Paragon continues to generate respectable numbers in the face of the worst oil industry downturn in years.
The market is completely wrong although it appears we are down mostly because of manipulation by shorts as they are panicking because they know the stock will eventually fly and they are trying their best to hold it down. On top of that the volume of only 1.4 million is near half of average daily volume and very anemic.
This is the kind of day you want to buy with both fists.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Place a sell limit order with GTC at a large price of say $10. Doing this will take your shares out of access by shorts.
The shorts have been caught with their pants down. After manipulating this stock by fear tactics, lies, made up stories, and dumping some share after shorting tons, their number is finally up and they know it.
The 37.7% of float adds up to about 28.7 million shares. And with PGN's short float of only 85 million and daily average volume of just over 2 million they'll try to manipulate again but but energy stocks are heading north
and no manipulation can stop this train.
But short squeeze has not happened yet and will not happen until we pass 3.35. Once that happens and if it holds for a day or two then shorts will seriously consider throwing in the towel and we should see a major short squeeze which should take shares easily to 4.98 within days. However in the path to 3.35 we have to first clear 2.19 following which we should have have several days of up days in a row until we reach 3.35.
Last move up by PGN between end of January to February 9 resulted in a move up of 69.2% over a 9 day period. However at that time the stock was destroyed as bad and a unjustly as this time and the future wasn't as clear as it is now. With latest press release we now know that Paragon's future is secured and actually they signed more new contracts for the first 2 months of this year, to the tune of nearly 300% more, than that of 2014.
Also, remember the number of shorts is a few million more this time around or the squeeze can get pretty ugly.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
REAL longs need to awake and alert as in the face of great FSR report released hours ago by Paragon some shorties are pretending to be longs and while calling the report "great" (since their lies and false rumors and baseless scare tactics has been so badly exposed that they've decided there is no use in denying such stellar report) while shifting to damage control mode and calling for a share price jump of a whopping and hugr "30 cents" a share!!!!!!!!!!!Nice try shorty but you don't give a haircut of nearly $16 a share based on false rumors and then when you are proven completely wrong give back only 30 cents. Admittedly some of that $16 hair cut all the way from $17 to a buck is because of the ongoing concern about oil prices (which it appears even that portion was partially unjustified in the Paragon's case as they actually signed on %300 new contract year to date compared to last year) but by far, and as we've been saying here over and over and Paragon management is said as much in their IR phone conversations) is been due simple scare tactics and spreading of false rumors about pending bk, etc etc by bunch of low life short sellers and their paid bashers.
Of course I don't expect to open at $17 today; But spreading the rumors that we'll go up only 30 cents? Come on shorty; I know you are in damage control mode and will try all tool in your arsenal to hold PGN from soaring in the face of and FSR report which even you can't deny it is "great" but I give you a friendly advice: get out of your short positions ASAP before your your HOUSE OF CATDS comes crashing down on you.
How high do I think the share price would go? I think I let Mr. Market decide that; But as far as I am concerned if PGN was worth $17 a few months ago before the oil crash it should be worth more than $17 once oil stabilizes at a higher price as Paragon and its brilliant management have shown they can excel even in the face of the worse oil market in as many years.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Wow...Not even including the "POSITIVE" contract negotiation in the middle east (could also include some with Iran for caspian sea and persian gulf; if so they be huge) they manage to add year to date $92 million in contract backlog which is nearly a who[[png %300 increase compared to the $32 million added duting "the comparison period in 2014". This is on the top of the "new contracts" shown in the most recent FSR ( of which North sea alone was is a jaw dropping $700 million...Why Jaw dropping? because not only all above numbers are very big numbers but that they were obtained in such a terrible environment with oil prices at multi-year lows.
Also, they announced TODAY that it has repaid the outstanding prospector term loan and that they expect that prospector will "REMAIN" an unrestricted subsidiary.
So why was share price crushed from over $17/ share to today's jush above $1/share and company priced for bankruptcy? All because of rumors and scare tactics used by short sellers in fertile low oil price environment.
And what are shorts sellers doing now that their lies have been exposed? They are in damage control mode spreading rumors that the news is "great and deserves a share price jump of 30 cents" !!! Wow!!! A whole 30 cents after pummeling the price all the way from $17 to $1 based on lies? A mere 30 cents is not equal to $16 hair cut your manipulations and lies has caused this great company with a top noych greatest management I've ever seen. NO NO NO shorty. It is payback time through a major short squeeze.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
While the shorts have bashed and bashed and manipulated this stock the market seems to have fallen for their rhetoric and manipulation hence current crushed low share price. However, no matter how you look at it Paragon is actually in better shape with better prospects with contracts in better part of the world and in a more sweet part (shallow waters) of their sector with an aggressive management that stopped dividend earlier than many other in the sector in order to save cash and an eye on the future hence the prospector deals and yet compared to most others in the sector PGN is been pummeled.
