I seriously doubt it; just one analyst upgrade today. However with a good CEO selection I think the stock could make $30.
So I watch The Tonight Show and a guest spends a minute talking about how she found out about her new role ...on Twitter. Today on CNBC there's a Honda ad talking about hashtags, etc (i.e. Twitter). Moving to ESPN every analyst title graphic has a Twitter logo and name to follow. Donald Trump's voicemail asks you to follow him on (you guessed it) Twitter. No reference to Facebook. All US presidential candidates can be followed on ...Twitter. Shimon Perez ...on Twitter. New Saudi king ...on Twitter. China Xinhua News ...on Twitter. Try to go a day of TV watching without seeing a Twitter logo.
Brand has only gotten more pervasive since the IPO. Selling is overdone. I'd love to be the new Twitter CEO at a $28-something stock price.
I don't have reliable sources, but I've seen what appears to be jarring downside moves in another stock only to end much higher when acquired.
Twitter content value - based on increasing breaking institutional, corporate and media content - is increasing, which increases brand value. It's not just a service for celebrity narcissists and zombie followers. I personally find more value in breaking financial, sport, weather, etc news than that is delivered chronologically.
Make a better UI and increase awareness of the improved service and we'll wonder how we could have doubted twitter.
Institutions (e.g. governments), corporations and media sources, in addition to individuals, increasingly provide content via twitter. It's becoming the de-facto news wire for global breaking news. I see this as better content all the time which increases brand value. Recent efforts to improve monetization have worked - also good. To do's:
First task: Get solid operational and Wallstreet-conscious leadership in place. Should be do-able.
Next task: Improve the ease of use/"stickiness" of the UI, which will improve user retention. That's the toughest one.
Following task: Create awareness of improved service to drive usage. That's plain old marketing/advertising.
I think I should be CEO :-)...
Agree on stupidity up until "no part-time CEO" and less arrogance/more urgency in the 2Q earnings call transcript. That said, saying and doing are two different things.
1. Realistically, even if Dorsey says he'll quit Square, he'll still probably spend time on Square. Hence he won't be a full-time CEO.
2 In his CNBC interview with Costolo 6/12, he demonstrated the same Wall Street relationship dysfunction Costolo had. Twitter closed down that day after the interview.
After studying TWTR, IMHO I believe individual user numbers (MAU, etc) are key, followed by increasing the platform's stickiness for these consumers. Bacca's suggestions, among others, for monetization then make sense. But with stagnant individual user growth and questionable stickiness, it doesn't make sense now. It would just empower opportunistic competition.
I read the 4Q 2014 and 1Q 2015 earnings call transcripts. In the 4Q, Costolo was incorrectly bullish on MAUs. Then, in the 1Q call he was all about "we" failed to execute on MAU and non-GAAP EPS. Since there's no COO since mid last year, lack of execution comes home to roost at CEO.
Quality and speed of execution issues do implicate the CEO, so can't argue with that view. I'm concerned about a culture that the Periscope CEO basically praised for not being demanding. That concerns me, and has be concerned about how well the BoDs are honoring their fiduciary responsibilities to the shareholders. My time horizon is 1-1.5 yrs. I fear an AMZN 2000-2009 stock plateau.
By the way, nice to see posts with more analysis and rigor.
I don't disagree with your ad/sales concerns, but believe they are secondary. Having evaluated Twitter's articulated strategy last fall and, reading between the lines, finding it sensible, I believe quality and speed of execution is the root of the problem. Communicating the platform's value proposition - beyond the common non-user perception it's only a window into the lives of narcissistic celebrities - to increase adoption/use, and making the platform "stickier" for institutional, corporate and individual users, will create an environment where the ad/sales issues you mention become more primary. Without significant progress towards the two primary concerns, Twitter usage won't grow and/or competitors will steal the market opportunity.
Did anyone else see that in his interview last week with CNBC?
That one comment trumps any profit placating statements I've heard from Twitter execs.
Strategy communicated in the last earnings call is ok. Execution is the issue. Unless there are some signs of execution before next earnings call, I'd anticipate a CEO change or acquisition by "old tech" (e.g. HPQ, MSFT, etc).