable income over the long term with some growth.

    The new way to make some bucks is to disparage a respectable company to drive the price down, initiate a takeover, milk its assets and bankrupt the company. It is the Romney/Wall St strategy--the Wolf(wolves) on Wall Street

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Corvex wants to sell off company assets, leverage up the company for its own short term gain. Investors who want a quick fix should go with Corvex. I was once a long term holder of CWH and most of those companies in the RMR group but sold months ago. I have no dog in this hunt.

    If you're a trader, go with the new folks. I'm interested in a long term stable income investment. Thats why I'm out. For those who are long,my advice is to take the quick fix as it occurs but get out if pretty soon after Corvex takes over.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    CHANCES OF DIVIDEND CUT ON THE 27TH ?

    by cu2be99 Mar 3, 2014 8:52 PM
    infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Mar 4, 2014 1:16 PM Flag

    Anything is possible, including maintaining the dividend for another 100 years. It all depends on its bankers and creditors. Two strong indicators they can maintain it is the favorable financing, liberal terms received and their lengthening track record of maintaining. The terrible balance sheet metrics could be cited as a negative but one might want to look at FGP, which has similar characteristics. They have maintained their same dividend for 18 years based on good going concern fundamentals, confidence of the bank/credit community.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Will back around $10 in a month!

    by fredericklb62 Feb 27, 2014 10:10 AM
    infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Feb 27, 2014 4:47 PM Flag

    I think the dividend is likely maintained. Ultimately, it is up to the bankers. The company is stable, going concern and like all companies are at the mercy of stakeholders, especially creditors.

    I think the one positive sign you may be overlooking is their tender of debt last year. They were able to refinance that 7% medium term debt at a significantly lower rate. That is a sign of confidence from creditors. And importantly, the analyst at S & P thinks margins are stable to improving in important revenue metrics.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    NO Dividend reduction this year.

    by fdv54320 Feb 27, 2014 9:29 AM
    infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Feb 27, 2014 9:48 AM Flag

    Looks like a stable, going concern. Its not going to set the woods on fire but with a 11% dividend, that is highly likely to be repeated, WIN is a good bet.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    More Layoffs

    by louisavala Feb 20, 2014 6:17 PM
    infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Feb 21, 2014 2:33 PM Flag

    Dividends are a priority over workers? How can that be?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Cannot figure out Win

    by fgovane Feb 19, 2014 6:02 AM
    infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Feb 20, 2014 11:12 AM Flag

    I saw it by simply doing a google search with the company name(or its variations). Use Windstream Fitch and you're likely to find a report summary. The report also appeared as part of published information under the symbol which I read within my Fidelity Investments brokerage account. Fidelity is first rate. It isn't probably the entire Fitch report but significant content appears.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Cannot figure out Win

    by fgovane Feb 19, 2014 6:02 AM
    infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Feb 20, 2014 9:02 AM Flag

    I agree with your assessment and follow S&P IQ's analysis, most reports are done by persons trained in the field, usually CFA's. That having been said, you are correct that additional due diligence is necessary to be successful most of the time. The S&P Report combined with the Fitch Report helps convince me that WIN's dividend is likely sustainable.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Cannot figure out Win

    by fgovane Feb 19, 2014 6:02 AM
    infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Feb 20, 2014 8:59 AM Flag

    Seeking alpha and motley, like most commentators, offer points to consider, have their own notions of what they think is important. Sometimes I agree, sometimes I don't. One can reasonably suspect that often what we read has a hidden agenda behind it, some more obvious than others.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Fitch

    by wlk1148 Feb 19, 2014 11:23 AM
    infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Feb 20, 2014 8:55 AM Flag

    Fitch isn't predicting the value of WIN as a stock, rather, a rating agency analyzing their ability to sustain its business operations. This rating assumes it has thoroughly examined WIN's finances, financial covenants, etc. The report reaffirms my thesis that WIN is a going concern with a sustainable model and that maintaining the dividend, probable. Fitch doesn't need to examine the latest release to assign what amounts to a credit rating.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Fitch

    by wlk1148 Feb 19, 2014 11:23 AM
    infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Feb 19, 2014 11:59 AM Flag

    The Fitch report was a noteworthy positive, especially for someone looking at the dividend. Key takeaways: stable rating after examining debt and financial covenants; improved fcf in 2014; improved revenue diversification; business services and broadbrand revenues solid to growing.. For a 12% dividend, these are pretty good takeaways. I've bought 2700 shares within last two weeks.

    Sentiment: Buy

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