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Apple Inc. Message Board

innsbrooklad 409 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Nov 11, 1999
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  • Reply to

    To poster June

    by pharmaapproved Oct 20, 2014 10:59 AM
    innsbrooklad innsbrooklad Oct 20, 2014 11:08 AM Flag

    When VBLOC gets approved the first trade will be $6.00 and all of us who have accumulated six figure
    positions in the stock will not sell. The shorts are going to get killed and what they have done in the last
    three months with the help of the market makers has created them nothing. The short interest is larger.
    Every electroceutical article is going to be another nail in their coffin.

  • innsbrooklad by innsbrooklad Nov 16, 2014 11:13 AM Flag

    We talk about the FDA so often, remember Dr. Lerner and three other FDA folks were at the ADCOM meeting and were tasked with several questions. I feel since the greatest complaint came from the shortness of the trial that every month the FDA has been receiving updated information on the existing patients and may help the overall approval process.

  • I like this. Medtronics oars have been in the water dealing with COV and they received European approval yesterday. I have to believe come hell or high water Knudson has a deal with Medtronics for international selling if he wants it. ETRM has done the heavy lifting in Europe and this is an easy one. Upon approval the next announcement will be a non-US deal to sell VBLOC. This could be a billion dollar product without much effort in my humble opinion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • innsbrooklad innsbrooklad Dec 9, 2014 8:35 AM Flag

    After approval you are going to need years of therapy.

  • innsbrooklad by innsbrooklad Dec 7, 2014 11:35 AM Flag

    I do not care when the FDA reports to the company and I enjoy the blather about the price change afterward. In drugs you can draw a reasonable assurance as to sales, while devices are a completely different animal. How many small device companies are there out there? This NVRO new issue pain company is just that. A new issue with all the specs playing. ETRM will get approved and there will be a 100-200% price increase in the stock. You will shake out the specs and day traders and then you will address the shorts, who I think are all the warrant holders who will cash their warrants and cover their shorts. They lose out forever. The next 3- 6 months will tell the tale in the U.S. as to demand for the device. I still believe they will do 50,000 procedures in the first 18 months. But the real interesting events will source around the international deal they sign. I see a minimum of $100MM up front and a double digit royalty. Then I think we will get a look at their science which will have a capital base on which to proceed. I have wondered why they have not done a deal away from obesity but I suppose the FDA has been all consuming. The FDA has taken it time with ETRM for reasons that will clear. I think they would like to move the BMI minimum to 30 and I think they may have interest in the next generation of device will will be smaller and less of an implant problem. This is still the singe best investment I have seen and while it will take 3-6 months eventually major investors will agree.

  • innsbrooklad by innsbrooklad Oct 14, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    The short sellers and/or buyers are making life interesting. They are playing catch with a hand grenade.
    Nothing has changed. There is no news and the FDA wait is allowing manipulation. It is a one dollar...You know your downside...What you have no idea about is your upside. I have read their patents and feel they are
    looking at a bunch of new indications. If you want encouragement read the FDA ADCOM transcript. There
    was unanimous efficacy vote on 18 month data. Keep your heads and do not give those shorts or accumulators your stock.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • innsbrooklad by innsbrooklad Oct 17, 2014 10:12 AM Flag

    Health..." Obesity and Depression Often Twin Ills."
    55% of people taking antidepressants are obese. Interesting article.

  • innsbrooklad by innsbrooklad Nov 15, 2014 8:31 AM Flag

    Went up in total ownership.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    From Fierce Biotech Devices

    by innsbrooklad Dec 5, 2014 4:16 PM
    innsbrooklad innsbrooklad Dec 5, 2014 5:00 PM Flag

    I hate to post after my own posts but I have to believe approval of our device is imminent and from conversations with the company and listening to the conferences I can't imagine why they would hire an operations guy after 5 months of dialog with the FDA. Also people are ignoring the real story in my opinion of the science and technology we possess. I know of four drug companies involved in the space, but they are mostly ones dealing with the head and pain. The real commentary from the company which I have never heard is what other targets are they planning to go after post FDA. I think it will surprise even us. Good weekend all.

