Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

PIMCO Covered Bond Source UCITS Message Board

inforgasm 18 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 14, 2015 12:40 PM Member since: Sep 15, 2006
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    We Need The OB Method

    by moneytb Jul 17, 2015 2:15 PM
    inforgasm inforgasm Aug 14, 2015 12:40 PM Flag

    Is that like the rhythm method? Maybe Chris Christie could help with marketing... apparently he is somehow sexually active though it has probably been years since he's seen his pecker.

  • Despite the large number of new customers. While the company warned that it would not sign up 7 new customers every quarter, it also said that many were small contracts. Indeed, there was no appreciable jump in license revenue from last year to this year's quarter suggesting that the 20% y/y organic revenue growth reported is probably sustainable.

  • inforgasm inforgasm Aug 10, 2015 1:15 PM Flag

    They don't have to when oil prices impact natural gas, which is used to make electricity. Unclear who invests in wind farms at less than $3

  • Tough to make wind make sense with cheap oil but they are selling out capacity anyway. Subsidies will surely be continued for fear of the vendors dying off. I'm surprised it is where it is but $60 oil should drive it back into the mid-$4s

  • Reply to

    Tomorrow

    by space.elephant Aug 3, 2015 10:04 AM
    inforgasm inforgasm Aug 5, 2015 9:43 AM Flag

    The numbers were great but sustainability is the question. That said the contracts they signed were small so woud not get too focused on the new customer number (which was 7). Organic growth of over 20% augments well for 10% to 15% growth for the year, which justifies a much higher stock price than where we are. As they invest for growth that should be improved upon moving into the next fiscal year. It's still a while before this is viewed as a momentum stock.

  • Reply to

    Earnings?

    by ulrikdk Jul 28, 2015 10:24 AM
    inforgasm inforgasm Jul 29, 2015 12:37 PM Flag

    I would say the downside risk is much more limited given the performance this quarter and the raised guidance to something like 55-60 cents in EPS. I don't think it is an acquisition candidate given it would lose its NOL and they buyout price for Cuattro would triple under those circumstances. It's more like there's reasonable visibility towards 80 cents in EPS for 2016 or a P/E of 40 which is much more supportable. Truth be told, I was looking to buy on a dip that never happened.

  • Reply to

    Earnings?

    by ulrikdk Jul 28, 2015 10:24 AM
    inforgasm inforgasm Jul 29, 2015 9:17 AM Flag

    EPS was a lot better than I thought but on lower Revenue growth. That's good because operating margins really took off but ultimately they need revenue growth to drive this puppy. I'd still say better than expected. While I like the Cuattro growth and profitability, I kind of fell like they are inflating it to max out the buyout.

  • Normalized for the Brazilian tax duties. Since the bulk of the Brazilian units were shipped just before March 30, we should see a large decrease in receivables and jump in cash due to the timing issues being largely resolved. They are not close to a deal to diversify but will elaborate on a reasonable, low-cost plan to enlarge the US market. Stock should easily recover into the low $2s by the end of next week. The next leg in the stock may be harder to come by...

  • Reply to

    Earnings?

    by ulrikdk Jul 28, 2015 10:24 AM
    inforgasm inforgasm Jul 28, 2015 10:46 AM Flag

    Fourth quarter is always the strongest so that is what will drive the full year number. Issue with this quarter is consensus of 10 cents vs. 17 cents a year ago (9 cents was last sequential quarter) and mid-single digit revenue growth. That's a tough comp for any 60 P/E stock, so likely some weakness until we move into second half reporting. The headline number will not be good but the conference call will tell what's really going on. We could see another situation like last quarter where it trades down 15% off results but rallies back.

  • Reply to

    Excellent Chance Company Is Sold

    by inforgasm Jul 14, 2015 10:21 AM
    inforgasm inforgasm Jul 14, 2015 10:39 AM Flag

    I think it was too expensive back then to draw a buyer at $6+ when it was trading off the dividend and not fundamentals. Now it's a different story. Sales have not dropped off nearly as much as the stock price and this is a fold-in acquisition where they don't need management and can leverage their own sales team.

  • The management team is not deep and the board is somewhat aged and fatigued. I would think one of the larger male condom manufacturers buys this to establish a beachhead in this part of the sector at a reasonably low cost of entry. They could actually use them to open the door into what is a much larger public sector market for male condoms. Take-out at $3-$4 per share.

  • Reply to

    More Good News...

    by moneytb Jul 1, 2015 9:48 AM
    inforgasm inforgasm Jul 1, 2015 9:41 PM Flag

    Units shipped are no longer a good measure. With competition, we need sales figures and with the Brazilian import duties they are now subject to we need profitability. Statements like having a consumer strategy around year-end when they've been in the consumer market for years and talked about entry a long time ago is not particulalrly helpful. With the South African tender award so disappointing, people are looking forward and not backward. Management has yet to communicate a reasonable strategy and the historical lack of any meaningful IR effort suggests they really don't care much for their shareholders.

  • inforgasm by inforgasm Jun 30, 2015 12:23 PM Flag

    It's a bit absurd.

  • Reply to

    Only 20% of the South African Tender

    by w_prtt Jun 26, 2015 9:05 AM
    inforgasm inforgasm Jun 26, 2015 12:37 PM Flag

    That's the issue. They were likely underpriced but no competitor has ever delivered more than 10-15M units annually in aggregate. We are likely to see a repeat but they still should have been awarded more of the tender.

  • Reply to

    Only 20% of the South African Tender

    by w_prtt Jun 26, 2015 9:05 AM
    inforgasm inforgasm Jun 26, 2015 9:31 AM Flag

    Agreed. This is a big disappointment.

  • We understand why the dividend was terminated. It did, however, open the door for stock buybacks from time to time notwithstanding the flexibility to seen an acquisition to diversify the business. Now down 60%, I cannot imagine a better use of capital than buying back 500,000 to 1,000,000 shares in the open market at current levels while continuing to preserve enough capital to pursue any reasonable transaction. The board must not have any confidence in the current management team.

  • Reply to

    Views on the coming months?

    by ulrikdk Jun 17, 2015 5:08 PM
    inforgasm inforgasm Jun 18, 2015 11:05 AM Flag

    That said, it should break $30 again with the Russell rebalancing

  • Reply to

    Views on the coming months?

    by ulrikdk Jun 17, 2015 5:08 PM
    inforgasm inforgasm Jun 18, 2015 8:26 AM Flag

    The story is indeed better than ever and that is why the stock has tripled. Question is can it hold the rally over the past year in the face of what is moderate earnings growth for another year or so until it really starts to break out. The insider selling has been going on for quite a while and the market has generally ignored it. This next quarter will be down from an EPS standpoint, but expected and slight misses over the last two quarters has not hurt stock performance. Tough to tell if it will continue to climb a wall of worry or gives 20% back before continuing the march back up. Keep an eye on the overall market. Not a takeout candidate, though, as value of NOLs goes away with change of control and it would cost $50M to buy out Cuattro's minority interest as part of a change of control. It's rallied on the back of long term fundamentals and will continue to trade that way.

COVR
0.950.00(0.00%)Jun 26 4:00 PMEDT