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AmeriGas Partners LP Message Board

infinitidrivr 206 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Sep 7, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Covnenents extended

    by mr.h_mentor Oct 30, 2014 7:49 AM
    infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Oct 30, 2014 8:17 AM Flag

    My background: commercial banking credit analyst and former ratings analyst.

    PWE isn't going bankrupt....thats crazy talk. Their noncore property that could be sold would pay off bank debt entirely. Debt/equity book value strong; cash flow(after expenses) 4X dividend.

  • targets approx. 13% annual growth in production...budget plans include retaining current dividend, yields 12%. RBC affirms maintaining dividend over the next 3 years as sustainable, price target $9. Accumulation by insiders....excellent takeover target between $13-20. Long a bunch! Capital budget less with production growing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • for 2015. The share price will recover eventually, in 2015 more than likely. Cole will prove to be a valuable asset generating fees, potential new real estate income asset/income growth for ARCP.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 1) Well within financial covenants; 2) Cash flow more than adequate; 3) Capex doesn't have to paid off in one year because capex development benefits cash flow 4-5 years perhaps more with new technologies;4) CEO is a tech guru maximizing capex with IRR's excellent; 5) tangible book equity(thats after deduction of goodwill in excess of debt; 6) 5 million acres of land mass alone, if sold, would pay bank debt(another reason it ain't going to bankrupt; 7) NPV of cash flow reflects enterprise value of $13-20/share based on Proved and probable reserves alone;8) Contingent reserves are several times higher than Proved + Probable. 9) Since well within budget, easily passing financial covenants; divdends are reported as long term sustainable given even conservative assumptions of oil; 10) ISIS and Iraqi outcome could tip global energy balance.

    Thank you shorts: i'm long 16.5k shares.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Bloomberg: JP Morgan analyst(although lowered his rating), stated management likely will fix problem, no affect on company cash flow;

    CNBC: traders were aggressively buying calls yesterday with the bet problem clears early 2015.

  • There will be no dividend cut in 2015. In fact, it is well known by all stakeholders, including the banks, brokers, that $.56 dividend is in the budget the next 3 years and is easily affordable.Quoting David Dyck, CFO, in the Globe & Mail article Nov. 2014,.."should we contiue to see commidity prices below Canadian dollar below $75/bbl, we MAY consider adjusting our capital allocation program(that is CAPEX, not dividend). With the Can $ at $.875, NYMEX is at almost $75 Canadian and will have to remain this low for probably more than a year, and then a cut MAY happen. Folks don't realize this company has and will continue to improve capital efficiencies(technology is rapidly improving and the CEO is a technical engineer); and PWE has many options before cutting the dividend,.

    Long 20k shares....thanks to the shorts, I will be collecting well in excess of $2000 in dividends quarterly.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    PWE has a good chance of bankruptcy

    by tomdavis415 Dec 23, 2014 12:50 PM
    infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Dec 23, 2014 1:45 PM Flag

    This stooge...MBA and former commercial banker owns 22k shares.

  • It is unlikely there will be a dividend cut but if its cut to $.75 annually, which is likely the most it would be cut, it still is paying 8% plus, compounded monthly. My first job was a commercial credit ratings analyst(over 40 years ago), and then 7 years as a commercial banker/credit analyst. Bottom line: ARCP is easily stronger financially than NNN or O. Accumulation and assimilation, going public and all this entails is complicated and mistakes can be made. I'm betting that I will collect somewhere approximate to my $7000approx in annual dividends over the long haul.

    I have read annual reports in the thousands(MBA Accounting) and this company is a banker's dream for having this business in their commercial banking division. And bankers are more like, "partners" for good companies that will support them through "issues" that can be inevitable through transitions companies go through like ARCP. The primary reason I think a cut is unlikely, is that it does more damage than it saves; increasing the likelihood of even greater lack of credibility, which lowers share prices and ultimately makes cost of capital more expensive

    This is a good, solid company, going through a temporary period of difficult transition.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • infinitidrivr by infinitidrivr Dec 31, 2014 1:19 PM Flag

    I remember Donergen well....when FGP was going to around $11, donker...was shouting "BANKRUPTCY". FGP has paid a consistent dividend for 20 years and is north of $20. That is his game.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Jan 7, 2015 8:15 AM Flag

    As a former commercial banker and credit analyst, Whitebear knows nothing about banking.

  • Reply to

    Senior notes

    by rongstag Jan 8, 2015 8:45 AM
    infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Jan 8, 2015 1:14 PM Flag

    Several hundred thousand shares have been purchased by officers and directors, including the CFO recently. Hard to imagine these facts would square with a potential default.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Dec 5, 2014 9:29 AM Flag

    PWE has a strong balance sheet and assets than can be sold to pay debt. Duvernay and Swan Hills alone fetch easily in excess of $1 billion on unsecured debt of $1.8 billion. PWE will find plenty of banker friends that will work through this and the dividend will likely be intact while we wait for more geopolitical turmoil and weaker players cut capex or fold. Whats missing here is PWE, although relatively small, has exceptional assets, solid finances and can pick and choose its direction over time, with a generous dividend yield while waiting. To Whitebear, I'm Infinitiwit but he is the true nitwit.

    Long: 20k shares.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Nov 1, 2014 11:28 AM Flag

    A short squeeze will be as painful as the arctic cold.

  • infinitidrivr by infinitidrivr Jan 17, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    Public records show insiders have purchased over 550,000 shares of PWE since September 2014. These insiders include David Dyck(CFO, Rick George,Chm, D. Roberts, CEO, and several others on the Bd of Directors.

    Clearly, they have not been hanging out on this yahoo board and been persuaded by Whitebear.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Why is a government agent of some authority putting out a price forecast? I understand why one would comment on energy dynamics but make a price forecast?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Another positive step forward

    by stockpickinmoron Jan 21, 2015 5:00 PM
    infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Jan 21, 2015 5:15 PM Flag

    I think there will be many positive steps in the first 6 months assuming we can keep the private equity boys at bay.

  • Reply to

    Bankruptcy? Never going to happen

    by infinitidrivr Nov 5, 2014 7:41 AM
    infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Nov 5, 2014 7:56 AM Flag

    Since the dividend has been declared and are well within financial covenants, bankruptcy isn't even close to being a realistic possibility.

  • From the 9/30/14 Report:

    "The company remains comfortable with its ability to fund its capital expenditure programs in conjunction with paying a dividend and has modelled and assessed its business plan at commodity price levels well below its budget assumptions.

    The company was in compliance with all financial covenants under its lending agreements. Speicifically, the reported senior debt to EBITDA ratio of 2:1 times in the quarter was well within the covenant threshold of 3:1, and the senior debt to capitalization of 23% is well within the covenant of threshold of 50%.

    I've noted earlier that PWE has substantial unused lines of credit available.

  • infinitidrivr infinitidrivr Oct 29, 2014 2:48 PM Flag

    The going concern aspect of this business will depend on the professional lenders, i.e. the banking syndicates and commercial credit markets. This mistake was reported quickly and responsibly after due diligence from an auditing committee. Keep in mind, there are multiple layers of accounting to mitigate this from happening including professional CPA firms(s). What it comes down to again, is the professional creditors.

    What the professional creditors see is somewhere close to $20 billion in book value assets; a debt/equity ratio that is quite strong both instrinsically and compared to the credit market place.

  • low cost producer. Beware of the vulture/predators who are short traders, hoping the company bankrupts betting they can make a quick buck. Finances are strong and this company will survive and the vultures will get caught with their pants down having to cover the dividend payments on top of their losses. Trading short is the new bridge being sold.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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