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Sony Corporation Message Board

insider_expert 38 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 3, 2015 12:41 AM Member since: Jan 6, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Insider Expert

    by president_abe Sep 23, 2015 9:24 AM
    insider_expert insider_expert Sep 24, 2015 12:45 AM Flag

    I totally agree. It appears to me that this management has done everything possible to destroy the share price and hurt the shareholders.

  • insider_expert by insider_expert Sep 23, 2015 12:57 PM Flag

    Someone on the Seeking Alpha had mentioned that the reason they hired two different firms is because their initial goal is to try and get an out of court restructuring first. Just looking at this matter and comparing the situation to other recently ch 11 companies I have to agree. I suppose if their initial intention was ch 11 you would not need two different firms as a single firm is more than enough but for an out of court restructuring, specially with many diverse investors paragon has, one possibly needs more help than one firm can provide if one wants this done in a short order. But I think if out of court in not possible they may look at other alternatives including ch 11 but the may first try to get a waiver on the covenants.

  • Reply to

    Convenants will be broken

    by panabryan Sep 23, 2015 8:19 AM
    insider_expert insider_expert Sep 23, 2015 9:10 AM Flag

    presuming there is no capital restructuring and debt buy backs (with a big discount) and both Petrobras contract are cancelled and the company does not find any new business between now and second half of 2016 and that oil prices stays depressed until then,,,you could be right...But you need to agree that those are too many unknown variables and possibilities to write off and say the will file ch11.

    For starters they hired those two law firms for "capital restructuring" and other above mentioned issues nobody knows what will happen for example to price of oil or whether they be able to sign new contracts for drilling ...and as for Petrobras the matter is still in negotiations...

    While I respect your opinion and others here that are thinking ch 11 is imminent I would also hope that you also admit the obvious fact that nobody, even the management, does not know at this stage where we are heading until all options are looked at and all major investors and bond holders are spoken with...

  • The options are:
    1- file chapter 11: not likely as no judge will agree and management would rather avoid a definite lawsuit by shareholders;

    2-Get an out of court settlement with lenders: more possible despite getting all lenders to agree may be difficult but enough numbers may come to the table and agree;

    3-Buy back bond on the cheap: Possible but difficult to pull as it would take months and the price will keep going up the more they buy;

    4- Do nothing to see where oil goes from here: unlikely as they would not have hired those expensive firms for nothing.

    PGN is actually in pretty good shape at this moment; Sure they have nearly 2.5 billion in debt but but they also have nearly $800 million in cash, $1.4 billion in backlog, and are CFC positive this year and for most of the next even with Petrobras cancellation and even if the oil prices stay depressed. On top of that their first loan payment is not due until 2019. Then why hiring of these two wxpensive firms? Management if forcasting that if oil remains depressed they will begin going FCF negative sometime towards the end of 2016 and if it continues they may not be able to make their loan payment by 2019.

    I believe the management jumped the gun too early by hiring those firms for capital restructuring. This may have been partly because the CEO has seen with companies that ended up filing BK before and as such is a bit jumpy. Nonetheless takeing out all the credit line was a good move but there was absolutely no need to hire these firms at this time.

    You would think that as there are no urgency that they would take their time to make any decisions but I hear they want to do this sooner than later (possibly because of the expense associated with retaining those firms).

    But as the tittle of my article indicate neither those firms nor the management knows at this time how to proceed and what the ultimate decision will be util they poor over all the options and talk to all parties involved before they decide.

  • Paragon Offshore PLC (PGN): Impressive 2015 Guidance Underscores Bull Thesis
    August 28, 2015, 3:46 PM EDT

    It has been a bumpy ride (to say the least) for investors in Paragon Offshore PLC (NYSE:PGN) since my last report. The company reported their August fleet report on August 10 and their 2015 Q2 results on August 12.

    The call included surprisingly detailed guidance for 2015 and disclosed a contract dispute with Petrobras over the drillships DPDS 2 and DPDS 3, the two highest dayrate rigs in Paragon’s fleet.