This will not stand and expect PGN to shoot back up as market always corrects its errors.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
If not for the $1.1 billion one time impairment, done mostly to benefit on taxes, the numbers look great. The 10 K also touches upon tough 2014 conditions because of the oil prices, Pemex (which shows only 160 million of over 2 billion back log coming from Pemex.
They also list the backlogs for 2015, 16, 17, & 18. Could a misunderstanding about these numbers be partly responsible for the stocks recent performance? The backlogs ONLY indicate the estimates based on contracts already signed or letters of intents already received by end of 2014. Hello? Of course the numbers are going to look disturbing at first glance because who for example is going to sign a contract for 2018 in 2014? To illustrate this for example the numbers for 2015 does not include the $700 million N. Sea signed since the end of 2014...And so on as further contracts will come in for 2015, 16, 17, & 18 as time passes.
I believe the way this backlog table was done and without proper explanation and not enough press releases about newly signed contracts as time passes (ie the $700 million mentioned above) may have spooked some investors and given ammunition to shorts to cut the knees from under the share price as they have done.
It was also interesting to see that some ultradeep new and expensive floaters are trying to so work in shallow waters because of new conditions in the industry. Of course this bode well for paragon as they are expert in shallow waters and their rigs does not cost them an arm and a leg and they have established contacts and hence they seem to be in the sweet part of the market and very competitive.
Bottomline Paragon's numbers are exceptionally great and if not for one time impairment the earning would have been be much more than $4.25 per diluted share of 2013. As for 2015, add the newly signed $700 million in North Sea and already the numbers look great. And remember this is only March with 9 more months remaining.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The IR director is right on the money and his repeated assertion that recent share price drop is not but games played by short sellers are also what many here have been saying but I feel better hearing that from an insider.
Like I have been telling people here there is absolutely nothing to justify such a a huge drop of over 70% in share prices in less than 1 month and that this smells of short sellers but that this presents longs with opportunity to accumulate. This stock should be at a minimum $5 today in this terrible oil market and around $10 when oil goes upto 60-70 and $20 when oil at around 80.
I plan to also call the IR the first chance I get.
ps. I added more shares this morning.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I know it must be difficult to watch the tape as day after day the stock is been sinking; In this regards I have the following to say:
1- My in DEPTH look into workings of the company and speaking to some "in the know" tells me that this company will continue to be there years from now and all the repeat articles about Mexico deals, etc are the work of of the huge short sellers of this stock at this time. However, like always they have over played their hand and will get burned pretty bad shortly through a short squeeze as the drop in stock is mostly based on manipulation and press news articles (like that of rehashing old news today in an article about Pemex resulting in 10% hair cut;
2- This company is on an extremely solid ground and whether the banks agree to a refi or not is irrelevant as company can always do a revolver with only 1/3 of the credit available to it as of today.
3- Remember many biggest market investors of all time made most of their money when the stock they believed in and were holding were crushed for no good reason or by short sellers as they used the opportunity to add and add and add to their share. So is the story of PGN. Look at current price manipulation and crash as the biiggest opportunity and grab shares with both fists.
4- While short selling is the main reason for stock price going down other obvious factors such as oil prices, the sector getting kicked around, and weak hands who are in and out for short term profit has also hurt the share price.
5- The company, just in the past few months, has signed contracts worth nearly $700 million dollars in the North sea alone and to price such a company's cap at only $100 million is not only ridiculous but it signals a life time opportunity for the longs.
So don't panic my friend. Is it keeps going down because of manipulation and othes above mentioned factors add with both fists. If it begins going up as but with one eye on the short sellers but keep believing in PGN.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
This company is going to be fine. Their refi for will come through but even if it does not they THREE time as much line of credit and they can do a revolver without any problem. So all this talk about financing is for nothing and completely irrelevant;
As for as their contracts in Mexico they are a very small part of their business and whether they renew or cancel these their contracts it will have a very minimum effect and hence this too is irrelevant.
The article today about Pemex which caused to stock to tank yet another 10% was, in my opinion, financed by the shorts as there was nothing new in there but it intentionally did not indicate that no matter what it will not have any significant material effect on the company.
This company and the management are both going to be fine and once the sector turns around you'll be looking at a major SHORT SQUEEZE;
Once the refiners come back online from their overhaul in 4-6 weeks the drillers will pop except the pop most likely will happen way in advance and any day in anticipation as markets are forward looking.
I am back in full force. Paragon is a great company with most their contracts oversees and none with Saudi sharks and negligible amount with Mexico
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Thanks for the kind words but I do feel for you; My loss was about 40% but unfortunately included all my capital as I went against my own advise and went in big about 2-3 weeks ago and then added as it went down. It is terrible feeling because I worked very hard at my job to save that capital for last few years. Frankly I was thinking of making some money here so I wouldn't have to work as hard because I am feeling the age getting better of me...
But i should add this: I would never even think about suicide over money and neither should you my friend. Life is too precious...
Short sellers have us by the balls and they are not letting got. Despite my sincere and educated belief, following much research and readings, that PGN is extremely oversold and undervalued and should be around $3.5-5.0 right now, I can't risk the remainder of my capital.