  • innsbrooklad by innsbrooklad Oct 21, 2014 3:29 PM Flag

    I will probably showing my age, but I follow technology and changes in science. My first gambit was Amgen.
    At the time there were so many naysayers about monoclonal antibodies that I knew there had to be something. Xerox had the first PC but they determined it was not going to work. Two guys left and formed
    Compaq. Remember the first dial up on line company? Sears and a deal called Prodigy? Remember 8 years ago the folks who laughed at RNA interference? The field of electroceuticals is new and fascinating. ETRM
    is not the biggest guy on the block but it seems to have advanced a unique device for attacking obesity.
    For the life of me I find it appalling that some root against the company in its efforts to succeed in bringing
    VBLOC into the market. Patients lost an average of 24.5% in twelve months. No pill has done that. Sure
    bariatric surgery had 40% EWL but some folks died and the reversal rate is upwards of 30%. The first guy
    through the wall gets bloodied, but he also finds the greatest success. I know there are several large
    drug companies now looking at the kind of technology we have. GSK gets the ink but this science is not
    lost on the other big research areas. Pfizer I am told has a department that does nothing but read patents
    all day as I suspect they all do. The FDA is so far behind the obesity curve they wind up looking at
    Novo Nordisk insulin drugs?

  • innsbrooklad by innsbrooklad Oct 27, 2014 7:52 AM Flag

    Been away for a while and just read a few of the acrimonious posts this morning. The FDA question arises
    almost daily. We have to have a common theme about VBLOC and mine is the FDA job this time is
    very difficult. The clinical trial, the 10% superiority, the safety and benefit issues and the fact that this is a first of a kind device and may well set the parameters for future electroceuticals. A device that is treated as a therapeutic is not something that is not going to be debated at the FDA. If you read the New York Times article in the May issue you know they are making advances in rheumatoid arthritis. A look at our patents and patent applications you have to know this science has the possibility to explode.

    We will be hearing relatively soon and for me it will be a seminal event in medical treatment. I read the transcript twice and the comments by the majority of the ADCOM were very positive. I do think we will get a positive response but let us all sit back and wait and start being adults. The November Obesity meeting will introduce the VBLOC device as well as the science. I am not expecting a FDA decision before the event, but still think the company is on track for a decision in 2014.

    I still find it numbing that people would root against this product at a time where obesity is becoming a much more recognized disease.

    Anyone going to the Conference?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • innsbrooklad by innsbrooklad Nov 18, 2014 9:48 AM Flag

    It costs you 7% to borrow the stock. There are only enough calls to cover 1,000,000 shares as I and a few others have a sizable call position. The institutions are not short the box as they would have to disclose that.
    Upon approval you will find it difficult to find real shares to buy and if someone makes a run for ETRM after approval the stock will trade a lot higher than the buyout.

    For the life of me I can't understand why you would short a 1.30 stock that at the worst will establish the device in Europe and Australia. If it gets approved you idiots have no place to hide.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • innsbrooklad by innsbrooklad Nov 13, 2014 7:08 AM Flag

    The largest pension and health system in the country, California Public Employees Retirement System increased their position in the stock by 110,000 shares in the Third Quarter. While it is an investment, could you imagine them getting on board the reimbursement train for their employees. If anyone knows the costs of obesity it is fund like theirs.

