You have an interesting point. The disclosure by Indus Capital Partners was astonishing. They're coming off a down ~40% year and they almost triple their HLF holdings. Researching their firm a little more I found that they really don't have a large investor base and also list college endowment funds, public and private pensions, and sovereign wealth funds as part of their investor base.
Given their performance last year, combined with the risk around this company, combined with the now significant stake it represents in the Indus portfolio I'd be pulling my money and trying to be the 1st one to do so before the others.
Given that Ackman changed his funds capital structure and doesn't take leverage the short squeeze risk is low.
Yeah and their fund was down like 40% last year from brilliant positions like SUNE and TERP. Now they triple down our HLF and since are down 15% since doing so. I'd be running for the exits if I was an institutional investor in that fund
Actually I suspect that this is what the confidential treatment is in regards to...from their recent letter to shareholders. Since it's conditional they'd likely want to keep this private until said condition is met.
"In conjunction with development of the Gigafactory,
we recently signed two conditional purchase orders
for lithium hydroxide in order to promote sourcing of
this commodity at lower cost and with reduced
Since it's conditional they'd likely want to keep this private until said condition is met. It's like signing a non-disclosure agreement with another party. I wouldn't read anything in these confidential treatments.
I wouldn't necessarily say they are in trouble but I do think they're overvalued. If you want to see a company in trouble go look at SUNE or SCTY. SCTY was a sideshow pet project to get his family rich but TSLA is his baby along with SpaceX. The trouble that TSLA has at this point is brain drain from talent getting poached and the need for capital when capital costs are going up. Also people are waking up that a $35K car was always a hoax. Adam Jonas is right that they foresee a world of TSLA electric cars that people take like cabs with no drivers. That is years off from a regulatory standpoint and will take a ton of capital they don't have. The energy storage angle is also opportunity but it's a sub 10% margin business and will be highly competitive and also years away from scale.