I just bailed with a huge loss as my average was around $2.50.
I apologize to anyone who may have wanted to sell earlier but may have not because of several postings including that of mine.
I am very disappointed but had to throw in the towel.
Yes you should definitely be buying at this extremely low bargain price but first begin by nibbling...I believe once short sellers let this thing go it will fly.
Sorry to hear you lost all your money on this stock.
I don't think anyone expected PGN to be taken down so aggressively by short sellers using the dividend issue as an excuse whereas many many other energy stocks have done the same but none that I know of been crushed like PGN; It almost sounds as though somebody amongst short sellers decided PGN makes a good prey because of relatively lower stock price to begin wit hand hence ability to manipulate it easier without risking alot of money. I believe he low stock price of 3.35 and yet paying a dividend gave them a heads up for mass attack once divided was cut (I bet they already knew divided cut was coming as they have for many other energy stocks).
Nonetheless, above explanation is not going to help you. But morale of this explanation is be very care going all in on any stock below $5 and always always avoid margins no matter what.
I have even taken into consideration what happened with DO and PEMEX and how PGN has only 3 of its 11 rigs in that region contracted beyond may which may spell issues for the other 8. The point here is that first of all may is still 2-3 months away and by then oil prices could be even higher and secondly PEMEX needs rigs just as DO and PGN need PEMEX and DO cancellation is just a negotiating tactic as every expert agrees...even in the very unlikely event of some of those rigs sitting idle for awhile this does not justify 50% share drop as even DO is down only 15% since the cancellation news hit and was up yesterday despite being the company with actual cancellations...
Again I think 50% drop is over the top and completely unjustified and overdone even considering every and all issues of concern.
PGN is down exactly 50% in less than a month and since FEB 9th on a better than expected earnings but partly because they took out the dividend which should also be considered positive in this environment as it saves cash;
As for the future PGN is in the same boat as other drillers but most others are either up since FEB 9th or are down only fractionally...
I have gone over all the PGN news releases, earnings, and announcements in this past 30 days as well as other news concerning other drillers including HERO's contract cancellations, etc but simply don't see the reason why PGN is been cut in half but others in the sector are for most part doing fine.
Is it shorts playing games or can anyone explain 50% drop in nearly 3 weeks with no major bad news ...Could it be that somebody knows something that retailers don't? could it be combination of these factors plus some margin calls?
Frankly I am at a loss to explain such steep drop in share prices but think this is totally unjustified and in due time PGN will come roaring back once they let it go.. I think this is an exceptional opportunity and
while added some yesterday plan to add much more today.
Any inputs or opinions about the above?
3:15 am Transocean beats by $0.20, beats on revs (RIG) : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.95 per share, $0.20 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.75; revenues fell 1.5% year/year to $2.24 bln vs the
3:15 am Transocean beats by $0.20, beats on revs (RIG) : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.95 per share, $0.20 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.75; revenues fell 1.5% year/year to $2.24 bln vs the $2.1 bln consensus.
Fleet revenue efficiency was 95.3%, up from 92.6% in the third quarter. Revenue efficiency on ultra-deepwater rigs was 95.4%, up from 91.6% in the prior quarter
Fleet utilization was 72%, versus 75% in the third quarter
Contract backlog was $21.2 billion as of the February 17, 2015, Fleet Update Summary.
Fleet Average Revenue Efficiency 95%
Capital Expenditures $1.8 billion
2:58 am Ensco beats by $0.32, reports revs in-line (ESV) : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $1.68 per share, $0.32 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $1.36; revenues fell 7.6% year/year to $1.16 bln vs the $1.16 bln consensus.
Reported utilization, which includes the impact of uncontracted rig days and planned downtime, declined to 86% from 90% in fourth quarter 2013. The decline was mostly due to year-over-year increases in uncontracted rig days.
Contract drilling expense increased to $514 million from $500 million a year ago. The previously reported sale of jackups operating offshore Mexico influenced the year-to-year comparisons. Excluding the net impact of this sale, contract drilling expense increased 2% to $510 million. Reductions in certain discretionary compensation and insurance costs partially offset the incremental expense associated with four newbuild rigs.
even excluding goodwill impairment the losses were in tens of millions and they missed earnings expectation by analyst big time...Also, who care whether you call some of this hyge loss goodwill impairment ; they are still losses and a direct hit to the value of the shares...in addition it clearly indicates what a bad investment their latest aquisition was...and this goodwill impairment may going on for several more quarters or untill they file bk.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
The big drop just beginning. Shorts are going to go after it with vengeance and for good reason: you can't have $3.86 BILLION in debt and yet show $386 MILLION in losses in a single quarter and not expect crowd worrying about bankruptcy;
The short will have a field few days; And remember when any stock get a substantial hair cut because of poor earnings the correction process always last for awhile and is never limited to a single day.
I expect the knees to be cut from under the share price.
It will be ugly...
Sentiment: Strong Sell