I doubt anyone would want cadmium molded into the body panels of their car.
Getting into solar would be a logical thing for Apple to do, though. They already have built some plants with First Solar and others. Apple even created an energy company recently. With their pile of cash sitting overseas, Apple could create its own yieldco and get a nice return on that money that otherwise would just sit there.
A British MP strongly opposed to Brexit was murdered today. It would seem a lot of traders feel there will be a backlash and the Brexit vote will be defeated.
Last earnings Barrick stated that every $100 increase in gold over $1200 would increase EBITDA by $400 million. So gold at $1500 would grow EBITDA by $1.2B. After taxes that would be around $1 billion. Considering that Barrick still loses money, that would put its profits under $1 billion. And with a market cap of $24B, it would still have a way above market average PE. These gold mining stocks seem rather overpriced at the current gold price.
The mining stocks are trading really strangely compared with gold. On May 6 gold hit $1300 and GDX closed at 23.13 while NUGT was at 107.72. Now gold is at 1246 while GDX is 25.33 and NUGT 99.90.
Two things stand out. First, mining stocks are jumping far higher than the bump in gold would suggest. Second, NUGT has decayed over 7% in 4 weeks.
Sometimes I wonder how First Solar can trade below book value even with a single digit PE and nearly a third of its market cap in net cash. Post like yours, though, make it clear there are a lot of fools who let their politics get in the way of investing.
On March 23 gold was at 1223, right where it is now. Back then GDX was at 19.03 and NUGT was at 51.34. On February 18 gold was 1226, GDX was 18.90 and NUGT was 54.72. Now GDX is 23 and NUGT is 77.75.
The mining stocks jumped when gold spiked but haven't fallen back to pre-spike levels. Even if gold settles around 1225 it would seem NUGT still has a long ways to fall.
Also, you can calculate the decay from the 3x. GDX is up 20.9% since March 23 while NUGT rose 51.4% so NUGT decayed about 11% in two months. And the decay is around 23% since the middle of February.
Back on March 31 gold was trading at 1234, GDX at 19.97, and NUGT at 58.54. Now gold is a little lower at 1229 yet GDX is at 22.88 and NUGT is at 76.90.
Two things stand out. First, the mining stocks have been outperforming gold. Not sure if this trend can continue.
Second, the decay is very evident. GDX is up 14.5% while NUGT is up 31.4%. If NUGT traded at 3x the change of GDX, it would be at 84.13. The decay has been $7.23, or about 9%.
If you consider this drop reasonable I'd hate to see what you consider an unreasonable drop to be. First Solar has over 30% of its market cap in cash and is trading about 20% below book value. The stock trades like a deeply distressed oil company, not the best positioned company in an industry set to boom.
Even if you buy into the low forward estimates, and considering that the estimates have been under by over 100% this past year that would be a very bad assumption to make, they are still below market average. Also, the estimates are based on GAAP numbers rather than the non-GAAP garbage so many other companies use today. If First Solar used non-GAAP like the cool FANG kids do, this stock would probably be trading for over 100.
Every once in a while the stock trading algorithms go a little crazy and this seems to be one of those times.
PE also means something to someone who wants to own a company outright. Just about any company could buy First Solar and improve their bottom line. I mean, even Apple with its PE of 10 could buy First Solar and have its financials improve.
Apple buying First Solar might actually make some sense. Tim Cook hinted that Apple might be interested in making larger acquisitions and the two companies are currently working together on a couple solar farms. Apple, with its massive cash pile, could dominate the solar industry.
Over the past 4 quarters, the analysts have predicted First Solar to earning $3.61 while the actual earnings turned out to be $7.60. The estimates usually turn out to be extremely low.
If anyone is doing that then they are wasting their time. The price of NUGT is linked to the gold miners index GDX. That in turn is based on gold mining stocks like Barrick, Newmont, Goldcorp and others. If someone wanted to manipulated sentiment they would need to post on those boards, not NUGT's.
Do you realize this is an ETF and the price is tied to GDX? Volume and short interest don't mean a thing to NUGT. If you are into things like that, you should be checking out the miner stocks that the ETF holds.
This is because triple leveraged ETFs decay over time. NUGT is supposed to triple the movement of GDX. Suppose GDX moves up 6% on day and then down 6% another. If you started at 100, your investment would jump to 106 the first day and then drop to 99.64. For NUGT, your investment would jump to 118 and then drop to 96.76. So in just two days your investment would decay by 3%.
This is why both NUGT and DUST, two ETFs that are the inverse of each other, are both down big ever year. Triple leveraged ETFs make horrible long term investments.
This is an ETF that is supposed to move 3x whatever GDX does. Seeing that GDX is up 3.3% today, there is nothing strange about this 10% move in NUGT.
An analyst upgraded Barrick, the largest holding of GDX, and that stock is up over 5% today. Many other miners also jumped. That explains the move.