    2015 Guidance underscores Bull Thesis

    In terms of updating the models after the Q2 earnings call and August fleet report, the company gave fairly detailed guidance for 2015. If we compare this full year guidance with the 1st half results, we see that the investment thesis is playing out as expected operationally.

  • insider_expert insider_expert Sep 21, 2015 3:07 PM Flag

    Loss of petrobras contracts are not a done deal and they are still talking. Even the one that petrobras terminated effective 9/15 is still being discussed because the controversy over the 150 days maintenance has not been settled and may end up in litigation of sort.

    But even if (and that is IF) they lose all their petrobras contract we are talking about a total of $400 million ...remember they added $200 million in backlog in July and another $200 new contract will compensate for the whole Petrobras matter's worse case.

    Also, NOBODY is included the future price of oil into all this because nobdy knows where oil will be months from now. As it stand oil is been once again trending up and this may play the biggest factor yet.

  • insider_expert insider_expert Sep 18, 2015 2:17 PM Flag

    The two firms were hired mainly to negotiate with bond holders and guide then with their capital (cash) management specially bond buybacks;
    The bk is completely out of question even if management wanted to go that route because you just don't file for bk, and no judge will bk, when your every last Qs have been cash positive and the same in anticipated for the next couple of year even if oil prices stays low and they loose all their contract with Petrobras (in addition note that even with the one contract terminated with Petrobras the case is not settled yet and company has claims against the termination).

    No bk judge would ever grant or even consider bk for a company that is paying all its bills on time, is cash positive every Q and has 100s of million in cash and no debt payment until 2019.

    Just think about that...

    Now the question then becomes why is the share price and bonds crashed then. Well I remember few years ago back in 2008-2009 many companies shares crashed but for most part they all recovered. The same is true today for many offshore drillers and others (ie GDP, EXXI, etc).

    As an example I remember back in one particular company, Pier 1 (PIR), whose shares tumbled to a dime with BK speculation being rampant while many were pointing to their cash flow and cash in hand despite their mountain of debt, almost identical to PGN. Those of us that looked at the fundamentals rather then the hype and rumors benefitted greatly. By the way Pier1, is still around and doing fine. By the way its shares reached a high of over $26 1bout 3-4 years later for an staggering profit of over 26000%.

  • This news is been out since 11:43 this morning but does not appear on Yahoo yet. Nonetheless, while the downgrade is obviously not good it indicates that S&P does not expect a BK as it is not mentioned at all. Google to find the article.

  • insider_expert by insider_expert Sep 17, 2015 2:03 PM Flag

    spoke with investor relations finally; Had a very frank discussion; The following is the summary of my take:

    1- The firms where hired because they needed help to manage their capital and all the cash they have and get help what to do with the cash including investment, etc

    2- they are surprised that investors are jumping to the conclusion that bankruptcy is the reason for attaining these firms; According to IR while nothing, can be guaranteed, filling for BK is not the reason for hiring these firms and that in every step of the way they will keep share holders in mind.

    Basically I came away with the feeling that they are not even thinking bankruptcy but solely capital management and needed help and hence these firms. I asked why they won't provide more information and answer was that they did not want to limit their options or expose what their top intentions may be; Again it definitely sounded to me that BK was not in the cards at all at this time.

  • Reply to

    Another peer - RDC $2.3B market cap

    by staccani Aug 31, 2015 3:10 PM
    insider_expert insider_expert Aug 31, 2015 6:47 PM Flag

    AAAMMMAAAZzzing. I just looked up RDC and like you was astonished to see that PGN's market cap is nearly 1/30th of another company in the same offshore sector with very similar numbers except that PGN even has more cash and more secure future should oil drops again.

    But then again markets are not rational in the short term but eventually bargains and jewels are discovered and looking at PGN's last two earnings and comparing its market cap to some of these other ones in the very same sector I have no doubt PGN's market cap will eventually catch up with likes of RDC...

