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insider_expert 56 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 28, 2016 6:44 PM Member since: Jan 6, 2013
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  • today was an important day as after closing above 50 day moving average back in late March we finally today closed above 200 day moving average; Next major stops according to the charts are 0.65 followed by 0.75, and then 0.95. Good luck to all. With oil hovering above $45 in months and anticipation of the court exit pressing on I expect the move upward to be less grinding and in a more rapid fashion followed by explosive days when some shorts throw in the towel surrender.

    Meanwhile I ask all long to put all their share for sale at GTC but at a very high price of say $10/share so as the share price moves up the shorts won't be able to mount a counter offensive by borrowing your shares to short them and try to manipulate things. (I have done that to all my shares). Good luck.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Stock Held Down

    by freekfn Apr 28, 2016 10:13 AM
    insider_expert insider_expert Apr 28, 2016 10:39 AM Flag

    ...and obviously longs are not falling for it and not selling; the longer this mm manipulation continues the more compressed of a coil they'll have in their hands ready to explode upward. At current market cap the price is simply less than fire sale...if oil stays here or moves towards 50 and the court okays the plans the cap should be minimum $500 m )in their filling their lawyers claim equity to be worth up to $880 m...guess what current cap is? Ready---------- under $30m !!! Wow, that's is amazing but I've seen it happen with other companies many times; as an example is Pier1 which I was involved with around 6-7 years ago when shares touch 10 cents during the trading one day; shortly after it was up thousands of percentage points reaching a high of $25 nearly 3 years later...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • In most countries anyone with ability to read can quickly read and understand and documents or order by a court, a judge, or attorney. Here you have to be an attorney or hire one to simply understand the contents of a legal documents.
    The same way the IRS with their thousands of pages of rules and codes and loopholes needs to be replaced with a simple tax system our legal system with their phony legal writings needs to replaced with a NORMAL common folks understanding system. If any educated person can read a journal or a scientific research, or any other material and understand it they should also be able to understand the order written by a judge.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Could not comprehend the multi-page court order dated yesterday (although it seems to indicate that the term loan holders aren't impaired and hence do not get to vote on the plan) but here is Wall Street Journal's take:

    By LILLIAN RIZZO
    Updated April 12, 2016 5:28 p.m. ET
    A bankruptcy judge gave the green light to Paragon Offshore PLC’s creditors to vote on its restructuring plan, which would wipe more than $1 billion in existing debt from its balance sheet.

    Judge Christopher Sontchi of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Wilmington, Del., on Monday signed off on an outline of Paragon’s restructuring plan, court papers show, paving the way for creditors to begin casting their votes.
    In addition to lowering the company’s debt load, Paragon will also see a $60 million reduction in annual cash interest expense from its balance sheet. Creditors eligible to vote on the plan will have until May 31 to submit ballots, and Judge Sontchi will consider approving the plan itself at a hearing set for June 21.

    The offshore drilling rig operator filed for bankruptcy in mid-February with an agreement in place with most of its lenders to accept cash payments in exchange for the reduction of debt.

    Paragon owed about $795 million under its revolving loan as of its bankruptcy filing, court papers show. As part of the plan, the balance of that loan will be converted into a term loan and reduced to $544 million, with maturity extended through 2021 in exchange for a $165 million cash payment to the lender.
    Paragon had already reached an agreement on restructuring terms with 77% of two groups of its unsecured bondholders and 89% of senior lenders before filing for bankruptcy. Under the plan, current shareholders will keep a 65% equity stake in the company. Paragon’s current term loan of about $644 million will carry through the bankruptcy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Where is that Fun Trading SCHMUCK who is been wrong over and over again for nearly a year but won't give up and keeps claiming to be an expert on drillers with his copy/paste article attacking every driller out there but specially the Paragon ?!!! I suppose he is sore because as he admits he was trading this stock but missed the boat a couple of months ago when it jumped 300%. He also cost his followers and his short buddies millions; what a shame.

    Today's news appears pretty good news but one has to find the actual judges order and read all the details (I don't have time right now but plan to locate the order this evening and will report on it but if anyone else has the time to do it sooner that be great). Remember if true once they exit bankruptcy the shareholders will be owning 65% of the newly formed company....thanks to the Paragon management.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Price returns to its steady fall

    by cheng_ho Mar 31, 2016 9:42 AM
    insider_expert insider_expert Apr 7, 2016 9:44 AM Flag

    To read the court docs:

    click on kcc/paragon case webpage to load page, then on left hand side click on "court documents"

    Again, everything on the calendar for yesterday's hearing went Paragon's way ...Court continued until May 11 where I suspect the main issues contained in the term lenders objection and other matters will be discussed. I could not find what is included on May 11's calendar. Please let us know if you find more info on what is coming up on next hearing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    anybody know the outcome

    by bushloss04 Apr 7, 2016 8:35 AM
    insider_expert insider_expert Apr 7, 2016 9:22 AM Flag

    Paragon was able to get court approval and overcome several items objected to by term lenders including complete access to all their cash and bank accounts as well as approval to pay all their ongoing expenses; court also approved the hiring and paying of their counsels as well as needed experts despite the objections previously filed by the term lenders; Paragon also filed their response to term lenders objections.