  • innsbrooklad by innsbrooklad Nov 14, 2014 7:31 AM Flag

    I came away from the CC with one theme. They are talking to a lot of potential partners. One which could be a major player for ETRM in Europe, Asia and Australia is the company Medtronics is buying, Covidien. They are a perfect company to partner with and they have enormous reach. The have huge manufacturing capability.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    51,000% return possible in Year One (1)

    by adelfig Oct 16, 2014 10:50 PM
    innsbrooklad innsbrooklad Oct 17, 2014 7:44 AM Flag

    Do you get up every morning and reach for the Grey Goose bottle. Do you know anything about device
    pricing? Do you know anything about economic models? The insurers do not reimburse pills or bariatirc
    surgery so they will be slow to accommodate reimbursement. They will not charge $10,000 for the device.
    My feeling is they want volume not exclusivity. Look at the prices for knees, hips, ankles etc, And patents
    or not, there will be competition. A lot of our SG&A will be legal fees fending off patent infringement.
    They will do in my opinion 50,000 procedures in the first 18 months at $5,000 per device, The effects
    on the comorbidities will eventually get reimbursement but that is at least three years in the future. The
    bet I am making is the company's technology and broad patent estate. That will increase the stock value
    as much or more than VBLOC in the future. They are miniaturizing the VBLOC which should be ready right
    after approval and will be a simple amendment to our PMA. The next targets are I believe are on the drawing board and will progress quickly once they raise capital. I have read the FDA summation several times and
    every comment about obesity written in the last five years. While we appreciate your enthusiasm it is best
    kept in the Grey Goose bottle. You have become quite boorish.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Interesting Facts about Mr. Hancock's Hire

    by pokerman1958 Nov 10, 2014 2:12 PM
    innsbrooklad innsbrooklad Nov 11, 2014 9:32 AM Flag

    I understand the need to start preparing for a potential approval, however since the position is really not high up on the executive pecking order and is more an operational job, I would have kept the hire quiet until the FDA has made its decision. In some eyes this may look like the cart before the horse and the FDA much to our collective chagrin is the driver of the cart.

    Albeit he is the right guy for the job and I do support the company's effort to prepare to hit the ground running.
    I personally would have kept his employment quiet as they have everything else under the sun.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • innsbrooklad by innsbrooklad Dec 2, 2014 7:44 AM Flag

    Sold $17 Billion of bond yesterday to buy Covidien, It was a massive deal and they stole the money at very low rats of interest. Now they are an international player and will be very aggressive in acquiring new technologies in every aspect of health care. ETRM is in the sweet spot and with their marketing power they could make VBLOC explode worldwide. Medtroincs is going to need new revenue sources as the there has to be some overlaps in products and the economies of scale created by this merger are usually not long lived. Something to be followed.

  • innsbrooklad by innsbrooklad Oct 23, 2014 4:09 PM Flag

    Today's entry,,," Obesity the next big thing in Medical devices."

    Great comments on the FDA and the safety, benefit/risk needs.

  • Reply to

    Big Spike in Price coming after Conference Call

    by adelfig Nov 20, 2014 8:57 AM
    innsbrooklad innsbrooklad Nov 20, 2014 9:05 AM Flag

    Back in the box please. Can't you just sit there and eat your Cheetos???

  • innsbrooklad by innsbrooklad Nov 12, 2014 8:14 PM Flag

    Knudson was stammering and stuttering as he is not a good speaker, but he probably had a bevy of lawyers in the office telling him what to say. Greg Lea was good too and seems very able. The first thing that hit me was the mention of the Lerner letter. Have you folks read it? It basically says safety first for devices and we have to structure trials based on that and not a huge efficacy beat over a placebo. Lerner is going to vote on VBLOC.
    Next they are setting up a major deal overseas. You have to be deaf not to hear that. Upon approval that will be done and we will get a huge upfront. FYI. The biggest #$%$ off shore are in Japan and China and we have not even sent them a postcard. It is a simple process to open and get a new site running. One day maybe two to get the surgeons up to speed. They can do 10 surgeries a day versus how many bariatrics??

    The FDA was on the call as they always are when they are in process but ETRM also has SEC folks to keep happy also. Knudson hit all the right buttons and explained this company and its goals succinctly. I am sorry no one asked about the technology or other targets the company is investigating. Upon approval we will learn of a new smaller more efficient device with longer battery life. And last you heard him say they will start the pricing at reasonable levels and will also apply to the FDA for the diabetes addition.

    This party is just starting and the folks who sold me stock today all I can say is thanks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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