    TRANSLATION: PGN is a 30 bagger.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • insider_expert insider_expert Aug 26, 2015 5:52 PM Flag

    I realize that Pismire but as you know the June report hit it out of the park beating both on the top and bottom numbers by a mile. I was only pointing out that today the company released March's financials (which we already know anyways)....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Paragon Offshore plc (PGN) -NYSE
    0.6711 Down 0.1189(15.05%) 1:56PM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
    Add to Portfolio
    Income Statement Get Income Statement for:
    View: Annual Data | Quarterly Data All numbers in thousands
    Period Ending Mar 31, 2015 Dec 31, 2014
    Total Revenue 430,648 494,993
    Cost of Revenue 250,696 256,682
    Gross Profit 179,952 238,311
    Operating Expenses
    Research Development - -
    Selling General and Administrative 11,019 12,372
    Non Recurring - 130,540
    Others 90,075 91,088

    Total Operating Expenses - -
    Operating Income or Loss 95,653 4,311
    Income from Continuing Operations
    Total Other Income/Expenses Net 19,060 3,133
    Earnings Before Interest And Taxes 97,918 7,444
    Interest Expense 30,195 28,007
    Income Before Tax 67,723 (20,563)
    Income Tax Expense 6,565 (48,363)
    Minority Interest (31) 59

    Net Income From Continuing Ops 61,127 27,859
    Non-recurring Events
    Discontinued Operations - -
    Extraordinary Items - -
    Effect Of Accounting Changes - -
    Other Items - -
    Net Income 61,127 27,859
    Preferred Stock And Other Adjustments - -
    Net Income Applicable To Common Shares 61,127 27,859

  • Reply to

    If you turned 500K into 62K, what would you do

    by nefariouswu Aug 11, 2015 3:21 PM
    insider_expert insider_expert Aug 13, 2015 1:18 PM Flag

    Remember it is only a number change in your account and you still have your health, your education, your loved ones, and many many other much more important things in life. Just move on and don't look back..

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • insider_expert insider_expert Aug 13, 2015 11:39 AM Flag

    as they say I put my money where my mouth is...I've never liked pumpers or bashers...And I don't trust statistics or managements blowing hot air or being overly conservative or stupid (such as PGN's management ...They have broken the sound barrier in stupidity with their CCs).

    But I do trust ACTUAL numbers.....And PGN 100% hit it out of the park yesterday with their ACTUAL numbers and with their current cash reserve to head off any storm in oil market and be a DEFINITE survivor....With these numbers I won't be surprised if PGN is one of the early birds to start their dividend once again once the oil storm settles down.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I believe this is the last call to buy PGN at such low pps and it be be crawling up the wall of worry from here on as the earnings showed that the company can deliver even with oil in tank and is on solid grounds. The managements poor CC gives longs a second chance to add. This management sucks at giving CCs but they gave a worse forecast the previous CC and yet look at how great the earnings were. Consider their CCs worthless but pay attention to their actual numbers and dollars earned and you should do well. AIMHO.

    Disclosure: I added 90,000 shares this morning at average 0.68...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    UP 16%AH post earnings

    by insider_expert Aug 12, 2015 4:38 PM
    insider_expert insider_expert Aug 12, 2015 5:05 PM Flag

    I have not heard or read his comments yet but bleak comments coming from him is nothing new and he kind of has to protect the company by anticipating worse possible oil market. Nonetheless, such bleak comments by Stilley is nothing new, expected, and already more than baked in...

    PGN will zoom this time around and at lease get back to where it was 2-3 months ago before rumors of its demise were spread by the shorts. As such it will eventually reach 1.76-192 before next earnings.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • insider_expert by insider_expert Aug 12, 2015 4:38 PM Flag

    They hit it completely out of the park...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

25.76+1.04(+4.21%)Oct 2 4:03 PMEDT