    The next court date is set for May 11.

    All and all so far so good ; My first impression is that the judge is moving along despite the objection which is a very good sign but we still have to wait and see.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • insider_expert insider_expert Apr 5, 2016 10:23 PM Flag

    Not sure much going to be accomplished in a single hearing tomorrow...but "we shall see"...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What is on the BK court agenda for Wednesday?

    by swaff2011 Apr 4, 2016 9:51 PM
    insider_expert insider_expert Apr 5, 2016 9:23 AM Flag

    www dot kcclcc dot net/paragon--- April 6, 2016
    If you go to above site you'll find out about the hearing of 4/6/16 to CONSIDER APPROVAL of proposed plan of reorganization as well as proposed disclosure statements.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • insider_expert by insider_expert Apr 4, 2016 10:47 AM Flag

    Keep your ears to the wall...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • insider_expert insider_expert Mar 31, 2016 2:01 AM Flag

    Remember the revolving creditors have already signed on as have everyone else except these term lender guys; How can they argue they are impaired when revolving lenders have signed on? As mentioned they are basically trying to get their hands on some of that cash that is being given to bondholders and others which is the company is forced to do so it would actually be a benefit to the company because the only place this cash can come from is from the $345 and $165 millions given out and these cash receiving guys may have to agree to give up some cash each as to not rock the boat which would be to the shareholders and company's advantage. I don't expect it to be prolonged (may be at most extended by one month) but even if it is prolonged that is also to the company's advantage as meanwhile they don't have to make any interest payments which at the same time getting more time while waiting for oil prices to recover.

    Markets are not necessarily rational ; while I believe we should now have a relief rally as term lenders have not come up with an smoking gun and the shares have already built in the worse case; but even if we don't have a rally or it goes the opposite direction I am not concerned and will not sell a single share as markets eventually always end up seeing the light and in my view the value of 65% of restructured company is worth much much more than a cap of 20 million specially that to me the future holds much promise for Paragon despite current dark days facing most in the oil sector.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • insider_expert insider_expert Mar 31, 2016 1:17 AM Flag

    The term lenders are bunch of nutheads that are simply upset because they were not offered a few million in cash; But just look at their argument: they claim they've been impaired even though bondholders had to write off close to half of their $1.1 billion and shareholders had to give up 35% to satisfy the bondholders; Isn't that crazy? These term lenders guys continue to have the same claims against the same company (Paragon) except now that company has less overall debt without reducing or touching theirs !!! How in the world is this considered impaired? Isn't that exactly the opposite as the status of their loans are now enhanced as the company now has less overall debt?

    And they also argue that the company's projections wrt commodity and drillers market is too optimistic? Optimistic or not future will bring what future will bring; how is making a more pessimistic projections for example help their loans; if they are bringing this projection matter up to indicate their desire for the company to pay out less cash to revolvers and bond holders that may be a reasonable argument but if so they need to be brave and come out and say exactly that and provide some numbers such as how much they think these other guys should receive in cash. Or are they also willing to write down nearly 50% of their loan in return for some cash and shares? Otherwise their argument is so baseless that is almost funny: it seems they want the best of both world which is not to reduce their loan but get some cash!!! Hello term lenders the judges are not that stupid. Why don't you losers cut to the chase and say what you willing to offer in terms of how much discount you will to give from the top of your loans and how much cash you want and stop your bs legal jargon of mentioning case after case of unrelated matters.

    Bottomline: to term lenders i say IMPAIRED my azz! Be happy the company that owe you money will have much less debt with no chance of default at least until 2018.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • "WHEREFORE, for the reasons set forth in this Objection, the Secured Term Loan Agent
    respectfully requests that the Court (1) deny approval of the Proposed Disclosure Statement or (2)
    to the extent that the Court is inclined to APPROVE the Proposed Disclosure Statement, (a) require
    the Proposed Disclosure Statement to be MODIFIED as set forth in this Objection and (b) schedule
    the Confirmation Hearing no earlier than July 14, 2016."

    Above is the exact copy of the VERY LAST sentence of their multi-page docs submitted to the court. In the legal verbiage when you end your long discussions and arguments by telling the court that if the court is inclined to APPROVE to at least require disclosure statement proposed be modified it means you well understand that most likely the court will approve, with or without any modification, and you are simply trying and HOPING to extract as much for oneself as possible.

    The term lenders appear very upset even attacking the 65% given to equity holders but the number one bases
    of their objection, and most of those many pages, appear devoted to objecting at how debtors have change the numbers in their disclosure statements once over the last month or so; to which I say hello? the oil market has been like a roller coaster and of course one numbers would change even from one week to another depending on where oil prices are or what OPEC says, etc. This argument will be thrown out easily if you ask me.

    But the issue of letting Noble off the hook so easily and giving a whopping $345 million cash to bondholders while the term lenders not getting anything may have grounds for modification such as taking some of that cash from bondholders and other lenders and give it to term lenders in return for a hefty right off by term lenders which would, in my view, actually increase the value of the company and shares.

    Objectors also request extension of the hearing for their discovery needs.

    Very interesting case. A relief rally is warranted..

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • insider_expert insider_expert Mar 30, 2016 12:46 AM Flag

    The deadline to file objections (by term lenders) with the court is tomorrow 4 pm eastern time which is now about 15 hours away. Although most likely, and as promised, they will file the objection before the deadline there is an slight chance that they may have been talking to the management and their lawyers behind the scene resulting in some kind of agreement hence avoiding such filing;

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • a lesson on their profound stupidity and lies based on deceptions. These moron already admited to being "TOTALLY WRONG" for a whole year in calling shreholders destructioin before the end of 2015 saying any restructuring will give shareholders nothing. But shameless that they are now they are asking 65% of what!!!
    These bozos were so taken aback by Paragon's plan of reorganization filed last Friday that rushed in swinging like the crazy lunitics they are. And of course they always have the FT that play the good cop role like the a sold out soulless crimial;

    These guys have already cost their naive followers and newbie Seeking Alpha readers MILLIONS of dollars by encouraging them to sell, rather than buy, when price was way under a dime; and now they are trying to make it up to those poor souls by sticking them this time from behind and acting as though they forgot their admited "totally wrong" over a year of track record and have discovered themselves to be new experts . They hide behind the corrupt Seeking Alpha as though they are writing for an institution although their writings is nothing but a blog about their individual opinion which is nothing but a shorpush with ulterior motives.

    These bunch should be ashamed of destruction they've caused to hard earned funds of their "followers" (read fools and newbies) and for trying to rob them again like the bandits they are.

    They should also be ashamed for insulting over and over the integrity of the management with FT calling the managements last disclosure statements of last Friday nothing more than a lie and a blunder and their attoneys nothing more than criminals who are lying to the shareholders and the world in order to line the managements pockets.

    People like FT and Alex and comapnies like Seeking Alpha (a forum where bandits make their money on back of naive people by posting whatever but trading the same stock accordingly) should be prosecuted and put away and hopefully one day they will be.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Paragon filed above with ch11 court last Friday; Reading this disclosure statement and plan of reorganization make one wonder if the company knows more about potential future contracts than they've let us know. If the numbers they've disclosed is anything close to what future holds the cap would zoom in the next couple of years to reach close to the previously disclosed $720 million equity value in their original disclosure to the court.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Term lenders have until March 30th to file their expected and preannounced objection which stopped the share price from going past 39 cents and then dropped to 34 cents and eventually brought it down to 22 cents where it is today also partly because of the uncertainty about what the judges response would be; So not only the objection but also kind of a worse case response by the judge both have been more than built into the share price. If no objection is filed by the next two days I certainly expect the share price to easily double from here. If the objection is filed we may still get a relief rally as markets don't like uncertainty. If objection is filed but somehow they are convinced to drop it by giving them portion of that hefty amount given to bondholders and get term lender to also write off a good chunk of their loan we may see a major run bigger than all the above. Of course if the objection causes the judge to cancel the whole ch11 filing then that would not be good at all for the equity holders. Of course there are other possibilities but with less than 48 hours left to the deadline lets just wait and see.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • insider_expert insider_expert Mar 23, 2016 6:26 PM Flag

    Seadrill Awarded 18-Month Contract Extension By Petrobras, Adding $32 Million In Backlog
    Mar. 23, 2016 5:19 PM ET|13 comments | About: Seadrill Limited (SDRL), Includes: PBR
    Fun Trading Fun Trading✔ Following(2,192 followers)
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    Summary

    Petrobras has been awarded an 18-month contract extension for the drillship West Tellus, commencing in April 2018 and ending October 2019.

    This contract extension is called a "blend and extend" deal where SDRL secured an extension, but agreed to reduce the day rate from $467k/d to $300k/d.

    Any new contract or contract extension is a positive and should be celebrated, in my opinion.

    Thank you FT.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Paragon's turn would come(recall Paragon has one of the best marketing team in the field with a very proactive and aggressive management).

    Also,oil will be needed for years to come with it's use increasing every year; In addition the ME fat cats can't live without their source of oxygen (read oil) and will sooner than later cause an spike in oil prices; Their next meeting (OPEC and non-OPEC_ on 4/17.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Don't know what but something is going on behind the scenes possibly negotiations between the long term lenders and Paragon as well as others involved to reach some kind of agreement without filimg otherwise an objection would have been filed already.

    Recall the main hearning for judge to okay the agreements already reached including rewarding of 65% of newly formed company to shareholders in less than two weeks away on April 6th.

    If everything goes well and judge pkays expect the shares zoom past a buck.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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